Now, here’s a second down drop-back in man coverage (Cover-1). With only a single-high safety needed, the Patriots can rush five to create 1-on-1 matchups across the line. Lawrence runs a straight drop-back from under center, and with the coverage holding up downfield, second-year OLB Elijah Ponder uses a great “ghost” rush to beat RT Cole Van Lanen to get Lawrence to climb into a sack as the pocket collapses.
After starting zone-heavy, DC Zak Kuhr went down swinging with a 50% man coverage rate in the second half (17-5 zone-heavy split in the first half). One would expect the Patriots to have a high man coverage rate all season. Still, you need some off-speed pitches, especially against condensed-formation offenses that use significant motion like the Jaguars. The Pats zone coverage curveballs let the defense down on Sunday.
Quick-Hit Film Notes From Patriots-Jaguars
– On 15 carries, the Patriots RBs had a combined six(!) rushing yards before contact. That shows the lack of movement the Pats are generating in the run game, with New England finishing with a 16th-percentile rushing success rate (26%). It’s tough to get on the backs when the Patriots are 29th in average rushing yards before contact (0.5) and 25th in expected rushing yards per carry (4.0), but some yards are being left on the field.
With his speed, Henderson could really use some more creativity with his runs. The Pats are heavily featuring duo schemes (double teams inside) that often create bounce-out opportunities when the edges/force defenders squeeze too far inside to play the double teams. Henderson could also manipulate second-level defenders a bit better to bounce into open gaps. It’s nitpicky, but better vision and more imaginative runs are the next step for the second-year back.
– The right guard position with starter Mike Onwenu (IR) out long-term is worrisome. Greg Van Roten (two) and Walter Rouse (four) allowed six combined pressures and were on the scene for three stuffed runs. Van Roten struggled to stay square with rushers getting on his outside edge before leaving the game with a thigh injury, while Rouse’s issues came in the second half, where maybe conditioning was a factor for the Pats third-string right guard. We knew Onwenu was a big loss, and the first test didn’t go well.
– WR Mack Hollins seems to be the only receiver Maye has clear chemistry with right now. For example, Hollins’s 21-yard deep curl on third down was an in-rhythm play where he ran off CB Travis Hunter, separated at the top of the route, and Maye was on time with the throw. They also connected on a 13-yard back-shoulder fade, but Hollins’s taunting penalty forced the Pats to kick a field goal rather than go for a 4th-and-1 late in the game. Getting in the end zone would’ve been a nice boost for the offense.
– WR DeMario Douglas is the Patriots best downfield separator, but the inconsistencies in his connection with Maye remain. Douglas hit a 38-yard vertical route explosive on a “cheat” motion, but Maye threw too high for his 5-foot-8 receiver when he separated from man coverage on the “dash” protection play, and Douglas’s landmarks/spacing still feel like an issue at times (second third-down play). It just doesn’t feel quite detailed enough for Douglas’s separation to translate into high-volume production.
– WR Romeo Doubs didn’t hit on a 21-yard and 20-yard dig until garbage time, with one of those receptions coming from backup QB Tommy DeVito. He also got called for an OPI for pushing off at the top of his curl route and Maye threw too far inside on a back-shoulder fade intended for Doubs (more on the QB than Doubs). They need more from the Doubs-Maye connection, and they need it now. With Brown out, you wonder if Doubs is playing more ‘X’ than they envisioned with him repping mostly as the ‘Z’ in camp.
– WR Kyle Williams needs to do more to separate on his route on Maye’s second interception – the mid-stem stutter and lack of drive back to the ball at the top of the route won’t get NFL corners uncomfortable. Williams did well to mirror Maye’s movement and break open off-script on his 34-yard reception, but even then, the second-year wideout stepped out of bounds. Those are frustrating plays, especially when the offense is looking for a spark. After Williams stepped out of bounds, the next three plays were: throw-away to Hollins, throw-away to Douglas, 9-yard slant+taunting penalty on Hollins, 40-yard field goal.
– TE Hunter Henry’s only catch came on a 5-yard out off a boot, with Maye and Henry unable to connect on his other third-down target. I don’t have a good reason for you as to why Henry isn’t a bigger focal point as a crafty zone beater. Even if he’s lost a step at 31, his savvy against zone should age gracefully. Teams do seem to be jumping the stick routes he and Maye love. Maybe a stick-nod or two to keep them honest?
– LT Will Campbell allowed one hurry when his two-hand punch didn’t land against Josh Hines-Allen’s cross-chop rush. He has a few short corners a game, and gets chip-help every week, but Campbell isn’t on the list of the Patriots problems at the moment.
– LG Alijah Vera-Tucker allowed an early bull-rush pressure and was picked off his block on a stuffed run, but was solid again this week. Campbell and Vera-Tucker passing off a tricky stunt by the Jags to keep Maye clean was one silver lining/sign of progress for this left-side duo.
– C Jared Wilson had a quiet day in pass protection with zero pressures allowed after a shaky performance in Week 2. The Jags left him uncovered and slanted inside to prevent him from climbing to the second level, which muddied up the Pats run game throughout the day.
– RT Morgan Moses struggled with three pressures allowed and a holding penalty that wiped out Maye’s rushing TD. Those are tough because the blockers don’t know where Maye is, but Moses has to let go of Walker sooner to avoid a hold. Moses also missed a cut block that eventually resulted in pressure. Vrabel denied that he was benched, with rookie Caleb Lomu getting some run late in the blowout.
– OT Caleb Lomu was a bit shaky in his first extended action (20 plays at RT). He got beat for two pressures, one where he didn’t land his punch with the rusher coming off a chip and another where he had a short corner trying to match high-side speed (sack). I’m not going to overreact to Lomu in mop-up duty, but you’d like to see better technique in pass protection.
– QB Pressures (pressure rate – 41.4%): Rouse (4 – sack, three hurries), Moses (three hurries), Lomu (two hurries), Van Roten (two hurries), Campbell (hurry), Henry (hurry), Stevenson (hurry), Maye (two sacks).
– The back-breaker for the Pats defense was giving up two third-down conversions from inside the red zone on 3rd-and-11 and 3rd-and-goal from the NE 17 (third quarter). First, the Pats sent a zero blitz that produced a free runner (S Kevin Byard), but CB Carlton Davis III had too much cushion in off-coverage (Meyers for 13 yards). Then, NCB Marcus Jones got out-muscled on the goal line, where Washington ran through Jones on a seam. At 14-3, you have to hold them to three and keep it a two-score game there.
– My concern level at nose tackle is growing after it was a problem in 2-of-3 games this season. The Jags combo’d the nose successfully on at least three runs (Durden twice, Farmer once). They’re not occupying blocks enough inside to get early penetration or keep double teams/combination blocks off the linebackers, which is allowing offenses to move the line of scrimmage and methodically run the ball. It might be time to see if DT DaQuan Jones can take on a larger workload (he was their most effective NT).
– EDGE Gabe Jacas had three total pressures and two stuffed runs. The second-rounder had a great stuff on a trap play to his side where he slipped RG Ezra Cleveland’s pull and finished the running back with impressive stopping power on contact. Although it still counts, Jacas’s pressures are coming vs. play-action. If he develops a 1-on-1 pass rush toolbox, watch out, because Jacas is already making plays against the run and knifing through the line of scrimmage to pressure the quarterback on play-actions. The lone blemish for Jacas was a neutral zone infraction that gave the Jags a free five yards before the half.
– EDGE Elijah Ponder had three pressures and a run stuff but was a mixed bag. He allowed a touchdown in coverage in a “drop-8” scheme, was on the scene for runs of 12 and 7 yards, and jumped offside like Jacas, so Lawrence must’ve been doing something with the cadence. Ponder used a nice “ghost” rush to dip underneath RT Cole Van Lanen to force Lawrence to step into the line where he converged with Jacas for the sack. The young edges were a bit boom-or-bust with some splash plays and some negative ones.
– DT Milton Williams had a run stuff when he pressed a single block and mirrored the back into the gap for a stuffed run, but he failed to log a pressure on 24 pass-rush snaps. Williams saw a team-high 10 double teams and has been doubled 38.2% of the time through three weeks. Williams is getting extra attention, so others need to win 1-on-1, but Williams also needs to find ways to impact the game. This defense needs his splash plays.
– DT Christian Barmore left the game at one point with a shoulder injury. He logged a QB hit by powering through LG Emmanuel Pregnon’s outside edge, but he only played 28 snaps between the injury and the game getting away from the Patriots in the second half. One to monitor at practice this week.
– LB Robert Spillane was shaky with his zone drops and missed a tackle trying to string out a run (six yards). Spillane didn’t get enough depth in his middle-hook drop on an 18-yard completion on third down and was the closest to a 15-yard check down when the Pats played a 5-man zone. Spillane will be tested in coverage every week as teams shy away from the Pats corners.
– LB Christian Elliss is having a great start to the season and is one of the defense’s top pass-rushers with two more pressures, including a tight wrap where he showed some impressive bend to dip underneath Cleveland on an interior twist. Elliss also made a terrific screen stuff where he held the Jags to a 2-yard gain on a play that could’ve gone for much more. Elliss has really come into his own in this defense.
– CB Christian Gonzalez allowed a rare third-down conversion in off-man coverage where he slipped at the top of his pedal and couldn’t close on a 14-yard dig by Meyers. Meyers’s catch was the only reception Gonzalez allowed into his coverage, with a bang-bang pass breakup where he sniped a crosser from the other side of the formation, and a great coverage stick on third down to come from his quarters perch to blow up a check down. Gonzalez’s zone coverage instincts have really improved in a year-plus with these coaches.
– CB Carlton Davis III was busy in his return with a team-high six targets in coverage. Davis gave up some completions underneath his off-coverage, mainly the Meyers third-down conversion, but also an 8-yard under and an 8-yard curl. That said, Davis mostly limited the damage and blew up two WR screens that he read like a book, including a near-INT – don’t throw screens to his side.
– NCB Marcus Jones was also busy with a tip-drill interception, another near-INT/PBU falling underneath a slant in zone, and he blanketed several bootleg routes. However, Washington out-muscled Jones by running through him on the goal line for a 17-yard TD. Washington had another highlight-reel catch over Jones in the back corner of the end zone that was nullified by a penalty. It was a tough few plays in what was otherwise a competitive performance.
– S Jaylen Reed filled in for starter Craig Woodson and was a mixed bag. Reed was in coverage on Meyers’s TD, getting his weight too far on his outside foot as Meyers set him up in the stem to break across his face for the score. Reed also missed a tackle in the flat that turned into a 23-yard gain to TE Brenton Strange. Reed’s hit-or-miss tackling in space isn’t new. On a positive note, he had tight man coverage on Lawrence’s INT and tipped the pass that led to Jones’s interception. Reed seems more comfortable covering big slot receivers (and tight ends) than playing deep zones, which is why he’s ideally their third safety.
– S Kevin Byard III logged a QB hit on a cover zero blitz but couldn’t affect the throw enough to force an incompletion and got lead-blocked on a 12-yard toss. Byard is being asked to do more than sit in centerfield. It remains to be seen if the 33-year-old is up for playing closer to the line of scrimmage at this stage of his career.
– Pressures (pressure rate – 31.3%): Ponder (3 – sack, hit, hurry), Jacas (3 – sack, hit, hurry), Elliss (2 – QB hit, hurry), Barmore (QB hit), Byard (hurry), D. Jones (hurry), Reed (hurry). Run stuffs: Spillane (3), Jacas (2), one (Pharms, Hunter, Farmer, Ponder, Canada, Williams, Byard).
– Coverage: Spillane (3/3/38 yards), Reed (4/2/33 yards/TD), Davis III (6/5/33 yards/PBU), M. Jones (5/3/28 yards/INT/PBU/TD), Gonzalez (3/1/14 yards/PBU), Woods (1/1/13 yards), Ponder (1/1/12 yards/TD), Elliss (2/2/9 yards), Jacas (1/1/2 yards).