OTTAWA—Let’s get a little dystopian.

There is a non-zero chance that United States President Donald Trump tries to cancel the mid-term elections, wherein 100 per cent of the House and one-third of the Senate are up for election and re-election. 

First and foremost, understand the jeopardy here: if Democrats were to win majorities in the House and Senate (which polling suggests they will, but never underestimate the chances of the Dems fucking up an easy layup), Trump will be significantly curtailed in what hither to have seemed like unlimited powers. 

No, Canada shouldn’t count on tariff reprieves any time soon, or for the “president” to sound any less batshit crazy on a daily basis, but what Trump can spend, legislation he can pass, and appointments he can make will all be significantly impacted. 

Beyond that—because he and his enablers have aggressively done so with their own opponents over the last 20 months—Team Trump is undoubtedly concerned about the reprisals they may face from a Democratic Congress. Impeachment by the House (again). Trial(s) in the Senate. Possibly (but unlikely) a vote to remove him from office followed by criminal prosecution. All are possible for himself and several others. 

But more than anything, one presumes that Trump and his foul brood are fearful that the gravy train they’ve been riding like a fat kid on the teacups grinds to a halt. Since just January of 2025, Trump and his family have increased their net worth by up to US$4-billion, according to an investigation by The New Yorker (the BBC and several watchdog groups have come to similar conclusions). 

So, this is a big deal—possibly an even bigger deal than losing the 2020 election where upon he unleashed a mob on Congress on Jan. 6, 2021, to try and prevent the lawful transfer of power to Joe Biden. His wanton criminality—and, therefore, his motivation to cheat—has only increased since.

Trump has been clear since then, and ramped up his and his proxy’s rhetoric in recent months that he will assert that elections in America are not “fair”—his term for anything he doesn’t like. And that he believes results that aren’t “fair” should be … dismissed? Ignored? Coloured over with a Sharpie? Unclear, but unsettling to say the least.

In a recent Senate Judiciary Committee appearance, fired special prosecutor Jack Smith, however, was clear that his investigation “developed proof beyond a reasonable doubt that President Trump engaged in serious crimes against our nation,” including around the events of Jan. 6, 2021. 

And, as recently as last week, Peter Navarro—one of Trump’s top advisers, an architect of his tariff-based trade twattery and a former federal inmate—was in the media attacking Canadians in Washington for supposedly working to influence the midterms. He suggested Canadians on K Street (an eponym for Washington lobbyists) should “get the hell out of our country,” and that if these same Canadians “interfere” in the midterms that Canada “will pay even more dearly.” 

Friendly chap. 

Now, the inclination of most sensible people is to ignore most of what Trump and his ilk say. Let’s them sleep better at night. 

But that has been the fatal mistake that has allowed this buffoon to be elected to the White House twice. While Trump is clearly more often than not lying about any number of things, when he says horrible or crazy shit, he is almost always telling on himself. 

So, as Canadians, let’s take him at his word this time: let’s say that a month from now it is clear even to his Adderall-addled, syphilitic mind that he’s going to lose the midterms—bigly. To misquote Sean Connery in The Untouchables, what is he prepared to do?

Why not blame Canada?

Navarro has telegraphed it. Trump (supposedly) blew up an earlier trade deal because Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s Ronald Reagan ads ran during the World Series. The MAGA base remains ignorant enough to believe that his tariffs are about bringing jobs home to America (and not just lining the pockets of his plutocrat pals). 

And so, like Albania in the brilliant political film Wag the Dog, Americans might be told that Canada is to blame for their failing democracy. 

What happens then? Well, nothing good. 

Let’s suppose Trump declares martial law and federalizes the National Guard in a series of swing states like Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, Maine, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Texas, and Alaska. 

Six of those share a border with Canada. 

Would Pete Hegseth’s Department of War actually order “little green men” to line up along the Canada-U.S. border? Hegseth has just announced he’s cutting 20 per cent of the top brass at the Pentagon—twice the number he already announced. Seems safe to assume it won’t be the most compliant, most likely to accept and act on illegal orders that go. 

So maybe 10th Mountain Division rolls out of Fort Drum, N.Y., and heads to bridges across the St. Lawrence from Prescott, the Thousand Islands, and Cornwall. Where they sit. Menacingly. 

What would Canada do? 

While Prime Minister Mark Carney was mocked for acknowledging that it has been a topic of at least thought if not discussion in recent months, Canada has had a “plan” for what to do if the U.S. were to invade since at least 1920. In fact, one of the primary drivers of Confederation in 1867 was the very real prospect of a freshly victorious Union Army turn north to “finish” their continental conquest. 

That’s not to say it was a good plan. Or one likely to succeed. But it certainly isn’t a new idea. 


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What is new—and no doubt a very real part of all the discussions about European Union associate membership, opening a consulate in Greenland (Denmark), both Carney and French President Emmanuel Macron visiting St. Pierre et Miquelon, and countless trips across the Atlantic—is that there is now a reasonable chance that NATO members in Europe understand we can all hang together or we will most certainly hang separately. 

What does that mean? It means that there is now—for the first time in Canada’s history—a realistic possibility that in the event of an American military action towards us we could reasonably count on the assistance of our other NATO allies. German troops. British ships. Maybe even French nuclear deterrent (as they have just offered to Finland). 

No one wants a war. Especially with our closest neighbour. Especially when that neighbour has the largest military on Earth—even if they have run out of many of their most sophisticated weapons by repeatedly winning in Iran. 

But as things continue to get more and more dangerous, surreal, and downright nutty, of course the PM is thinking about “what ifs”—it would be a dereliction for him not to. 

And while it would still be profoundly unpleasant, thanks to the work the government has done rebuilding alliances, partnerships, and our own defence industrial capacity, I’m willing to bet today’s plan for the “unimaginable” is better than the one he inherited. 

But here’s hoping things on the Canada-U.S. file get back to boring nower than later.

Jamie Carroll is a former national director of the Liberal Party of Canada, and now a consultant and entrepreneur.

 

Jamie Carroll is a former national director of the Liberal Party of Canada and is now an entrepreneur and consultant.  See all stories BY JAMIE CARROLL