Kansas Republican governor hopeful Ty Masterson spoke before Vice President JD Vance’s appearance Monday, Sept. 14, 2026, at Webco Manufacturing Inc., a metal fabrication company in Olathe.
Robert A. Cronkleton
bcronkleton@kcstar.com
A new survey of 750 likely Kansas voters suggests Republican Ty Masterson has opened up a lead over Democrat Cindy Holscher in the race to replace two-term Gov. Laura Kelly.
An independent poll from Emerson College and Nexstar Media released on Friday shows that 50.8% of respondents on Sept. 15 and 16 supported Masterson and 43.5% favored Holscher. Undecided voters made up 5.7% of the sample.
The poll’s margin of error is listed as 3.6 percentage points.
It’s a good sign for Masterson, the Kansas Senate president from Andover, who has made the case to voters that recapturing the executive branch will allow Republicans to deliver on priorities that have evaded GOP supermajorities over Kelly’s eight years in office.
Kansas has a long tradition of trading off the governorship between parties without electing consecutive Democrats or Republicans.
National Republicans widely see Kansas as one of their best opportunities to flip a governorship from blue to red in a tough cycle, and the Republican Governors Association has spent heavily on television ads attacking Holscher, a state senator from Overland Park.
“Polls will move between now and Election Day,” Holscher campaign spokesperson Riley Osen said in a statement. “Cindy is going to keep showing up, listening to voters’ concerns, and talking about ways to lower the cost of living.”
Garrett Henson, a spokesperson for Masterson’s campaign, said Kansans “want lower property taxes and a governor who says what he thinks and does what he says.”
“Ty takes nothing for granted,” Henson said in a statement. “Forty-six days, and he’ll earn every vote.”
In August, Holscher’s campaign released an internal poll of 600 likely voters that showed her leading Masterson, 47% to 46%.
Both nominees have attempted to portray themselves as the commonsense alternative to an extremist opponent whose agenda could set the state back decades.
What else does the poll show?
The survey showed a dead heat in Kansas’ U.S. Senate contest between Republican incumbent Roger Marshall and his Democratic challenger, the Rev. Adam Hamilton, who held a slim advantage in the new poll.
Hamilton garnered 44.8% support to Marshall’s 43.3%, while 3.7% of respondents indicated they favored Libertarian David C. Graham.
The poll also asked likely Kansas voters about their perceptions of different candidates and current state and federal officials.
In the governor race, 37.6% of respondents reported having a favorable view of Holscher, while 34.7% viewed her unfavorably. Masterson received similarly mixed reviews, with 40.4% of respondents viewing him favorably and 43.7% viewing him unfavorably.
Other respondents reported having neutral feelings about the candidates or not knowing who they are.
Only 40.3% of respondents said they approved of President Donald Trump’s job performance compared to 52.9% who disapproved of his performance.
Kelly, the two-term Democratic governor, got favorable reviews from 45.7% of respondents compared to 38.9% who disapproved of her performance.
Respondents were also asked to identify the most important issue facing Kansas from a list of 10 options. An overwhelming 48.2% picked the economy, followed by 14% for healthcare, 9.2% for threats to democracy and 8.9% for housing affordability.
This story was originally published September 18, 2026 at 12:21 PM.
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Matthew Kelly is The Kansas City Star’s Kansas State Government reporter. He previously covered local government for The Wichita Eagle. Kelly holds a political science degree from Wichita State University.