Oil prices ease as renewed Iran talks and recovering Saudi exports temper supply fears.
Europe’s LNG Buying Spree Comes With the Clock Ticking
– Europe is finally ramping up imports of liquefied natural gas ahead of the winter heating season, following a disappointing summer when deliveries were 30% below 2025 levels.
– The 30-day moving average of Europe’s LNG imports stood at 267,000 metric tonnes per day, catching up with last year’s trendline, thanks to a recovery in US LNG flows, accounting for 69% of the total.
– The arbitrage for US LNG into Europe is now finally workable, with landed LNG prices hovering around $24 per MMBtu – giving the same netback as Asia’s JKM considering the $1.5 per MMBtu freight difference.
– Europe’s LNG awakening is a race against time as the Old Continent’s inventory builds are expected to halt soon, with regionwide stocks currently 71% full – a notable downgrade compared to 82% a year ago.
– The continuous backwardation of gas futures in Europe has made winter storage commercially unviable, with the October TTF contract still €0.5 per MWh above December, traditionally the peak of European gas demand.
Market Movers
– UK oil major BP (NYSE:BP) is reportedly considering buying Devon Energy’s (NYSE:DVN) South Texas shale assets worth around $4.5 billion, seeking to boost its Eagle Ford portfolio by some 80,000 boe/d.
– Italian energy giant ENI (BIT:ENI) was awarded a 100% participating interest in the Sapukala offshore exploration block in Indonesia’s Kutei basin, doubling down on the country after the giant Geng North discovery (5 TCf) in 2023.
– A Kenyan court ordered construction to be paused at Dangote’s $16 billion oil refinery in Lamu, less than a week before its September 30 groundbreaking ceremony, after a group of petitioners filed a case opposing the project.
– The former campaign manager of new Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella, Joaquin Gutierrez, has been appointed the new president of the country’s state oil major, Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC).
– Brazilian state oil firm Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) signed a memorandum of understanding for joint upstream activities with Mozambique, eyeing its second entry point into Africa’s deepwater offshore drilling after a strategic partnership sealed with Angola in 2025.
Tuesday, September 29, 2026
The renewed prospect of US-Iran negotiations has cooled last week’s rally, bringing ICE Brent lower towards $104 per barrel, however, Donald Trump’s comments about ‘offering Iran nothing’ might seem to suggest that the Pakistan-mediated talks would once again lead nowhere. The restart of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and first loadings from Yanbu provided some additional downward pressure on prices; however, the Houthi risk remains a genuine threat to recovering Saudi flows.
Qatar Extends LNG Supply Cuts into Winter. QatarEnergy prolonged its LNG supply force majeure for Asian customers through November as Hormuz flows remain restricted, with monthly loadings down 80% vs pre-war levels to just 1.5 million tonnes, sending liquefied gas mostly to nearby Kuwait.
IEA Keeps Another Emergency Oil Release on the Table. Member states of the International Energy Agency could discuss further strategic stock releases if supply conditions deteriorate, according to the organization’s chief Fatih Birol, with the agency closely monitoring diesel and product markets.
Aramco Weighs $100 Billion Gas Unit Listing. Saudi Arabia’s national oil company Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) hired US investment firm Evercore (NYSE:EVR) to advise on a restructuring that seeks to create a standalone $100 gas division amidst mounting fiscal pressures from Riyadh.
Trump Gives US Gasoline Demand a Longer Lifeline. The Trump administration finalized its long-mulled revamp of fuel economy standards, with automakers now needing to achieve a fleet average of 34.9 miles/gallon for cars and light trucks by 2031, down from Biden’s 50 miles/gallon mandate.
Russia Draws a Deeper Veil Over Its Energy Trade. Russia’s President Putin signed a decree further restricting disclosure of information about oil and refined products to counter Western sanctions, banning any information about the price, sellers, buyers, routes and destinations of energy exports.
Saudi Arabia Restores Its Vital Hormuz Oil Bypass. Saudi Aramco restored flows through the East-West Pipeline flows to around 3.5 million b/d following a 10-day halt triggered by a series of drone strikes, although the 7 million b/d system will remain below capacity for a further 4-5 weeks.
China Awards All 2026 Import Quotas. China’s Ministry of Commerce has issued all remaining crude import quotas for 2026, granting some 205 million barrels (the remaining 30% of this year’s tally) to Shandong’s oil-deprived teapots, however high prices of spot barrels might restrict future imports.
FERC Rejects Exxon’s Crude Complaint. The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) has rejected a complaint from US major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) against the Locap crude pipeline over the alleged delivery of zinc-contaminated crude, claiming it overstated Locap’s testing obligations.
Libya Restores Flows from Its Largest Oil Field. Libya’s NOC stated that it resumed regular crude oil pumping along its Sharara-Zawia pipeline after an eight-day closure triggered by protests, allowing output at the 300,000 b/d El Sharara field and oil flows to the Zawia refinery to recover gradually.
Iran Expands Its Hormuz Threat to Charterers. Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority warned that charterers directing vessels through unauthorized routes would be added to Tehran’s blacklist, signaling a potential expansion of its threats after listing 81 tankers that transited the Hormuz.
Kazakhstan Advances Giant Kashagan Fine. A Kazakh court dismissed a lawsuit by the operator of the country’s largest offshore field, the 400,000 b/d Kashagan, that sought to overturn Astana’s decision to enforce the collection of $5 billion in environmental fines related to sulphur storage.
Saudi Arabia Weighs Discounts to Lure Buyers. Saudi national oil firm Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) is reportedly considering offering discounts, potentially up to $9 per barrel, to its official selling prices for October cargoes loaded off the Omani coast, seeking to regain market share.
Northern Star Rejects $27 Billion Gold Mega-Merger. Australian gold producer Northern Star (ASX:NST) rejected an unsolicited takeover proposal from South African miner Gold Fields, claiming that its $27 billion bid undervalued the firm that would create the world’s second-largest miner.
India’s Fuel Price Freeze Triggers Retail Rationing. India’s private refiners Reliance and Nayara have started to ration diesel and gasoline sales as state-fixed pump prices leave retailers selling below cost, diverting demand toward state-run stations that are already losing about $55 million daily.
BASF Seeks to Build a German Chemicals Champion. German chemicals giant BASF (ETR:BAS) has approached its smaller peer Evonik over a possible takeover that could combine its $52 billion business with the latter’s $11 billion market cap, seeking synergies to compete with Chinese giants.
India Drains Coal Stocks to Keep the Lights On. India’s coal power plant inventories have plunged by more than 50% year-over-year to 19.4 million tonnes, a 3-year low, as power generators are forced to cover weak hydropower output and a 7.7 GW night-time deficit amidst a drier monsoon season.
By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com