Left: Christine Drazan at her election night party on Tuesday, May 19, 2026. Right: Gov. Tina Kotek at her victory announcement on Nov. 10, 2022.
Saskia Hatvany and Kristyna Wentz-Graff / OPB
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Worries about rising costs, high taxes, entrenched homelessness and poor leadership are major factors for Oregonians — and helping drive a neck-and-neck governor’s race this year that shows no sign of breaking decisively for either candidate.
That’s the takeaway from a new poll commissioned by Oregon Public Broadcasting this month. The survey of 915 likely voters is the largest sampling to date of political opinions in the Beaver State this election year and will be the subject of future stories on voter sentiment in Oregon and Southwest Washington.
The poll suggests that the race between Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek and Republican state Sen. Christine Drazan is nearly deadlocked roughly two weeks before ballots go out to voters.
When asked initially who they were most likely to vote for, 46% of voters chose Drazan and 44% named Kotek. An additional 3% picked Brett Smith, the lone third-party candidate in the race, and 8% were undecided.
Results changed somewhat when pollsters pressed undecided voters on which candidate they were leaning toward, a step pollster John Horvick said offered the clearest reflection of where the race stands. That resulted in Drazan receiving 47% support to Kotek’s 46%. Smith maintained 3%, and 5% of respondents remained undecided.
The poll’s margin of error is 3.24%.
The findings are the latest sign that Democrats are once again struggling to sell a record of accomplishment to a skeptical public — a theme that has played out in each of the last three races for governor.
Fewer than 30% of respondents to OPB’s poll said they believe the state is going in the right direction, and 58% signaled that it’s on the wrong track.
Kotek, who is seeking a second four-year term, has spent much of her campaign linking Drazan to the unpopular policies of President Donald Trump rather than touting her own record. OPB’s poll suggested the governor has only a slightly better image than Trump among Oregon voters: a 38% favorability rating to the president’s 37%.
“There are still many undecided voters ahead of November. But when the choice is clear in an election, they always show up,” Federico Araujo, communications director for Kotek’s campaign, said in a statement responding to the poll. “The choice couldn’t be any clearer in this race: Christine Drazan is ready to open the door to Trump’s agenda and Governor Kotek is fighting every day to protect Oregonians from federal overreach and harm.”
Drazan, meanwhile, has worked to convince voters that Kotek has failed on major issues like school achievement, housing and improving the economy. She had favorable marks from 45% of likely voters.
“Poll after poll is showing that Oregonians of all political stripes are fed up with Tina Kotek’s failed leadership and finding more and more reasons to support Christine Drazan,” Trey Rosser, a campaign consultant for Drazan, said in a provided response. “While Kotek is busy blaming and shaming other people for problems that have gotten worse on her watch, Christine is building support around her plan to lower costs, tackle homelessness, build more housing, improve education, and demand accountability from state government.”
Drazan’s argument appears to be more successful among her supporters — for now. Of those who said they are likely to vote for Kotek, less than 80% reported having a favorable opinion of the governor. Meanwhile, more than 90% of likely Drazan voters have a positive view of their candidate.
“Drazan has really solidified her base. She doesn’t need to do anything to get Republicans to be supportive of her,” said Horvick, senior vice president at DHM Research, the firm that conducted the poll for OPB. “Can she peel off enough Democrats or left-leaning independents and unaffiliated voters to win?”
He continued: “The other side of the story is there’s this group of voters that maybe should naturally be Kotek’s, and it’ll be her opportunity in the next month to try to get them back.”
The all-important Portland metro area is likely to be a focus for both candidates. OPB’s poll shows that Kotek is currently attracting 54% of voters from the tri-county region – less than the roughly 61% of voters she won there in the 2022 election. Drazan had support from 40% of metro area voters, but led Kotek among voters in the rest of the state.
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The top issues on Oregonian voters’ minds this year are largely economic. When asked the top problem the state faces, 52% of respondents answered either cost of living, housing affordability, high tax rates or the job market. Homelessness and poor leadership were also on voters’ minds.
Those results shift somewhat depending on party affiliation.
Democrats’ top concerns this year include cost of living, housing affordability, Trump and climate change. Republicans’ are more focused on high taxes, poor leadership, Democrats’ political dominance in Oregon and homelessness. Nonaffiliated voters, who outnumber members of either party but are less likely to vote, said high costs, homelessness, taxes and poor leadership were the state’s top challenges.
Data centers and artificial intelligence — two topics that have become a flashpoint in state and national politics — barely rated among voters’ top-level concerns in this poll. But when asked specifically about issues that would motivate their vote this year, 72% of likely voters said data centers would influence their votes — still well behind the rate of cost of living, the economy and K-12 schools.
Perhaps hopefully for Drazan, a plurality of Oregon voters say they trust a conservative leader more on economic matters. The poll showed 44% of likely voters would prefer a conservative to tackle those issues. Drazan has made slashing business regulation and juicing the state’s economy a centerpiece of her campaign.
There’s positive news for Kotek, too. Oregonians would prefer their governor to be liberal on social issues, with 42% saying they preferred that approach. The governor has emphasized her stances on protecting abortion access and safeguarding LGBTQ+ rights as she campaigns for a second term.
Horvick noted the issues animating voters this year are very different from four years ago, when Kotek faced Drazan for the first time. In that race, homelessness, crime and unchecked drug use topped voter concerns.
OPB’s poll suggests the governor’s race is growing tighter as Election Day nears. Polls conducted in late June and early September showed Drazan up by 4% and 2%, respectively. The OPB survey shows fewer undecided voters than past results and the Republican margin at just 1%,well within the poll’s margin of error.
The poll was conducted from Sept. 17-27. It used a mix of telephone interviews and text messages that directed Oregon voters to an online form.
Despite the fact that a Republican has not won the governor’s office since 1982, there’s precedent for the party having an edge at this stage in the race. In 2022, Drazan led most public polls through November, only to see her lead collapse in the final days.
“This is Kotek’s real problem: If she loses, she’s going to lose because she lost support from broadly moderate Democrats in the Portland metro area,” said Horvick. “Can Kotek hold on to those skeptical Democrats? We have 40 years of history to suggest that it’s more likely than not that a Democrat will do that, but when a Democrat loses, it’s going to be because of that.”
This year, Republicans’ chief concern may be monetary. Drazan has reported raising $11.1 million since January 2025, about $2.5 million less than Kotek. But because she needed to navigate a competitive Republican primary, Drazan has less than $1 million on hand, compared to more than $8 million in Kotek’s war chest.
Drazan has scheduled appearances besides national Republican figures as she looks to spur fundraising. Last weekend, she appeared alongside Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at a Republican Party dinner in Hillsboro, inspiring fierce criticism from Democrats who painted the Floridian as a henchman for Trump. On Wednesday, she is scheduled to appear alongside Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte in Eugene.