How much oil is actually getting through the Strait of Hormuz? And is the reward for the Pentagon worth the resources it is expending?
Those are some of the key outstanding questions as the Trump administration touts some success in steering tankers through a southern channel of the strait along the coast of Oman.
The operation has allowed the U.S. to claw back some control from Iran over the passage, which has been largely closed since late February. But these efforts require significant resources from the Pentagon, and the reward is just a fraction of gain in the amount of oil traversing the strait compared to prewar levels.
The administration’s latest measures appear to have at least prevented global oil prices from jumping even higher, though the Brent crude price stood at $94.39 going into this week — up from where it had begun the week prior.
It has not alleviated the pressures Republicans are feeling over the economy and the issue of affordability as the midterm elections in November inch closer.
Petras Katinas, a research fellow in energy and defense with the Royal United Services Institute, said Friday that only three or four vessels have passed through the strait on a daily basis in the month of August — far below the numbers in February, when 35 ships passed inbound and 39 outbound.
U.S. officials, however, told Axios that 40 tankers traversed the waterway Friday night through the southern channel off Oman. They also said the effort had facilitated the transit of about 16 million barrels to the global energy market.
Those figures would represent a major jump in ships transiting the waterway in recent weeks.
Katinas sounded a skeptical tone on the figures.
“I know the White House claims … around 15 to 20 vessels passed the Strait of Hormuz [per day], yet we’ve learned the White House math is not very strong,” he told The Hill.
The United Kingdom’s Navy’s Maritime Trade Operations center also put out a lower estimate, stating that, since Aug. 7, very few vessels have openly transited the strait.
The costs of getting more ships out are expensive, and there are risks to the operation, most notably that it could draw fire from Iran.
“There is a challenge … to the extent that this kind of covert shipping of oil is going on, the extent to which it starts to become more significant, therefore less easy to hide, and perhaps also therefore a more open provocation to Iran,” said Mona Yacoubian, the director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
She suggested the bigger the Pentagon’s operation gets, the more it could attract Iranian attacks.
“We’ve seen the Iranians respond to this kind of a thing already in the past, so it could be that it’s in a bit of a catch-22, where as long as the amounts that are being secreted out are not massive and significant, that type of an operation may be able to continue and … be done without enormous resources,” Yacoubian said.
She added, “But it then doesn’t really have much of an impact on the global markets, which is really the effort here.”
The U.S.-led operation has helped empty tankers enter the Gulf from the Arabian Sea through the strait, pick up oil from countries in the Middle East and then exit, according to Axios.
Such an effort requires significant resources to get a limited amount of oil through the strait. Roughly 20 Navy warships are currently in the Gulf of Oman, including two aircraft carrier strike groups, as well as other military equipment needed to intercept Iranian drones and missiles.
The difficulties those duties carry was reflected in this month’s drama surrounding the USS Abraham Lincoln, which recently returned to port after a lengthy deployment that triggered warnings about mental health crises and poor conditions on the ship.
What the U.S. is moving through the strait is also not enough to cover demand, regardless of the true amount.
“Time depletes global stockpiles further because there’s still a deficit of oil coming out of the Strait of Hormuz every day, even with U.S. military power shuttling oil through, and nobody has a good read on how much is going through,” said Rosemary Kelanic, the director of Middle East Engagement at Defense Priorities.
“Maybe it’s 3 million barrels a day, maybe it’s 5 million barrels a day, but it’s not prewar levels. And as long as that’s the case, it’s depleting U.S. and global inventories, and that is decreasing the buffer before prices spike,” she continued.
In an attempt to more quickly bring an end to the conflict, President Trump this week promised an “economic D-Day” and a “crushing” operation to “cripple” Iran as he publicly stepped back from any diplomatic avenues with Tehran.
Those remarks seemed to contribute to oil prices rising at week’s end, as markets feared it signaled a longer war.
On Friday, Trump said the U.S. has no lack of military options in the region, while expressing confidence again in U.S. control of the Strait of Hormuz.
“We’re seeing what happens,” he told reporters ahead of boarding Air Force One en route to South Carolina, adding that the U.S. has “total control of that entire region having to do with the Strait of Hormuz. And that means well into it, the land areas.”
Yacoubian said these public reassurances are a part of the administration’s public relations strategy but don’t necessarily mirror reality.
“To be fair, we aren’t seeing storage tanks run dry yet. We are not at that crisis moment that many have feared,” she said. “Something is at play. What it is exactly and how sustainable it is, I think those have been questions from the start.”
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