Prime Minister Mark Carney faces an early electoral test Monday as voters head to the polls in three federal by-elections, with a close race in Quebec offering a test of whether his tough approach to U.S. President Donald Trump is translating into support at the ballot box.
The contests in Chicoutimi Le Fjord, North Vancouver Capilano and Beaches East York were called by Carney and are the first federal by-elections since his Liberal government took office.
Newsweek contacted the Liberal Party of Canada via online form Monday for comment.
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Chicoutimi Le Fjord Is The Race To Watch
The biggest uncertainty is in Chicoutimi Le Fjord, where the liberals are trying to take the riding from the Conservatives while also facing a strong challenge from the Bloc Québécois.
A Poliwave riding poll conducted by Liaison Strategies between August 16 and 19 put Liberal candidate Daniel Gobeil at 39.9%, ahead of Bloc candidate Caroline Dubé at 35.1%. Conservative candidate Régis Gaudreault was at 15.4%.
The five-point Liberal lead makes Chicoutimi Le Fjord by far the closest of the three races surveyed.
A second, more recent survey also showed a tight Liberal Bloc contest.
A Segma Recherche poll of 448 voters, commissioned by CKAJ 92.5 and published on August 25, found Liberal candidate Daniel Gobeil at 40.3%, just ahead of Dubé at 37.8%. Conservative candidate Régis Gaudreault was at 16.8%. The poll had a margin of error of 4.6 percentage points, meaning the Liberal and Bloc candidates were effectively in a statistical tie. Thirteen percent of respondents were undecided, while another 3% declined to say how they would vote
The two polls show a consistent picture: the liberals hold a narrow advantage, but the Bloc remains within striking distance.
Carney’s Approval Remains High
That is particularly significant for Carney because the Liberal leader has enjoyed strong personal approval ratings as he has taken a harder line against Trump over tariffs and trade.
Carney was already popular before his latest clash with Trump. His approval rating rose 3 points to 60% last week, while a poll conducted during the same period showed most Canadians wanted a tougher approach to U.S. trade talks, days before the negotiations collapsed.
He has also won broad support from provincial premiers across party lines, including Ontario conservative Doug Ford, who has aggressively pushed back against Trump’s tariff threats, and Manitoba social democrat Wab Kinew, who said he’s “100%” behind Carney.
A Liaison Strategies federal tracker released last week found Carney’s approval rating had risen three points to 60%. His approval in Quebec was even higher, at 76%, according to the survey.
The numbers came as Carney was increasingly defining himself around his government’s response to Trump’s trade pressure.
Carney’s latest clash with Trump came after Canada walked away from trade talks with the United States following a dispute over tariffs. Carney has defended a tougher negotiating stance and pledged to respond to new U.S. tariffs.
Canadians Back A Tougher Approach
Polling suggests that position has wide public support.
A Léger survey conducted during the same period found 56% of Canadians wanted Ottawa to take a hard line in negotiations with the U.S. and make no further concessions, while 31% preferred a more flexible approach.
The timing of the byelection polling, however, makes it difficult to say whether the latest confrontation with Trump has directly changed voter behaviour.
The Poliwave survey in Chicoutimi Le Fjord was conducted before the latest breakdown in the Canada-U.S. trade talks. The Segma poll, reported after the breakdown, also showed a tight race between the liberals and Bloc Québécois.
That means Monday’s result could offer a useful political snapshot, but it will not by itself prove that Carney’s tariff strategy has boosted or damaged his popularity.
Liberals Lead In Other Byelections
The other two byelections look considerably less competitive based on the Poliwave numbers.
In North Vancouver Capilano, the Liberals were at 46.8%, compared with 30.3% for the Conservatives, 11.9% for the NDP and 10.8% for the Greens.
In Beaches East York, the Liberals had a much larger lead, at 55%, with the NDP at 20.7% and Conservatives at 20.6%.
That leaves Chicoutimi Le Fjord as the race to watch.
A Potential Test For Carney
For Carney, a Liberal win across all three ridings would provide an early political boost and allow the prime minister to point to a clean sweep following his confrontation with Trump.
But a loss in Chicoutimi Le Fjord would complicate that picture, particularly because the Conservatives have held the riding since 2018, although their margin narrowed considerably in the 2025 federal election, while the liberals are seeking to strengthen their position in Quebec. Carney is hoping to end Conservatives’ reign there.
With two recent polls showing the Liberals and Bloc separated by just a few percentage points, the result could ultimately come down to turnout and undecided voters.
Either way, the Chicoutimi Le Fjord result is likely to attract the most attention as Canadians offer Carney his first significant electoral verdict since his latest battle with Trump over tariffs.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Matthew Cannon and Cristina Diciu.