With the likes of West Ham, Brentford and Wolves failing to impress in their first games, the relegation market has already been shaken up.

Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Premier League relegation odds: London duo firmly in the mix

When Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United were relegated in the 2023/24 season, their combined points tally of 66 set a new Premier League record for the lowest total. 

That record lasted just one year until Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton were condemned to the drop last term. Together, they managed a mere 59 points. 

All six clubs had just been promoted from the Championship. The recent evidence clearly suggests the gap between England’s top two tiers has never been wider, yet something already feels different this term.

Sunderland’s bold transfer window, with more than £140m spent on fresh talent, suggests they are determined to do more than merely make up the numbers. A thumping 3-0 win over West Ham in their first Premier League game in eight years suggests they have a real chance to compete. 

Elland Road was buzzing as fellow new boys Leeds saw off Everton on Monday night. As one of the most impressive Championship winners in recent seasons, bookmakers give Daniel Farke’s side a 58.3% chance of beating the drop.

Brentford

For one or more of the newly promoted teams to survive, a more established member of the top flight would need to perish.

Brentford’s consistent success in recent years has made them an established force in the Premier League. This is the West London club’s fifth straight season at this level, but perhaps more significantly, it’s their first without Thomas Frank.

Concerns have already emerged after a difficult summer. Frank’s exit, after nearly seven years and more than 300 games as Bees boss, has no doubt contributed to several star players seeking moves elsewhere. 

Christian Norgaard joined Arsenal and Bryan Mbeumo moved to Manchester United. Meanwhile, Yoane Wissa is still pushing hard for a switch to Newcastle, and he will eventually get his way.

Between them, Mbeumo and Wissa were responsible for just over 59% of Brentford’s Premier League goals last term. While money has been spent on new signings such as Dango Ouattara and Antoni Milambo, replacing that level of firepower is no easy task. 

Of the four Bees players who scored more than twice in the league last term, only Kevin Schade remains. 

A 3-1 defeat at the City Ground on the opening day only added to the problems for their inexperienced new boss Keith Andrews. Right now, there seems to be great value in backing Brentford to be relegated at odds of 3.25, with an implied probability of 30.8%.

West Ham

On the surface, West Ham might not appear to be typical relegation candidates. Aside from the so-called ‘big six’, only Everton have enjoyed a longer run in the Premier League. Yet, scratch beneath the surface, and there are reasons for concern among Hammers fans that have been brewing for some time.

Despite their memorable 2022/23 UEFA Conference League triumph, a 40-point Premier League return that season marked the start of a notable decline.

They recovered to some extent the following year, but the David Moyes era came to a disappointing close. Julen Lopetegui’s stay was brief and largely forgettable, and so far, things have not improved under Graham Potter.

The ex-Chelsea boss has been at the helm since January, but his Premier League fixtures have only yielded 20 points from 19 games so far. It’s also worth noting that two of Potter’s five wins came against Ipswich and Leicester, both now Championship clubs.

After a miserable 3-0 defeat on Wearside, concerns are growing over whether the £55m received for Mohammed Kudus was invested wisely. 

The Irons are currently priced at 4.00 to be relegated, with an implied probability of 25%. They could certainly be in the mix this term, especially if Sunderland and Leeds continue to build on their opening weekend wins.

However, West Ham’s saving grace may once again be captain Jarrod Bowen. The England international has registered over 20 goal contributions in each of the last two Premier League seasons – a remarkable tally for a struggling side. 

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