The perception is that Iran may be slowly losing the attrition blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran gambled on the theory that it could cut off shipping, and it hoped this would roil global markets.
It hoped that it had leverage to pressure the US to end the war and end the blockade of Iran. The US has largely called Iran’s bluff.
The question now is why Iran began to talk up a seven-day relaxation of the blockade of the Strait. The seven-day ceasefire plan has been floated for more than a week.
Iran likely believed it could make this happen at the United Nations General Assembly. However, the US did not show much interest. At least, most reports describe this as a cold shoulder from the US, rejecting Iran’s push for a seven-day interim agreement.
According to local reports, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Saturday that Tehran had not yet received a formal response from Washington.
Iran’s foreign minister Araghchi addresses a special session of the Conference on Disarmament at the UN, in Geneva Tuesday, 17th February 2026 (credit: REUTERS/PIERRE ALBOUY)
Rudaw Media Network in Iraq noted that while Iran had proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the US has rejected it.
“We saw the first reaction from the US president, but nothing has yet been conveyed to us by the mediators,” Araghchi told journalists in New York, Iran’s state-run IRIB reported late Saturday. Rudaw noted that “his remarks came hours after Trump told Rudaw at the White House that he had ‘rejected’ Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days.”
An Iranian diplomat said that “Reopening the Strait of Hormuz depends on these conditions being met; and we will make decisions based on a definitive response from the mediators.”
Iran’s conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz
“Iran’s conditions for reopening the strategic waterway include the release of its frozen assets, an end to the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and the lifting of the US naval blockade of Iran,” Rudaw noted.
As such, it’s unclear whether the US would be willing to be seen as conceding to Iran. The US has invested a lot in this war since February. It will want something to show for it. One of the main goals is preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
However, the focus of the war has not actually been on the nuclear program. This leaves a perplexing question. Iran has shifted most of the talks to the Straits. Iran has thus leveraged its proximity to the strategic waterway to make it the main issue of discussion.
“The Iranian initiative comes after Washington and Tehran resumed diplomatic contacts in New York this week on the sidelines of the 81st United Nations General Assembly. Araghchi and US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff held talks on Tuesday through Qatari mediators,” Rudaw noted.
The US is now waiting out Iran. The Trump administration appears to think time is on its side and that it can wait until the midterms. Even if it does go back into some kind of MOU with Iran or a deal, it will want something to show for six months of conflict. This is the key.
Iran thinks it is winning
So far, Iran hasn’t handed the US a “win.” Iran is talking about kicking the can down the road and doing more interim deals. It tried this back in the summer as well.
Iran also appears to the tying its negotiators’ hands, so it can’t get a deal anyway. The US no longer trusts this kind of Persian bazaar of negotiations. “I believe we’ll make a deal, right after the election; will a deal be made with Iran that lets them rebuild and create a far greater country than it ever was before… or do I annihilate the Islamic Republic and do it quickly… with no chance of survival and no hope,” Trump said.
As long as the US believes the attrition is slowly going in America’s direction, there is no incentive to engage in another short-term deal where Iran benefits. Iran will need to come up with something more than its “seven days” concept, and it may have to adjust its demands for US concessions. Iran thinks it is winning.
The US also thinks it is winning. When both sides think they are winning, it is harder to get to an agreement. Where Trump has excelled in the past is giving both sides the appearance of a win. The challenge today is that both sides believe time is on their side.