Hurricane season is busy in the Pacific, with three active systems including Hurricanes Polo and Odalys, as well as Tropical Storm Nolo. There is also another two blobs in the Pacific that we are monitoring.
Two areas are being watched in the Atlantic, a high chance of development near the east coast of Africa and the other is Tropical Storm Fay. Fay dissipated a few days ago but has since come back to life. Both of these systems are far from most land areas.
We have the maps you need to track all these systems below, starting with the most active basin, the Central and Eastern Pacific.
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Nolo
Nolo will strengthen to a major hurricane as it approaches Hawaii by early Saturday. It could bring life-threatening flooding and high winds to parts of the island chain.
(MORE: Latest Hawaii hurricane forecast)
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Hawaii rainfall forecast
Here is our latest rainfall forecast for the next five days. The Big Island has the biggest threat of more locally flooding rain. We also have a forecast in more detail here.
Odalys and Polo forecasts
Polo became a major concern after it rapidly intensified Tuesday.
Fortunately, its core of highest winds is expected to remain off southwest Mexico’s Pacific coast the next few days. But flooding rainfall, high surf, rip currents, and tropical storm force winds are possible.
Polo will likely turn toward the Baja Peninsula and southwestern Mexico next week.
All interests along the southwestern Mexico coast, including the southern Baja Peninsula, should monitor the forecast for Polo closely.
The forecast track and latest information on Odalys is also shown in the map below. Odalys is not expected to threaten land.
Rainfall forecast
The map below shows where the heaviest rain from Polo may fall over the next five days in Mexico, along with the latest National Hurricane Center forecast cone in black.
This forecast is subject to change with any subtle forecast shifts of the track of Polo.
Sea surface temperatures
Along with ocean temperatures, this map also shows another area the National Hurricane Center is monitoring for possible tropical development as soon as this weekend.
The next Eastern Pacific tropical storm will be named “Rachel.”
Pacific tracks so far this season
Tracking the Atlantic
Sea surface temperatures
Tropical Storm Fay is once again strengthening, but the storm will not last long as the environment turns hostile for it by this weekend. It will remain far from land over the central Atlantic Ocean.
There is another tropical wave just off the coast of western Africa that has a chance of development later this week, shown by the circle at the far eastern edge of the map below.
It could bring some soaking rain to the Cabo Verde Islands, but otherwise is no threat to any other land areas of the Atlantic Basin.
Wind shear
These are areas of strong wind shear, the difference in wind speed and direction with height, which are shown in purple. High wind shear is hostile to mature tropical cyclones and those trying to develop.
(MORE: What is wind shear)
Dry, dusty air
Another nemesis of tropical systems is dry air.
In hurricane season, plumes of dust-laden air stream across the basin from Africa’s Sahara Desert, as you can see in the map below. This sinking, dry air squelches thunderstorm development, the building blocks of tropical storms and hurricanes.
So areas in the brown shading below are generally unfavorable for development.
Atlantic tracks so far this season
These are the tracks of systems that were at least tropical or subtropical storms, so far in the Atlantic Basin.
Season activity compared to average
Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE, is a metric that measures the total energy produced by tropical storms and hurricanes over a given period, accounting for both how strong they were and how long they lasted.
It’s another measure meteorologists use to gauge how active a hurricane season has been.
As you can see below, it has been a historically quiet Atlantic season while the Pacific, especially the Eastern Pacific, has been much more active than usual.
(MORE: Complete El Niño coverage)
Accumulated cyclone energy, or ACE, is a metric that measures total energy produced by tropical storms and hurricanes over a given period, accounting for both how strong they were and how long they lasted.
(Data: Phil Klotzbach/CSU)