Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected claims he ignored warnings that could have prevented the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, as polls and prediction markets forecast he faces a bruising election next month.
Excerpts from a book, which were published by the newspaper Haaretz, described how Netanyahu had been told by Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the president of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), that Palestinian militants were planning a major operation.
Newsweek has contacted Netanyahu’s office and the UAE government for comment.
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After the release of the book’s revelations on Tuesday, Netanyahu’s chances of remaining prime minister after the election on October 27 slipped from 30 percent to 28 percent, according to the platform Polymarket.
They had dipped to as low as 25 percent on August 28, while rival Gadi Eisenkot, who quit Netanyahu’s war Cabinet after accusing him of lacking a strategy in Gaza, is at 57 percent.
Eisenkot’s Yashar is favorite to become Israel’s largest party, according to recent polling. Netanyahu’s Likud has been forecast to lose up to a third of its seats in some polls, yet he could remain prime minister if he is able to form a coalition that gives him the support of 61 lawmakers.
Emir warned of ‘Major Operation against Israel’
A warning came days before the 2023 attacks on Israel which killed about 1,200 people, while a further 251 were taken hostage. Israel responded with a military operation in Gaza, which is believed to have killed more than 80,000 people in the territory.
In an excerpt from the book Kidnapped: 843 Days of Abandonment published by Haaretz, journalists Shlomi Eldar and Ruth Yuval write that during a 45-minute conversation a week and a half before October 7, 2023, “bin Zayed told Netanyahu that Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’ leader in Gaza, was planning a major operation against Israel.”
“The Emir expressed concern that such an event would not only result in bloodshed but would also shake the entire region,” the excerpt added. Netanyahu is said to have told the emir that he believed Hamas intended to operate in the West Bank and that Israel was prepared for any scenario.
Netanyahu has rejected the claims, posting on X that his office, the national security council and his military secretary had reviewed his call logs and found no evidence the conversation took place.
Netanyahu has sent a warning letter ahead of a libel suit against Haaretz, Eldar and Yuval over the claims, the newspaper reported. The Emirati government said in a statement that it did not comment on reports regarding conversations between leaders.
Netanyahu Under Pressure
The allegations add to pressure on Netanyahu ahead of elections on October 27 as he faces criticism for his handling of the events before the October 7 attacks, which will be a campaign issue for Israelis.
Netanyahu, who leads Israel’s right-wing Likud Party, has rejected demands in Israel for an independent state commission of inquiry into the security lapses that opposition parties said would be a priority if they took power.
In a joint statement, several Israeli opposition party leaders said: “Why did he not inform the security establishment, and why did he not act to protect Israeli citizens?”
The leader of the center-left Democrats party, Yair Golan, accused Netanyahu of “endangering Israel.” Eisenkot posted on X that Netanyahu had “ignored” all the warnings of a potential attack, adding, he was “unfit” for office.
Fomer Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said Netanyahu had “personal and direct responsibility” for the deaths on October 7 and as such, “cannot continue to serve in his position for even one more minute.”
Israel’s Fractured Parliament
The multi-party system means premiers often do not finish their four-year terms as coalitions collapse and new alliance’s form but opposition figures will still face a challenge to unseat Netanyahu, who is Israel’s longest-serving prime minister.
Even if Eisenkot’s party wins more seats than Netanyahu’s, it will need to form alliances with other parties to get a majority and he has already said he would not compromise on legislation mandating military service for ultra-Orthodox Jews, who wield considerable political power.
Polling shows Eisenkot’s Yashar party as getting 22-25 seats compared with 20-21 for Likud in surveys published between September 3 and September 8.
Eisenkot will also have to decide whether to include Arab-led parties to get over the threshold for a majority, which Netanyahu and his far-right allies have used to attack him.
A Maariv poll released Tuesday projects 57 seats for opposition parties and four for a new party led by Yoaz Hendel and economist Yaron Zelekha, which if they join the opposition, would reach 61 seats, although neither leader has indicated which bloc they would support.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu would likely need coalition allies to stay in power, including the far-right Jewish Power, headed by former National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, and Religious Zionism, headed by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Tobias Meyjes and Tony Phillips.