The map just keeps getting bigger and better for Democrats.
Over the last week, The Cook Political Report shifted 15 races toward Democrats, creating three new “tossup” districts in conservative swaths of North Carolina, Texas and Florida. It made another 10 red districts a little less red.
One notable development: Cook moved a Republican incumbent running for re-election in a seat not redrawn by redistricting to the lean Democratic column for the first time. It is Representative Thomas Kean Jr. of New Jersey, who was absent from the House for months this year, which he said was because of depression.
Top Talker
Trump is increasingly leaning on taxpayer funds to boost his image ahead of the midterm elections.
This weekend, a black-and-white video created during his 2024 presidential run began airing on televisions. Except that this time, the video had a new disclaimer: “Paid for by the U.S. Government.”
Critics say the president is violating laws against using public funds for propaganda. The White House is calling the ads “public service announcements.”
At least three such ads have run so far.
The ads have received some bipartisan criticism.
“I don’t think any public official, including President Trump or Kristi Noem or John Kennedy, should spend public money on — on private ads for themselves,” Senator John Kennedy, Republican of Louisiana, said Sunday on CBS News’s “Face the Nation.”
The Money
Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC is spending in deeply Republican territory in an apparent effort to hold down the size of a Democratic wave.
The group is investing in two districts in Texas — the Ninth and the 15th Districts — which Trump would have won by nearly 20 points, if they had existed in their current shape in 2024.
This strategy isn’t limited to Texas. Trump’s group has spent nearly $2 million on the open seat in the 11th District in North Carolina, which the president won by 9.5 percentage points in 2024. Democrats, hungry for a pickup, are also spending big there.
One Key Metric
The average price for a gallon of gas as of Sunday: $4.48, per AAA. That’s almost 40 cents more per gallon than a month ago.
One Poll Number
66 percent.
That’s the percentage of voters who disapprove of Trump’s handling of the war in Iran, according to the NYT/Siena poll released last week — a figure that has alarmed Republicans.
On the Ground
Two defining political issues of 2026 collided last week when federal immigration raids hit cattle country. Industry associations in Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas warned that the immigration enforcement could cause beef prices to jump higher than they already are — and that it could create new problems for cattle farmers who are already struggling with drought, pests and tariffs.
“We need some help, and these ICE raids do not help,” said Sid Miller, the Texas agriculture commissioner and a Republican.
Quote of the Week
“I was trying to warn people that if they actually wanted to hold the seat, that I would be a safer bet.”
Senator John Cornyn of Texas speaking to Punchbowl News, essentially saying: Told you so. Cornyn lost his primary to Ken Paxton after Trump threw his weight behind the Texas attorney general; now he’s watching his party spend nine figures to help Paxton keep a seat that Cornyn handily won four times.
Worth a Thousand Words