Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens head to Rio de Janeiro for a Week 3 showdown with the Dallas Cowboys. Michael Owens / Getty Images
Sept. 27, 2026 Updated 9:02 am EDT
The Athletic has live coverage of Sunday’s Week 3 NFL action.
NFL scoring crashed down to Earth last week after a historic opening slate. What will Week 3 have in store?
Sports betting analyst Nick Kostos has straight-up picks for every game to go with nine against-the-spread bets. The Athletic’s Austin Mock has also identified five totals he likes on the board. Let’s run through the 15 games to round out the week, with some help from researcher David Bearman who has key stats and trends for every game.
Chargers at Bills
Kostos’ picks
Straight-up: Bills
Bet: None
Bearman’s stats and trends
Los Angeles’ 0-2 start: The Chargers became the second team in NFL history to lose back-to-back games by double digits at home against teams that had a sub-.200 win percentage the season before, joining the 1926 Racine Tornadoes.
Chargers’ offensive woes: They are 28th in success rate, 30th in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play and 32nd in rush EPA per play. Justin Herbert ranks 31st in Total QBR, ahead of only Cooper Rush.
Unreal Bills stat: Per Ryan Paganetti, they had 34 first downs on just 66 offensive plays (excluding kneeldowns) against the Lions in Week 2, a 51.5 percent first-down-to-play ratio. Only one other team has reached that mark in 3,424 regular-season games since the start of 2013.
Panthers at Browns
Kostos’ picks
Straight-up: Panthers
Bet: Panthers -2.5 (no bet at -3)
Bearman’s stats and trends
Browns spread trend: Cleveland is 6-17-2 against the spread (ATS) after an outright win since 2022.
Panthers spread trend: Carolina had not won or covered a game as a favorite since 2021 until last week in Atlanta. The last time the Panthers covered as a favorite in back-to-back games? October 2020.
Bryce Young’s solid start: The Panthers quarterback is tied for the league lead in passing touchdowns (six), is second in passing yards (648) and is fifth in rating (117.1). He has at least 250 passing yards in both games so far.
Jets at Lions
Kostos’ picks
Straight-up: Lions
Bet: Jets +6.5 (value up to +6)
Bearman’s stats and trends
Lions spread trends:
Teams with extra rest (eight or more days) went 4-0 ATS last week with the Seahawks, Patriots, Rams and 49ers all winning by double-digits. The Lions, who played last Thursday night, are 13-2 ATS in this spot since 2021.
The Lions entered 2026 an NFL-best 57-32 (63.3%) ATS since Campbell took over in 2021. They are currently one of eight 0-2 ATS teams this season.
Opposite offenses: The Jets have cleared 23 points in just four of the past 17 games while the Lions have done it in 28 of 36 regular-season contests since the beginning of 2024.
Texans at Colts
Kostos’ picks
Straight-up: Texans
Bet: No
Bearman’s stats and trends
What history says about teams that start slow: Since 2000, 25 of 219 (11.4%) teams that have opened a season 0-2 have rebounded to make the postseason. The Texans account for four of those: in 2015, 2018, 2023 and 2025.
Colts’ losing streak: After starting an NFL-best 8-2 last season, the Colts lost their final seven games of the season and the first two of 2026. The nine-game losing streak is the franchise’s longest since 2011, when Peyton Manning missed the entire season.
Colts’ defensive struggles: They are last in scoring defense (37.0 PPG), last in total defense (514.5 YPG), 31st in rush defense (177.0) and last in pass defense (337.5)
Patriots at Jaguars
Picks
Kostos’ straight-up pick: Jaguars
Kostos’ bet: Jaguars -2.5 (no bet at -3)
Mock’s bet: Under 46 (value up to 45.5)
Bearman’s stats and trends
Spread trend: Nearly 25 percent of Trevor Lawrence’s career wins have come by three or fewer points.
Patriots’ QB play: In his past six games dating back to last postseason, Drake Maye has completed 61.1 percent of his passes and averaged 202.3 yards per game with a 7-to-8 TD-INT ratio.
Jaguars’ stout run defense: Dating back to the start of last season, they lead the NFL in rushing defense, allowing just 86.6 yards per game. They ranked No. 1 against the run in 2025 and have allowed just 191 rushing yards through two games this season.
Chiefs at Dolphins
Kostos’ picks
Straight-up: Chiefs
Bet: Chiefs -10.5 (value up to -13)
Bearman’s stats and trends
Spread trend: Double-digit home underdogs are 22-13-1 ATS since the start of the 2021 season, good for a 62.9 percent cover rate.
Total trend: Patrick Mahomes has played in five previous games as a double-digit road favorite. All five games have gone under the total.
Dolphins’ woes: The Dolphins are the only team in the NFL that has yet to hold a lead this season and the only team that has yet to record a sack. They’ve been out-sacked 9-0 through two games.
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Titans at Giants
Kostos’ picks
Straight-up: Titans
Bet: Titans at +3 (no bet at +2.5)
Bearman’s stats and trends
Mixed results for Giants defense: In Week 1, the Giants held the Cowboys to 244 yards (69 rushing, 175 passing). Last Monday, the Giants allowed 481 yards (163 rushing, 318 passing) to the Rams.
Giant injuries: Jaxson Dart, Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo have been on the field together for just 43 of the Giants’ 1,208 offensive plays over the past two seasons — just 3.5 percent.
Titans’ offensive struggles: The Titans are averaging only 243 yards per game, 31st in the NFL, including just 148 passing yards per game. They are also dead last at just 50 offensive plays per game.
Bengals at Steelers
Picks
Kostos’ straight-up pick: Steelers
Kostos’ bet: Steelers +3.5 (no bet at +3)
Mock’s bet: Under 42.5 (value up to 42)
Bearman’s stats and trends
Bengals’ 2-0 start: They’ve won their first two games for the second straight season after starting the previous three seasons 0-2. The last time they had back-to-back 2-0 starts was 2014 and 2015.
Joe Burrow on the road: The Bengals quarterback is 17-4 outright as a road favorite, winning each of his past nine such games and 13 of the last 14.
Steelers’ QB play: Aaron Rodgers (-42.12) has the worst EPA among quarterbacks through the first two weeks of the season.
Seahawks at Commanders
Kostos’ picks
Straight-up: Seahawks
Bet: None
Bearman’s stats and trends
Seahawks’ stalwart defense:
They are the first team since 2006 to not allow a play of 20 or more yards through two weeks.
They are allowing a league-low 3.7 yards per play, far below the league average of 5.4.
Spread trend: Seattle was 5-0 ATS when playing in the Eastern Time Zone last season and has covered the past seven games in this spot.
Cardinals at 49ers
Picks
Straight-up: 49ers
Bet: None
Mock’s bet: Over 47.5 (value up to 48)
Bearman’s stats and trends
49ers receiving corps: Per NFL Next Gen Stats, 49ers receivers created 4.84 yards of separation per target last Sunday against the Dolphins, the most in Week 2.
49ers’ QB play: Among the many good stats from Brock Purdy last week, he was 10-for-10 for 211 yards and a touchdown.
Spread trend: Over the last two seasons, the Niners are 1-5 in divisional home games, going 0-6 ATS.
Vikings at Buccaneers
Picks
Kostos’ straight-up pick: Vikings
Kostos’ bet: Vikings -1.5 (value up to -2.5)
Mock’s bet: Under 42.5 (no lower)
Bearman’s stats and trends
Spread trend: The Buccaneers have now tied the 1983-84 Houston Oilers for the longest documented ATS losing streak in NFL history (0-11).
Vikings’ defensive pressure: Per NFL Next Gen Stats, the Vikings’ QB pressure rate of nearly 50 percent trails only the Raiders for highest in the NFL.
Bucs’ QB issues: Baker Mayfield is 27th in ESPN’s QBR at 45.4. His -21.15 EPA is third-worst in the NFL.
Ravens vs. Cowboys
In Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Picks
Kostos’ straight-up pick: Ravens
Kostos’ bet: None if Zay Flowers is out; Ravens at only -3 or better if Flowers plays
Mock’s bet: Over 52.5 (value up to 53)
Bearman’s stats and trends
Historic total: At 52.5 points or higher, this over/under would be tied for the second highest in an international NFL game. All four totals that were 50 or more points ended up going under.
Spread trend: This marks the 32nd straight start in which Lamar Jackson is a favorite. He is 19-12 straight up and 14-16-1 ATS.
Cowboys’ QB play: Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Dak Prescott generated +17.9 EPA across his dropbacks against Washington, the most among any quarterback who faced a pressure rate north of 40 percent in a game over the last two seasons.
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Raiders at Saints
Kostos’ picks
Straight-up: Saints
Bet: Saints -3 (no bet at -3.5)
Bearman’s stats and trends
Spread trend: The Raiders have covered three straight and four of their past five divisional games (three of those four covers came by more than five points).
Raiders’ offensive line wins: Through the first two weeks of the season, the 2-0 Raiders lead the NFL in ESPN’s OL Pass Block Win Rate metric (63 percent).
Saints’ late-game defense: The Saints have gone eight consecutive games without allowing a fourth-quarter touchdown. The last one they allowed came on Nov. 23, 2025 against the Falcons.
Rams at Broncos
Kostos’ picks
Straight-up: Rams
Bet: Rams -2.5 (no bet at -3)
Bearman’s stats and trends
Spread trend: Bo Nix has won 16 of 19 home games, including covering in 13 of them in his short career.
Rams on a short week: They are 11-3 in games coming off fewer than six days’ rest since 2021.
Rams’ offensive success: Los Angeles is averaging 385.5 yards per game, sixth in the NFL, with a 44.8 percent offensive success rate, tied for eighth.
Eagles at Bears
Kostos’ picks
Straight-up: Eagles
Bet: None
Bearman’s stats and trends
Eagles’ offensive struggles: Philadelphia has gained only 659 yards through two games, and 144 came on its final possession of each game. Removing those two late drives, the Eagles have scored 34 points on 17 possessions while producing -12.2 EPA on 106 rushes and dropbacks.
Bears’ offensive letdown: The drop-off from 59 points in Week 1 to three points in Week 2 was stark. Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores blitzed Chicago and Caleb Williams all game, resulting in fewer than 300 yards and 4.2 yards per play. The Bears had 7.7 per play in Week 1.
This game could be decided on the ground: When these two teams met on Black Friday last year, the Bears rushed for 281 yards in Chicago’s 24-15 win in Philadelphia.
Sep 27, 2026
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