Arab News | Israel received repeated warnings before October 7 attack, says The Atlantic

A report published by The Atlantic says that Israel received repeated warnings about escalating activity by Hamas in the weeks before the October 7, 2023 attack, including a highly unusual visit to Israel by Egypt’s intelligence chief Abbas Kamel.

According to the report, Kamel arrived at Ben Gurion Airport on September 26, 2023, aboard a Cessna chartered by Egypt’s intelligence service. He travelled to Israel as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was preparing to mark the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, which Netanyahu had described that day as a lesson in the dangers of missed intelligence warnings and self-delusion.

The Atlantic reports that Kamel warned Israeli officials that Hamas appeared to be preparing for a major attack and urged Israel to make economic concessions to Gaza to prevent the situation from escalating. One former Israeli official who was later briefed on the visit told the magazine that Kamel’s message was essentially that Gaza would “blow up” if Israel did not change course.

The report says Kamel did not provide a specific date or details about the attack that Hamas ultimately carried out on October 7. It also remains unclear exactly which Israeli officials met with him. His aircraft stayed at the airport for 67 minutes before returning to Cairo. However, officials from seven countries who spoke to The Atlantic said the presence of Egypt’s intelligence chief in Israel should itself have signalled the seriousness of the warning.

One former Israeli official told The Atlantic that the significance lay in the messenger himself, arguing that senior Israeli officials meeting Kamel should have indicated that the issue had reached the highest levels of government.

Netanyahu’s office denied in the aftermath of October 7 that the prime minister had received warnings from Egypt, either directly or indirectly. Tzachi Hanegbi, who was then head of Netanyahu’s national-security council, also denied that Kamel had visited Israel or that Egypt had issued any warning.

The report says Kamel’s visit forms part of a broader pattern described by dozens of sources who said that Israel had repeatedly been warned about threatening activity by Hamas before the attack.

Among those warnings, according to the report, was a call from UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed to Netanyahu. After receiving intelligence from Egyptian and Palestinian sources, bin Zayed reportedly warned Netanyahu about the possibility of an imminent attack and, like Kamel, urged economic concessions to Gaza. Multiple officials confirmed in the report that the call took place, although Netanyahu denied an earlier report about it and threatened to sue Haaretz, which had reported on the call.

Current and former Israeli, Arab and US officials told The Atlantic that they saw a common problem in Israel’s approach at the time: confidence that Hamas was under control. One former senior US official involved in talks with Israel said Israeli officials appeared to be concentrating on the West Bank and were confident they had the Gaza situation under control.

The October 7 attack, 11 days after Kamel’s visit, killed about 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and saw 251 hostages taken to Gaza during coordinated attacks on communities, military positions and an outdoor music festival. Israel subsequently launched its military campaign in Gaza, which killed more than 73,000 Palestinians, most of them civilians, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry. Hamas leaders and thousands of fighters have also been killed.

The failure to prepare for the October 7 attack has become a major issue in Israeli politics. Netanyahu has faced demands, including from former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, for an independent state investigation into the military and intelligence failures.

Netanyahu has opposed establishing the type of independent inquiry used after previous security failures, including the Yom Kippur War, and instead sought to create a politically appointed commission that would include opposition representatives. Opposition leaders have resisted the proposal, arguing that such an investigation could favor Netanyahu’s government.

The situation in Gaza had already become increasingly tense by the summer of 2023. Qatar had frozen fuel deliveries to Gaza, which Hamas resold to help finance salaries for public-sector workers. Hamas subsequently called for demonstrations at the Erez crossing over the delayed aid and other disputes, including the treatment of Palestinian prisoners. Israel closed the crossing in September after protests there prevented Gazan workers from entering Israel.