Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today other than the Police Credit Union trimming rates. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
BNZ trimmed most of its TD rates today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS, EVEN IF MARGINALLY LOWER
June quarter PPI results reinforce the pressures on business – and the fact that inflation away from the consumer basket is still running hot. Prices producers charged in the quarter were +4.2% higher than a year ago. Prices producers paid for their inputs were up +4.5% on the same basis. This is not evidence inflation is contained, but to be fair these are smaller increases than in the March quarter so they are easing from high levels.

A VIRTUOUS MIX
In complete contrast, the price pressure on the rural sector is low. In fact, led by substantial reductions in interest costs and also assisted by big falls in fuel costs, farm expenses are up only +0.6% in June 2025 than a year ago (excluding livestock). For sheep & beef units it is up +3.7%, for dairy farms it is -1.1% lower, and for horticulture it is up just +0.4% from a year ago. Given that meat, dairy and horticulture prices are all high and rising, and these costs are low or falling, farmers haven’t seen as good a set of economic conditions in a very long time. And they have captured the policy reins of government too. They have little reason to whine.

GROWING, BUT BY LESS
The resident population of New Zealand was 5,324,700 as at June 2025, and estimate built on the 2023 Census and adjusted by births, deaths and net migration. That is +34,700 or +0.7% more than a year ago. (This June data is about -10,000 less than previously reported because they are using the 2023 Census base now.) We should also note that the pandemic death spike has normalised now (although compared to almost all other countries it was a relatively small anomaly). For reference, Australia’s population is 27,660,000, having risen +206,670 in the past year.

NZX50 DIPS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.2% so far today. It is now up +1.5% over the past five days and down -0.9% year-to-date. But it is still sitting +2.2% higher year-on-year. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down almost -1.0% so far today and keeping a lid on today’s overall result. a2 Milk has surged while Mercury, Genesis & Heartland advance; Hallenstein, Kathmandu, Napier Port & Vector have slipped.

RESULTS UPDATES
Our profile pages for Contact Energy (CEN), a2 Milk (ATM), Freightways (FRW) and Mercury (MCY) are all now updated for 2025 annual results.

EYES ON DAIRY PRICES
There is another full dairy auction tomorrow morning, the first since last week’s busted Pulse event which was abandoned without result. So it will be two full weeks since we got any meaningful dairy market signals. The derivatives market suggests we could be in for a price pullback with SMP down almost -2% and WMP down more than -5%. If it actually turns out that was, it will garner quite a bit of attention.

HAWKESBY A HAWK, DOVE, OR STEADY?
Of course, the big event tomorrow will be the RBNZ MPS. Everyone expects a -25 bps rate cut to 3.00. Of more importance will be how the central bank sees where the OCR is heading. ‘Neutral’ and the most expected outcome is that the RBNZ signals the OCR easing one more cut. In that event, swap rates will likely hold. But if they see more than one more cut, swap rates could fall sharply tomorrow. A hold decision will see swap rates rise, probably just as sharply.

A 3½ YEAR HIGH – ANOTHER VIRTUOUS MIX
In Australia, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index surged 5.7% in August to its highest since February 2022, after a small rise in July. All components rose: family finances compared to a year ago rose +6.2%, while expectations for the next 12 months climbed +5.4%. Views on the economy improved, with the 12-month outlook up +7.6% and the 5-year outlook rose +5.4%, both above historical norms. The time to buy a major household item index gained +4.2%, while unemployment expectations fell -2.4%, still below the long-run level of 129. Their long spell of consumer pessimism may be ending, though sustaining momentum could require more easing. This survey underscores why the second-term Albanese government is riding ever higher in their polls, and the right-wing opposition parties are in disarray.

SWAP RATES STABLE
Wholesale swap rates are will probably be little-changed today ahead of the RBNZ for the short durations, but up for the longer durations. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.14% on Monday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +6 bps at 4.33%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.77%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +6 bps at 4.63% and up +2 bps at 4.47% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is up +3 bps from yesterday, now at 4.34%.

EQUITIES LACKLUSTER
The local equity market is now down -0.2% in late Tuesday trade. The ASX200 is however down -0.7% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down -0.1%. Hong Kong is also down -0.1% at its open but Shanghai is up +0.1%. Singapore has opened up +0.3%. Wall Street ended its Monday session with the S&P500 virtually unchanged in lackluster trading with more than a hint of risk aversion despite some good earnings reports.

OIL FIRMER
The oil price in the US is +50 USc today, now just over US$63/bbl and the international Brent price is now just under US$66.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE SOFT
There have been trades today that shows the price has dipped to $56. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD SOFTISH
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$8 from this time yesterday at US$3336/oz.

NZD FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from yesterday at this time at 59.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 50.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is up a bit less than +20 bps at 67.2.

BITCOIN ON HOLD
The bitcoin price is now at US$115,790 and up +0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been low at just on +/-0.9%.

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