Azerbaijan’s map reads like a warning label. Russia looms to the north, Iran presses against its southern border, Armenia remains a difficult neighbor, and two crucial partners—Israel and Turkey—are increasingly at odds. In his latest report, Gabriel Colodro examines how Baku turns that dangerous geography into a foreign policy built on balance, commerce, and carefully calibrated friendships.
The story begins in Jerusalem, where 13 Muslim professionals from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan joined a visit organized by Sharaka, the nongovernmental organization created after the 2020 Abraham Accords to encourage ties between Israelis and communities across the Arab and Muslim worlds. Holocaust remembrance and Israeli society were on the program, but security followed the visitors into every conversation.
For Azerbaijan, choosing one camp is not a realistic option. The country buys Israeli weapons, treats Turkey as an indispensable ally, trades with Russia, shares a frontier with Iran and seeks lasting peace with Armenia. Nargiz Mammadova of the CASPIA Center says Baku cannot pretend that turmoil in Moscow or Tehran is someone else’s problem.
That vulnerability became concrete on March 5, when Azerbaijan said four drones arriving from Iran struck its Nakhchivan exclave, injuring four people and damaging an airport and a school. Iran denied responsibility. Researcher Farid Shukurlu says the incident showed that neutrality alone cannot shield Azerbaijan from regional conflict.
Israel offers military technology and a defense relationship Shukurlu describes as being “at an all-time high.” Yet he insists Azerbaijani territory will never be used to attack another state.
Oil supplies another layer of strategic glue. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline carries Azerbaijani crude through Georgia and Turkey, with some shipments continuing by sea to Israel. Closing it would cost all three countries, giving Baku a powerful reason to keep Israeli-Turkish friction under control.
Azerbaijan has already hosted formal and informal talks aimed at preventing Israeli and Turkish forces from colliding in Syria. That mediator role may prove as valuable as its weapons contracts or pipelines.
Read Colodro’s full article and watch his video report for a closer look at the people behind Azerbaijan’s balancing act—and the mounting pressure on Baku to find the middle ground before its partners collide.