Sir John Curtice has delivered some hard truths to Tory members in a major polling update on Kemi Badenoch’s leadership two years on from the Conservative Party’s worst-ever result.
The polling guru, who joined Conservative activists in Birmingham for a fringe event hosted by Demos, warned Mrs Badenoch has a lot more to do despite a recent boost for the Tories in the polls.
Sir John said: “There’s some progress, particularly so far as leadership is concerned.
“There’s some improvement in competence, but you’re still not profiting from the Government’s difficulties on the big issues.”
The polling guru pointed out immigration, the economy and NHS remain three issues where voters still find it difficult to throw their support behind the Tories.
Sir John revealed “none of the above” beats the Tories on the bread-and-butter issue of economic management, while Reform UK maintains its appeal on stopping the small boats and lowering legal migration.
Despite Mrs Badenoch’s personal polling ranking higher than Nigel Farage’s figure, Reform UK still maintains a narrow lead over the Tories in most surveys.
“Reform support continues to be very, very heavily concentrated amongst Leave voters,” Sir John explained.
The Conservative Party Conference kicked off in Birmingham on Sunday | PA
“Indeed, around the spring of this year, you, as the party that had delivered Brexit, were barely more popular amongst Leave voters than Remain voters.
“Essentially, the fundamental structural problem you still face is that Nigel Farage whipped from underneath your feet the coalition that elected Boris Johnson to get Brexit done.
“You’ve made a bit of progress in getting it back, but there’s still a long way to go, and that still remains, in a sense, your fundamental challenge.”
Despite Sir John’s warning, Reform UK’s support is down compared to its 30 per cent high in September 2025.
Sir John Curtice delivered his verdict at the Conservative Party Conference
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Donations scandals, lost momentum and the emergence of Restore Britain have all contributed to Reform UK’s downward trend.
A recent poll of polls found Labour is now up to 26 per cent, with Andy Burnham ending Reform UK’s run as the leading party in Britain.
Meanwhile, Reform UK is down to just 23 per cent, putting Mr Farage narrowly ahead of Mrs Badenoch’s Tories on 19 per cent.
Bombshell MRP polls also painted a mixed picture ahead of the next general election.
Nigel Farage still poses an enormous threat to the Tories, Sir John Curtice said
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YouGov suggested the Tories had narrowly entered the lead over Reform UK when it comes to parliamentary seats.
Meanwhile, Survation tipped Mr Farage’s party to pick up almost double as many constituencies.
There is speculation Mr Burnham could call a snap general election in May this year, with both parties on the right scrambling to be in a position to take on the Prime Minister.
Mrs Badenoch used her opening speech at the Conservative Party Conference to point out the changes she had made to improve the Tories’ fortunes.
The Leader of the Opposition received a 10-point net favourability boost compared to this time last year, while Mr Farage’s rating continues to slide.
However, Sir John insisted: “You’re not necessarily any better off than two years ago.”
The polling guru claimed there remains “a lot of baggage” from Boris Johnson and Liz Truss’s days leading the party, with questions being raised about both ethics and competence.
While the Tories are considered more competent compared to a year ago, Mrs Badenoch will still need to win back voters from Reform UK to boost her chances of winning the next general election, with one in four 2024 Conservative voters currently backing Mr Farage.
When asked how Mrs Badenoch could win over Reform UK’s supporters, Sir John concluded: “You’re losing a barrelload of voters still to Reform, and you’re losing nothing to anybody else, while really only picking up handfuls.”
However, the polling guru concluded that Mrs Badenoch’s personal approval rating is proving increasingly attractive to Reform UK supporters.