Tensions are soaring between Russia and the UK, with the Kremlin threatening to bomb British military bases over support for Ukraine.
The UK announced this week that it would allow Kyiv access to classified technology to produce its own Storm Shadow (or Scalp) long-range cruise missiles, following reports that British drones were used in strikes into Russian territory.
A US intelligence report earlier this month warned that Russia could attack Nato within weeks, with the window of threat spanning until 2029. So what could that look like?
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GAMING NEWS
Rockstar releases GTA VI preview
Caption: GTA VI website dislplayed on a screen and PlayStation DualSense controller are seen in this illustration photo taken in Krakow, Poland on July 1, 2026. (Photo by Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
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Gaming fans have been given a fresh look at the long-awaited Grand Theft Auto VI, with 26 minutes of new footage released by the franchise’s producer, Rockstar Games.
‘Extended look’ now live
The “extended look” debuted on Netflix on Thursday evening.
Six hours later, it was released by Rockstar Games on YouTube.
It comes more than 18 months after the last official teaser trailer.
Dual protagonists
New footage featured sprawling cityscapes, gun battles and high-speed pursuits while offering a glimpse of the game’s new graphics and world-building.
Caption: This handout courtesy of Rockstar Games taken on December 4, 2023 shows a video grab of the trailer of “Grand Theft Auto 6” video game. The first trailer for “Grand Theft Auto VI” was officially released ahead of schedule December 4, 2023 due to a leak, touting a 2025 release for the next chapter of the massively successful video game franchise. (Photo by Rockstar Games / AFP) / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE – MANDATORY CREDIT “AFP PHOTO / Rockstar Games” – NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS – DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS (Photo by -/Rockstar Games/AFP via Getty Images)
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Caption: CANADA – 2026/08/25: In this photo illustration, the Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA 6) logo is seen displayed on a smartphone screen. (Photo Illustration by Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
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Grand Theft Auto VI follows protagonists Jason Duval and Lucia Camino, who become increasingly embroiled in a criminal conspiracy in the fictional state of Leonida.
What else to expect
The preview showed the couple fighting their way out of a drug pick-up after a police raid.
Vice City, which featured in previous editions of the series, also reappears in GTA VI.
Meanwhile, players’ actions can reportedly control how the characters’ story unfolds.
4 min read
No word yet on GTA Online
The footage illustrated GTA VI’s new and improved graphics, worthy of a game with a budget reportedly among the most expensive in video game history.
Rockstar is, however, yet to release details regarding GTA Online, having previously confirmed the game would initially be launched as a “single-player experience”.
Caption: EDINBURGH,SCOTLAND – AUGUST 27: A general view of The Rockstar North building in Edinburgh, the company behind the Grand Theft Auto video games, on August 27, 2026 in Edinburgh, Scotland. (Photo by Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images)
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The Man I Am
5 min read
Not long to wait now…
Pre-orders for the long-awaited game, which will be the popular franchise’s first installment since 2013, began on 25 June.
GTA VI is set to be available on Xbox and PlayStation consoles with a planned release date of 19 November, having been delayed on a number of occasions.
3 min read
3 min read
Improved graphics in GTA VI
Four things to know as death toll from Nepal flash flood rises
Hundreds of people have died following flash flooding in Nepal and Tibet, while search and rescue operations for the many who remain missing are proving difficult.
Caption: A drone view of firefighters conducting search and rescue operations at a damaged road leading to Gyirong Port after a mudslide, in Gyirong county, Shigatse, Tibet Autonomous Region, China August 28, 2026. cnsphoto via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS – THIS IMAGE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY. CHINA OUT. TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
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What caused the flooding?
A collapsed glacier near the border between Nepal and China’s autonomous region of Tibet on Wednesday resulted in a huge flood wave that surged through the region, bursting rivers banks, covering populated areas in thick mud, destroying houses and roads and blocking a key border crossing.
4 min read
Big Read
5 min read
Hundreds of casualties
Nepal Police confirmed on Friday that at least 475 people have died.
Hundreds have been rescued but hundreds more are unaccounted for across Nepal and Tibet.
Among the missing are 33 British nationals, including children.
Nepal’s government has released a list of over 537 foreign nationals who have been out of contact since the floods hit.
Second flood risks
Caption: This aerial image released on the Chinese social media platform Weibo account of the Lhasa Mobile Fire and Rescue Service on August 27, 2026, shows a barrier lake which formed after a landslide near where Nepal’s Chhochen Khola River flows into the Purepu Tsangpo River, in Gyirong county, in China’s Tibet region. A lake created after a mudslide hit the China-Nepal border faces a “high risk of breaching and sending floodwaters downstream”, Chinese state media reported on August 28, citing water authorities. The lake formed after a wall of mud and debris hit the border hub of Gyirong in Tibet on August 26, with hundreds reported missing. (Photo by Lhasa Mobile Fire and Rescue Detachment / AFP via Getty Images) / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE – MANDATORY CREDIT “AFP PHOTO / Lhasa Mobile Fire and Rescue Detachment” – HANDOUT – NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS – DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS
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Rescue operations have been hindered by fears of a second flood.
A new barrier lake at the flood site began to overflow on Friday temporarily halting efforts.
5 min read
UK offers support
The UK has offered £5m to help the Nepalese government.
Andy Burnham also offered for emergency responders to head to the affected region.
The Prime Minister described the situation as “very distressing and devastating”.
3 min read
Devastating floods
Caption: NUWAKOT, NEPAL- AUGUST 27: Earthmovers clear debris from Trishuli Bazaar in Nuwakot district, Nepal, on August 27, 2026, following devastating flash floods near the Nepal??”Tibet border. The sudden surge of water, mud and debris swept through the Bhotekoshi and Trishuli river systems, destroying homes, vehicles, roads, bridges and other infrastructure. Rescue and recovery operations are underway as authorities continue searching for survivors and people reported missing in the disaster. (Photo by Sunil Pradhan/Anadolu via Getty Images)
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Caption: A vehicle is seen in the aftermath of flash floods in Devighat in the Nuwakot district in Nepal, Thursday, Aug. 27, 2026. (AP Photo/Niranjan Shrestha)
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Caption: People work to clear the debris around their houses following flash floods and a mudslide in Trishuli, Nuwakot district, Nepal, August 28, 2026. REUTERS/Navesh Chitrakar
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Caption: EMBARGOED TO 1000 THURSDAY JULY 30
File photo dated 06/11/10 of a general view of an NHS logo. Health officials should set up a new system so NHS staff can anonymously blow the whistle on medics accused of sexual misconduct, leading doctors have said. The Royal College of Surgeons of England (RCS England) said that many workers “remain reluctant” to report sexual misconduct due to fear of repercussions. Issue date: Thursday July 30, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Dominic Lipinski/PA Wire
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How NHS spending on ADHD and autism has risen tenfold
Cuts to meet demand
A report by the NHS Alliance, which represents health trusts and hospitals, examined increased spending on ADHD and autism services across 42 regional NHS integrated care boards (ICBs) in England.
It found the uptick in funding required to meet soaring demand for ADHD diagnoses was forcing some NHS boards to cut crucial care in other areas to balance budgets.
5 min read
Explained
2 min read
Some of the numbers
One region saw a tenfold spending increase from 2024-25 to 2025-26, from £1.75m to £18m.
In another region, spend on adult ADHD services went from £11m in 2023-24 to £38m in 2024-25.
For the 2026-27 financial year, this is projected to rise to £51m.
What’s behind increased spending?
Under the Right to Choose initiative, the 800,000 people on NHS waiting lists for an ADHD assessment in England, have a legal right to NHS-funded private assessments.
Caption: File photo dated 03/10/14 of a hospital ward. NHS staff have been called “monkeys” and patients have refused to be treated by non-white staff amid a reported rise in racism across the health service, experts have said. The Society of Radiographers (SoR) said staff have reported a “noticeable” rise in racism from patients over the last 18 months, including patients calling staff “dirty foreigners” and talking about “people coming over here, taking our jobs”. Issue date: Tuesday August 4, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Peter Byrne/PA Wire
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Caption: Hands holding brain with ADHD, Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, mental disorder concept
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The NHS paid for 100,000 private ADHD assessments via the initiative last year, contributing to the steep rise in spending.
‘Huge’ fee variation
There are also “huge variations in the prices paid for services”.
The NHS Alliance report found assessment fees ranging from £300 to £3,000.
This possibility for profit has in turn caused a dramatic increase in private ADHD providers.
5 min read
Watch more from The i Paper
Opinion | “Fundamentally, ADHD assessments rely heavily on observable childhood behaviour,” writes Poppy Jay. “But there was no way on God’s green Earth that I, Poppy Jay, could afford to be disruptive. I would have come home to a cane, a slap or whatever object happened to be nearest. Usually a trainer, expertly lobbed at my face.” Read Poppy Jay’s full piece on @theipaper website. adhd #neurodivergent
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Norway’s King Harald dies aged 89
Norway’s King Harald V has died at the age of 89 after he was taken to hospital for a rare blood condition last week.
Caption: ***File Photo*** SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA – FEBRUARY 24: King Harald V of Norway arrives to view the ‘Kathleen Gillett Ketch’ at the Australian National Maritime Museum on February 24, 2015 in Sydney, Australia. The royal couple are in Australia for six days and will attend events in Canberra, Sydney and Perth. (Photo by Lisa Maree Williams/Getty Images)
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Europe’s oldest reigning monarch
The monarch passed away “peacefully” at Oslo University Hospital, the country’s royal family said. Harald was Europe’s oldest reigning monarch and had been admitted to hospital with haemolytic anaemia, which is caused by the rapid destruction of red blood cells.
Caption: File photo dated 06/06/14 of Queen Elizabeth II with King Harald of Norway during an International Ceremony with Heads of State at Sword Beach in Normandy to mark the 70th Anniversary of the D-Day landings. King Harald V of Norway has died aged 89 in Oslo and his 53-year-old son has become King Haakon VIII. Issue date: Friday August 28, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Chris Jackson/PA Wire
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Caption: FILE – King Harald of Norway waves after a wreath-laying ceremony, in Villons les Buissons, western France, June 5, 2014, as part of the commemoration of the 70th anniversary of D-Day. (AP Photo/Thibault Camus, File)
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A popular king
Harald reigned for 35 years and had been the first king born in Norway since the 14th century. King Charles paid tribute to his “dear cousin” praising him for his “warmth and humility”.
Caption: ***File Photo*** WHISTLER, BC – FEBRUARY 28: King Harald V (L) and Queen Sonja of Norway attend the Men’s 50 km Mass Start Classic cross-country skiing on day 17 of the 2010 Vancouver Winter Olympics at Whistler Olympic Park Cross-Country Stadium on February 28, 2010 in Whistler, Canada. (Photo by Alexander Hassenstein/Bongarts/Getty Images)
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Caption: FILE PHOTO: Norway’s King Harald V looks on during his visit to a military base in Warsaw, Poland May 10, 2012. REUTERS/Kacper Pempel/File Photo
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Harald, described as the ‘People’s King’, married a commoner and stood as a unifying figure for the country, especially during the 2011 bomb and gun attacks in Oslo.
Fleeing Nazi Germany
Following the Nazi invasion of Norway, Harald, then three, fled the country with his mother.
At first, they crossed into Sweden before then travelling to the US following invitation of Franklin D Roosevelt.
He became crown prince in 1957, and studied social science, history and economics at Balliol College in Oxford from 1960-62.
He met Sonja Haraldsen, the daughter of a businessman, and married her in Oslo Cathedral on 29 August 1968.
Harald ascended to the throne in 1991 following the death of his father, Olav.
A life in pictures
Caption: FILE – Norway’s Crown Prince Harald, with his wife Crown Princess Sonja, present their new son Prince Haakon Magnus, in the National Hospital, Oslo, July. 26, 1973, Prince Haakon was born on July. 20. (AP Photo, File)
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Caption: ***File Photo*** LONDON – OCTOBER 25: Norway’s King Harald V (R) and Queen Sonja sit in a carriage as they ride down The Mall on their way to Buckingham Palace on October 25, 2005 in London. They are visiting London to mark 100 years of Norway’s independence from Sweden (Photo by Gareth Cattermole/Getty Images)
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Caption: FILE – Norwegian Crown Prince Harald, left, Princess Sonja with their son Haakon, and King Olav pose for the photographers after the christening of Haakon in the Royal Palace Chapel in Oslo, Norway, Sept. 20, 1973. (AP Photo/Pool, File)
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health
Teenage girl has dissolvable heart implant fitted to chase rugby dream
Caption: EMBARGOED TO 0001 FRIDAY AUGUST 28
Undated family handout photo issued by Alder Hey Children’s Hospital of Lillie Yale, 14, who has become the first UK patient to have a dissolvable heart implant fitted to treat atrial septal defect (ASD). The device, known as Memosorb, acts as a scaffold for the heart to heal the hole itself before disappearing completely. Lillie’s mother Becci Nichols said doctors at Alder Hey Children’s Hospital went “above and beyond” for her daughter, as a traditional metal implant would mean Lillie giving up rugby, which she hopes to play professionally one day. Issue date: Friday August 28, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Becci Nichols/PA Wire
NOTE TO EDITORS: This handout photo may only be used for editorial reporting purposes for the contemporaneous illustration of events, things or the people in the image or facts mentioned in the caption. Reuse of the picture may require further permission from the copyright holder.
Photographer: Becci Nichols
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A teenage girl has become the first person in the UK to have a dissolvable implant fitted to close a hole in her heart that is around the size of a 10p coin.
Lillie Yale, from Warrington, faced having a permanent metal device, which would have hindered her dream of becoming a professional rugby player.
How the implant works
The implant will act as a scaffold for Lillie’s heart to heal over the coming years, before dissolving and leaving behind no trace.
The procedure was performed on the 14-year-old at Alder Hey Children’s NHS Foundation Trust in Liverpool in June.
It is the first time the device, known as MemoSorb, has been used on a patient with an atrial septal defect (ASD), a hole in the wall that divides the two upper chambers of the heart, in the UK.
Lillie is ‘healing perfectly’
Lillie’s mother Becci Nichols, 38, said her daughter is “healing perfectly” and has since ran a 5k and has returned to playing rugby.
“I’m really happy it’s all done now, and it’s amazing to know I was the first person in the UK to have this new type of implant,” Lillie said.
Caption: EMBARGOED TO 0001 FRIDAY AUGUST 28
Undated family handout photo issued by Alder Hey Children’s Hospital of their Interventional cardiology team Lillie Yale, 14, has become the first UK patient to have a dissolvable heart implant fitted to treat atrial septal defect (ASD). The device, known as Memosorb, acts as a scaffold for the heart to heal the hole itself before disappearing completely. Lillie’s mother Becci Nichols said doctors at Alder Hey Children’s Hospital went “above and beyond” for her daughter, as a traditional metal implant would mean Lillie giving up rugby, which she hopes to play professionally one day. Issue date: Friday August 28, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Alder Hey Children’s Hospital/PA Wire
NOTE TO EDITORS: This handout photo may only be used for editorial reporting purposes for the contemporaneous illustration of events, things or the people in the image or facts mentioned in the caption. Reuse of the picture may require further permission from the copyright holder.
Photographer: Alder Hey Children’s Hospital
Provider: Alder Hey Children’s Hospital/PA Wire
Source: PA
Caption: EMBARGOED TO 0001 FRIDAY AUGUST 28
Undated family handout photo issued by Alder Hey Children’s Hospital of Lillie Yale, 14, who has become the first UK patient to have a dissolvable heart implant fitted to treat atrial septal defect (ASD). The device, known as Memosorb, acts as a scaffold for the heart to heal the hole itself before disappearing completely. Lillie’s mother Becci Nichols said doctors at Alder Hey Children’s Hospital went “above and beyond” for her daughter, as a traditional metal implant would mean Lillie giving up rugby, which she hopes to play professionally one day. Issue date: Friday August 28, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Becci Nichols/PA Wire
NOTE TO EDITORS: This handout photo may only be used for editorial reporting purposes for the contemporaneous illustration of events, things or the people in the image or facts mentioned in the caption. Reuse of the picture may require further permission from the copyright holder.
Photographer: Becci Nichols
Provider: Becci Nichols/PA Wire
Source: PA
Caption: A VIAS staff member gives a demonstration of an alcolock alcohol lock in cars, at the presentation of a study by VIAS institute on the efficiency of the alcolock alcohol lock in cars, in Brussels on January 11, 2023. (Photo by ERIC LALMAND / BELGA / AFP) / Belgium OUT (Photo by ERIC LALMAND/BELGA/AFP via Getty Images)
Photographer: ERIC LALMAND
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Source: AFP
drink driving
Could alcolocks become mandatory for repeat drink-drivers?
International evidence shows alcolocks can reduce reoffending by up to 70%.
Police chiefs and road safety campaigners have written to the Prime Minister urging him to introduce alcolocks for repeat drink-driving offenders.
What are alcolocks?
Alcohol interlocks, known as alcolocks, are devices which prevent a vehicle from being started or driven unless the motorist passes a breath test.
Caption: Illustration picture shows a alcolock alcohol lock set during the presentation of a study by VIAS institute on the efficiency of the alcolock alcohol lock in cars, in Brussels, Wednesday 11 January 2023. BELGA PHOTO ERIC LALMAND (Photo by ERIC LALMAND / BELGA MAG / Belga via AFP) (Photo by ERIC LALMAND/BELGA MAG/AFP via Getty Images)
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Campaigners including the National Police Chiefs’ Council and the RAC urged the Government to introduce a mandatory alcolock programme for “high-risk and repeat drink-driving offenders”.
What campaigners said
An effective programme should make the use of an alcolock a mandatory condition of an offender returning to driving, backed by monitoring and appropriate rehabilitation. “It would prevent a vehicle being driven after drinking, rather than relying solely on a ban or penalty after the event.
Caption: File photo dated 26/11/14 of a pint of beer and a set of car keys on a bar in a pub in central London. More than a fifth (21%) of motorists have drunk alcohol after 10pm when needing to drive before 9am the following morning, a new survey suggests. Road safety charity IAM RoadSmart, which commissioned the poll, warned that drinking alcohol the night before getting behind the wheel can pose a “serious threat” because a “groggy head” means slower reaction times. Issue date: Friday July 18, 2025. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Philip Toscano/PA Wire
Photographer: Philip Toscano
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Source: PA
A closer look at the figures
How serious a problem is repeat drink-driving?
27,837
The number of British motorists who were convicted of drink-driving multiple times in the 11 years to 20 July, 2024.
Transport Department figures suggest an estimated 260 people were killed in crashes on Britain’s roads involving at least one driver over the legal alcohol limit in 2023.
Approximately 1,600 people were seriously injured.
What happens abroad?
Several countries such as Australia, Belgium, Canada and the US mandate the use of interlocks during sentencing of some drink-drivers.
This does not happen in the UK, where people lose their licence for at least 12 months, although offenders may be offered a reduced ban if they complete a rehabilitation course.
Explained
5 min read
2 min read
health
The surprise bonus benefits of four common vaccines
People who have had the shingles vaccine have a lower rate of some completely unexpected conditions, including heart attacks and strokes, a study found this week.
What did the study find?
Rates of heart disease and strokes were 9 per cent lower over seven years in Americans who got the new shingles vaccine.
This was compared with those who were vaccinated using a previous version, a study by the University of Oxford found.
This cuts heart disease by about the same amount as when people take a daily tablet to lower their blood pressure.
This is according to researcher Dr Maxime Taquet, associate professor at the University of Oxford.
The other vaccines with added benefits
The MMR jab not only protects against measles, but over the years cuts the rate at which children fall prey to ear infections, diarrhoea and pneumonia.
The vaccine against tuberculosis has been turned into a treatment for bladder cancer.
The HPV vaccine prevents not just cervical cancer but also throat cancer and some cancers of the penis and anus.
3 min read
More on health from The i Paper
High-protein snacks and drinks, including yoghurt, porridge pots, cereal bars and milkshakes, are more popular than ever. But their “health halo” could be obscuring the fact that some of these foods are not really that good for us, an analysis has found. In fact, some of the snacks could be seen as examples of so-called “protein washing” – when foods are marketed as healthy because of their high protein, when they actually should be eaten in moderation. You can read Clare’s full article on The i Paper’s website. #protein #proteinsnack
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Minute one: The attack begins
Russia might spend months laying the groundwork with surveillance and reconnaissance missions, the movement of special forces into the area or setting up a political or diplomatic scenario to justify an occupation – but any military move would be swift.
Russia could move its northern fleet to seize the Svalbard islands quickly, or fly airborne troops into the Norwegian archipelago from northern Russia. The islands are undefended but strategically useful, with a Russian mining presence. Tensions over Svalbard have been rising in recent years, with Russia accusing Norway of militarising the islands. Weeks before the invasion of Ukraine, a major telecommunications cable from the mainland to Svalbard was cut, apparently by Russian vessels.
Another possible target is the similarly undefended Åland Islands in the Baltic Sea close to Estonia, Sweden and Finland. The Finnish territory is demilitarised, partly autonomous and previously belonged to Russia. Vladimir Putin would probably deploy the 336th Naval Infantry Brigade based in Kaliningrad, or 76th Air Assault Division based in Pskov, Richard Hooker of the Atlantic Council said in a report earlier this year. This could happen with “little or no warning”, with these forces supported by commercial shipping or aircraft, and parts of the Russian Baltic Fleet.
Russia could also seize the Swedish island of Gotland in the Baltic Sea, giving it a greater foothold on a mostly Nato-owned coastline, and a gateway to defend St Petersburg.
Alternatively, Russia may decide to launch another land invasion in Eastern Europe. Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia or Poland, which share borders with Russia, are all possible targets. In this scenario, Putin might send in a small military force – perhaps in plainclothes – to establish a separatist enclave within the Nato country, ostensibly in support of an oppressed Russian minority.
Russia could also attempt to build a land bridge to its territory of Kaliningrad, through Lithuania. It could mask the preparations as a military exercise, Hooker says, before launching ground troops from Russia or Belarus, accompanied by heavy ballistic missile strikes.
Vladimir Putin speaks about authorising a special military operation in Ukraine’s Donbas region during a televised address on Russian state TV on 24 February, 2022 (Photo: Russian Pool/Reuters)
One-30 minutes: Information reaches allies
As the attack begins, Moscow might issue a public statement with a political justification for moving on the target territory, such as the oppression of Russians. When Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February, 2022, Putin appeared in a televised broadcast confirming the start of a “special military occupation”.
Otherwise, the first to discover any incursion into Nato would be intelligence analysts, who work 24/7 to monitor threats. In the UK, this is led by a secretive forces spy centre in Cambridgeshire and MI6 in London. Analysts would use information including satellite data, social media posts and human sources to compile urgent, classified reports which would be rushed up the food chain to inform decision-makers.
European leaders, including Andy Burnham, would be rapidly informed and pulled out of other engagements to work on the response.
An attack on any of Nato’s 32 members would be considered a direct hit on the UK, no matter where in the world it happens. This is because under the alliance’s Article 5, an attack on one member is considered an attack on all.
Defence ministers meet at the Nato headquarters in Brussels, Belgium (Photo: Dursun Aydemir/Getty)
30-60 minutes: Emergency meetings
In the UK, an emergency Cobra meeting would be called, attended by the Prime Minister, Defence Secretary Wes Streeting and military chiefs.
Nato would call a joint meeting of all members to discuss a collective response. This would most likely be triggered by whichever country was attacked under the Article 4 provision, which allows for emergency consultation whenever a member’s “territorial integrity, political independence or security” is threatened.
Since the alliance’s formation in 1949, Article 4 has only been invoked nine times, four of these in relation to Russian aggression in Eastern Europe. The UK would most likely be represented by the British ambassador to the alliance, Angus Lapsley.
The allies would then release a joint statement responding to the Russian attack and demanding withdrawal of Russian forces.
The attack could also set off shockwaves in the international economy, spiking oil prices.
60-120 minutes: The counter-response begins
Nato’s military planners, working closely with national armed forces, would begin to devise their response. The scale and style of the Nato counter-operation would depend on the nature and location of the attack, but it has various top-secret battle plans in place.
In 2023, Nato approved defence plans that divide the alliance into three operational areas: the High North and Atlantic, which would be commanded from a base in Virginia; the central region covering the Baltic states, commanded from the Netherlands; and the south-east, covering threats along the Black Sea, commanded from Italy.
The UK would be expected to deploy troops and capabilities according to Nato’s plans. The British contribution would be led by the Chief Joint Operations at the military’s Permanent Joint Headquarters in Northwood, northwest London, who would turn Nato demands into a concrete military plan for all branches of the British forces.
The UK has a permanent presence of around 800 to 900 soldiers in Estonia and a few hundred troops in Poland under Operation Cabrit, set up in 2016 to defend Nato’s eastern flank. In the event of an attack in Eastern Europe, insiders previously told The i Paper that the UK would be expected to reinforce its existing presence in Estonia, rather than immediately deploy troops to the site of the attack. The UK would want to ensure that Estonia was not vulnerable while attention was focused elsewhere as part of a Russian decoy or distraction.
The UK also has a range of elite, high-readiness units like the Special Forces, commandos and paratroopers who could be deployed to support Nato defences against an attack and arrive in theatre within hours.
Soldiers from 16 Air Assault Brigade set up and fly their military drones after jumping from an RAF transport aircraft onto Salisbury Plain at Copehill Down training facility near Warminster (Photo: Finnbarr Webster/Getty)
First 48 hours: Backup arrives
Shortly after the attack, troops from across Europe could be mobilised and begin moving towards the site of the attack.
The British Army’s 4th Light Brigade, known as the Black Rats, is paired with the Estonian teams to provide backup in case of emergency, offering specialist light forces who can fight in complex, varied environments, with one official suggesting this was the most likely unit to deploy in the case of a Russian attack. In May, 3,000 British forces led by the Black Rats deployed on an exercise to Estonia, arriving by road, rail, sea and air in under 48 hours.
The 16 Air Assault Brigade, the British Army’s Global Response Force, could also be deployed and could send an initial advance party into theatre within two days.
The Royal Navy, which leads Nato’s Maritime Allied Reaction Force, might be deployed shortly after an attack. However, concerns have been raised about the Navy’s readiness to respond to threats, with a week-long delay before the warship HMS Dragon could set sail to Cyprus after it was hit by Iranian drones. The UK is also one of only three members to have nuclear weapons, and in the case of a serious attack, may move its nuclear submarines towards Russia.
A soldier from the 2nd Battalion, The Royal Anglian Regiment, engages enemy troops on the Tapa Range in Estonia, where British soldiers were taking part in Exercise Winter Camp (Photo: Ben Birchall/PA)
The RAF, already deployed on air policing missions with Nato, would be expected to help protect against airborne attacks, either with more sorties or sending more jets and equipment. However, the UK would struggle to increase its contribution without cutting back elsewhere; it currently has Typhoon fighter jets deployed to the Middle East and requires jets to protect airspace at home. The RAF could increase its contribution to Nato’s Baltic Sentry mission, which gathers intelligence and carries out surveillance over the eastern flank.
Nato would not be the only side sending reinforcements. In the days after an initial attack, Moscow would send in additional military capabilities or civil infrastructure to support the occupying force and secure the territory.
On the Åland or Svalbard islands, Moscow might try to annex the territory, sending in national guard or border police troops, along with air defence, engineers, artillery, anti-ship missiles and electronic warfare units, Hooker said. In Eastern Europe, Russia would seek to legitimise its occupation with a mock government or sham referendum to prove support for integration into Russia, as has happened in parts of occupied Ukraine.
Nuclear-powered submarine Kazan, part of a Russian naval detachment visiting Cuba, arriving at Havana’s harbour (Photo: Yamil Lage/AFP)
European countries could be hit by cyber attacks and disinformation campaigns in a bid to damage their resolve and ability to respond to the attack. In 2007, Estonia suffered a large-scale cyber attack lasting for weeks, which has been linked to Russia, though this has never been confirmed.
Melanie Garson, a professor of international security at UCL, said that commerce could be a key target. “The attacks on Wildberries and Ozon – Russia’s Amazon equivalent – would also place equivalent distribution warehouses for Amazon and similar throughout Nato countries on the frontline,” she said. “Malicious cyber activity within the supply chain, e.g. delivery partners, could also be an expected course of action.”
First week: Battle lines are drawn
Some of Nato’s military response might only arrive at the scene of the attack weeks after it has occurred.
The UK could deploy the Allied Rapid Reaction Corps, a high-readiness command post for Nato operations. Generally, High Readiness Force Headquarters must be ready to deploy their first elements within 10 days and the entire force within two months.
Hooker warned that Germany, France, Italy and the UK cannot deploy a single division to Lithuania in less than 60–90 days, “far too slow to affect the outcome” of any attempt by Russia to build a land bridge to Kaliningrad, meaning Lithuania would be reliant on its own force to repel a Russian attack.
Soldiers on manoeuvres during Nato-linked military exercises with British, Latvian, Canadian and Italian forces in Latvia (Photo: Damian Lemanski/Getty)
Ruben Stewart, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, has cautioned about the logistical complexities for Nato in navigating multiple fronts and national boundaries for supply lines and troop movements.
These difficulties would be exacerbated by limits on defence spending, with low stockpiles of ammunition and drones, recruitment difficulties and capability gaps across Europe – all without the certainty of a US response, as Donald Trump’s White House turns away from European allies.
“Extensive fronts require commanders to balance forces, particularly shifting scarce assets between fronts,” Stewart said. “Europe faces resource constraints that would only be exacerbated by a major US drawdown.”
Should the attack expand into a full-scale war, the UK and other European countries may choose to call up reserve forces to bolster troop numbers – and prepare for a long fight.