The Tasmanian state election may deliver a status quo number of seats for the Liberals and Labor, a record-low primary vote for Labor, and another progressive crossbench.
With more pre-polls and postal votes to come, the Liberals are on track for 14 seats, Labor with 10 and the Greens with five — the same result as last year’s election.
The seventh seat in Bass remains up for grabs, and could provide the Liberals with a 15th seat, or Labor with an 11th.
Premier Jeremy Rockliff said he intended to ask the governor to recommission his government, but Labor leader Dean Winter said it was unclear how the Liberals could reach a majority of seats.
Their election night speeches pointed to putting the onus on Mr Rockliff to have the first shot at forming government by getting the backing of three or four independents.
If he can’t achieve that, Mr Winter has promised to attempt it.
They will need to negotiate with a progressive crossbench.
Nine out of 10 could come from the progressive side of politics — incumbents Kristie Johnston, Craig Garland, David O’Byrne, along with new MP Peter George, and the five Greens.
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers (SFF) Party candidate Carlo di Falco is on track to win a seat in Lyons.
Another bizarre election night result in Tasmania
Mr Rockliff took to the stage first, and attempted to pour cold water on a possible minority Labor government.
“The people of Tasmania … have said they have no confidence in the Labor Party to form government,” he said.
“And they have voted to re-endorse our Liberal government.
“I intend to visit the governor and ask her to recommission my government, so we can get on with the job for Tasmania.”
Liberal supporters greeted Jeremy Rockliff on the tally room floor on election night. (ABC News: Luke Bowden)
The Liberals had a 3.3 per cent positive swing to reach 40 per cent of the primary vote, while Mr Rockliff’s popularity in Braddon soared.
Labor suffered a 2.9 per cent swing against it, with a primary vote of 26.1 per cent, its lowest in more than a century.
Tasmanian election coverage
But the parliament will have a progressive majority, and Mr Winter left the door open to negotiating with the crossbench to form government.
“I’ve listened to Tasmanians’ verdict tonight and I understand that they are deeply dissatisfied with the way our parliament has worked, and they want a change of approach,” he said.
“It is uncertain as to how [the Liberals] will achieve a majority.
“I’m not going to be trading away any of Labor’s policies or any of our values.
“If the Liberals are unable to form a government, another election is not an option.”
Dean Winter has left the door open to negotiating with the crossbench to form government. (ABC News: Luke Bowden)
Labor’s change of approach
It was a change of approach for Mr Winter and Labor.
After the last state election, then-Labor leader Rebecca White left the door open to negotiating with the crossbench for government, before that was quashed the next day.
After the no-confidence motion in Mr Rockliff last month, Mr Winter repeatedly ruled out forming government with the Greens due to what he described as irreconcilable differences.
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In her speech, Tasmanian Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff said she was open to discussions.
“Tasmanians have chosen the next parliament, this conversation needs to be had,” she said.
“Representing our communities is not a game. It’s about working together to make positive change.
“Yes, there are differences, but the Greens and Labor have a lot in common too.”
Rosalie Woodruff says the Greens are open to having discussions with Labor. (ABC News: Luke Bowden)
There was a similar message from other crossbenchers.
Mr Garland, who supported the no-confidence motion in Mr Rockliff, said he wanted to make things work in the next parliament.
“The discussions I’ve had with the Labor Party, they are more than willing to work with me,” he said.
“The discussions I’ve had with the Liberal Party, there are no grey areas, they know the areas that I feel strongly about.
“If Jeremy is the premier, we’ve already had discussions, we’ve tried to push things along, it didn’t work, but now we have to make it work.”
Craig Garland says Labor is “more than willing” to work with him. (ABC News: Sandy Powell)
Progressive crossbench could force changes
The crossbench presents a number of challenges for the Liberals and Labor.
Eight out of 10 are strongly opposed to the proposed Macquarie Point stadium, and the SFF has previously stated its opposition.
Peter George joins Tasmania’s progressive crossbench
Eight have also voiced significant concerns about native forest logging and salmon farming.
Mr O’Byrne aligns with the major parties on these issues, and said independents should not come with a list of demands.
“I think that becomes transactional,” he said.
“If you have a list of 10 issues that you want to prosecute, what happens if those 10 issues are resolved? There will be issues in months or years to come.”
Mr O’Byrne said the party with more seats was in the “box seat” to form government.
New independent Mr George said there needed to be a “mature” conversation with the crossbench.
Peter George says there needs to be “some maturity from those two old parties”. (ABC News: Maren Preuss)
“If neither of the parties can speak to the crossbench, that is their problem, it is not the problem of the crossbench, nor will it be the problem of the Greens,” he said.
“We need some maturity from those two old parties to negotiate a way through that gives us four years of stable government for the benefit of all Tasmanians, not for party political interests.
“This election has shown, like the last election, and they should get used to it, never again in Tasmania will there be a majority government.”Federal MPs make state switch
There will be a significant federal tinge to the new parliament.
Bridget Archer won a seat for the Liberals in Bass, having lost her federal seat at the May federal election.
Bridget Archer has been elected for the Liberals in Bass. (ABC News: Bec Pridham)
Gavin Pearce also won a Liberal seat in Braddon, having not recontested his federal seat.
Brian Mitchell looks likely to win a seat for Labor in Lyons, after stepping aside in the federal seat to allow former state Labor leader Rebecca White to run.
Vote counting started as soon as polls closed on Saturday. (ABC News: Alexandra Alvaro)
The count will continue on Sunday.
Nine out of 15 pre-poll sites were counted on Saturday, and there could still be some movement in the seventh seats, although the seventh Bass seat appears the only one still up for grabs.
At the last election, Mr Garland rapidly came into contention two weeks after the count started to win the seventh seat in Braddon from the Liberals.