We look at how some concerning economic indicators as well as the ongoing war in Iran might affect the midterm elections.

Transcript

SCOTT SIMON, HOST:

The midterm elections are a month away. Voters have a lot to consider between economic news, ongoing trade wars and over seven months of an actual war with Iran. NPR’s Ron Elving joins us. Thanks for being with us.

RON ELVING, BYLINE: Good to be with you, Scott.

SIMON: Lots of economic news this week – underwhelming jobs report, rising mortgage rates, wage hikes not keeping up with inflation – all indicators hitting American families. What kind of effect do you think they might have on the midterms?

ELVING: Voters are consumers first, and when they get hit in their wallets, they look for a way to hit back. And that target tends to be the party in power or the incumbents on the ballot. That’s a long-standing truism in politics. And President Trump has given it extraordinary elevation by telling voters to pretend he is on the ballot, which, of course, he’s not. But he’s insisting that he is and that everything is not only rosy, but golden. He says he gives his administration, quote, “an A-plus on everything,” unquote.

Now, the truth is there were elements in this jobs report – manufacturing and construction jobs, for example – that the White House could be happy about. But it was well below expectations overall and also cut back the estimates of jobs created in previous months. So not what any president or any party wants in the last big report card before an election that still looks to be about economics more than anything else. Midterms turn on turnout, and anger and disappointment are far greater goads to voting than complacency or wishful thinking. So Vice President JD Vance can say people are focusing on the wrong things or being too impatient, but the Democrats have the easier case to make – blaming the Trump tariffs and Trump’s war in the Middle East.

SIMON: President Trump also turned down the most recent offer from Iran to end the war. Right now, we’re uncertain if bombing will resume, and talks have stalled, right?

ELVING: We don’t really know the status of the talks. The latest, in reality, seems to be the additional aircraft carrier battle group steaming toward the region and 10,000 troops newly mobilized for possible action. Now, of course, that may be saber-rattling to boost the talks for a ceasefire, to put pressure on Iran. Trump keeps saying there’ll be a ceasefire right after the election in America. But politically, he needs something positive to show for this war now, before the midterms that are endangering so many incumbents in Trump’s party.

Such a ceasefire on election eve might be real and lasting, or it might be a lot like some of Trump’s other peace deals, such as he claims to have achieved between Hamas and Israel. But it would still be a better Election Day posture than the U.S. is in now.

SIMON: The President gave a long interview with Time Magazine, which comes as he’s been especially – I think it’s fair to say – combative with some media outlets, trying to ban them from the White House and traveling with them on Air Force One. What stood out to you from that Time interview?

ELVING: Trump has long had a fascination with Time, the magazine. It was at the peak of its influence when he was a young man, and being on its cover was an especially important confirmation of stardom. There were stories years ago about a mock-up Time cover with Trump on the cover at some of his golf resorts. Well, now with this latest cover, he has been on the actual cover 56 times – more than anyone else in the magazine’s history, eclipsing the previous record held by former President Richard Nixon. So this interview may have meant more to him than just another chance to perform in the media spotlight or fight another battle with other media figures. It could be seen as an early effort to fashion his own legacy in the media.

SIMON: Ron, as we approach the midterms, what have you got your eyes on?

ELVING: Right now, there’s a lot of attention being paid to the seats that Democrats are targeting, including Trump states such as Texas, or recently, Ohio, North Carolina and Alaska, and even Kansas, where no Democrat has won a Senate seat since 1932. But I’m also watching the seats the Democrats need to defend if they want to take over the Senate. The seats they have now in New Hampshire, Michigan and Minnesota – retirements have left them vulnerable in these states, and holding on to what you have is essential if you want to make a takeover push in the Senate.

SIMON: NPR’s Ron Elving. Always good to talk to you, my friend. Thanks so much.

ELVING: Thank you, Scott.

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