Robert Pape (Jacquelyn Martin/AP)
Iran could be preparing a dramatic “October surprise” involving its nuclear program just weeks before the U.S. midterm elections, according to University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape.
An expert on military escalation, Pape warned Sunday that Tehran could carry out a nuclear weapons test as part of an effort to confront President Donald Trump with a major military and political crisis just before November’s elections.
“I want to be very clear what I think Iran’s goal is, and the October surprise that I’ve now been warning about is Iran may move ever closer and may actually test nuclear weapons in October,” Pape said during an interview on Newsmax’s “Sunday Agenda.”
Pape, who directs the Chicago Project on Security and Threats, has argued that the timing could be tied directly to the November midterm elections.
In his “Escalation Trap” newsletter, Pape has described a scenario in which Tehran deliberately increases military, economic, and nuclear pressure at a time when the Trump administration would have little time to contain the consequences before voters cast their ballots.
The warning does not mean Iran is known to possess a nuclear weapon.
Publicly available evidence has not established that Tehran currently has one or that it has decided to build or test one. Iran maintains that its nuclear program is peaceful.
But Pape said the possibility of a test — or moves that convince Washington one could be imminent — could create a dangerous dilemma.
Pape has pointed in particular to Pickaxe Mountain, a deeply buried complex near Iran’s damaged Natanz nuclear facility.
Satellite imagery shows increased construction activity at the site, although analysts have not established that uranium enrichment is taking place there.
Pape argues that uncertainty itself could give Tehran leverage: Iran might not need to detonate a weapon if indications that it was approaching that threshold were sufficient to force Trump to decide whether to launch another strike.
Walid Phares, a Newsmax foreign policy analyst and former foreign policy adviser to Trump’s 2016 campaign, said during Sunday’s interview that the danger should be taken seriously.
Phares previously has suggested that Iran either developed tactical nuclear weapons or purchased them from another country, such as North Korea.
Phares said he and others had warned months ago that Tehran’s strategy was to delay military pressure and survive through the U.S. elections.
“We projected at the time that the strategic goal of the Islamic regime in Iran … was to delay and delay and delay as long as possible,” Phares told Newsmax.
Phares argued that Iran has sought both to avoid devastating military strikes and to prevent internal upheaval that could threaten the government.
The nuclear issue has increasingly become intertwined with Trump’s own warnings to Tehran.
Trump has repeatedly declared that Iran will not be permitted to obtain a nuclear weapon.
On Sept. 4, he raised the possibility of another U.S. attack on Pickaxe Mountain.
“Iran will not have a nuclear weapon,” Trump said. “We may hit Pickaxe very soon” if nuclear activity is detected there.
Days later, Trump said the United States had detected “a little activity” at Pickaxe and warned Iran that Washington could respond with force, according to published reports.
Trump has also publicly connected Tehran’s actions to the U.S. political calendar.
Earlier this month, he alleged that Iran was attempting to influence the midterm elections, saying Tehran wanted a politically weaker Washington that would ease pressure over its nuclear program.
He predicted the conflict could change sharply after Election Day.
Pape’s analysis similarly puts the election at the center of Tehran’s possible calculations, though his forecast remains an assessment rather than a confirmed Iranian plan.
In his newsletter, he wrote that a sudden escalation in October could occur only “weeks or days” before Americans vote, leaving the administration little time to manage its military, economic, and political fallout.
Beyond the immediate confrontation, Pape warned Sunday that an Iranian nuclear weapon could transform the Middle East by encouraging other regional powers to seek nuclear capabilities.
“Once you have Iran move to an actual nuclear weapon, there are going to be a whole series of dominoes, including Turkey,” he told Newsmax.
Pape urged Trump to use his upcoming address to the United Nations to rally allies around nuclear nonproliferation rather than let the crisis to become a bilateral U.S.-Iran confrontation.
The stakes, he argued, extend beyond the November elections.
An Iranian nuclear breakthrough could alter the region’s strategic balance, while another U.S. attack could intensify an already volatile confrontation.
For Pape, however, the political timing is central to the warning: Tehran may calculate that October offers its strongest opportunity to force Trump into a consequential decision just before Americans go to the polls.
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