Giving out checks to Americans has emerged as one of President Trump’s major messages in the final weeks of the campaign season.
But Americans are skeptical, as multiple polls show voters harbor serious doubts about whether Trump will deliver and whether the cost would hurt the economy.
The president is nevertheless determined to escalate the issue with 29 days until the midterm elections. This past weekend, he mentioned checks at every campaign stop and made a new pledge to send $90 to millions of seniors enrolled in Medicare Part B.
The payment is intended to offset October Medicare premiums and will be deposited this month, but Trump emphasized that it will come in the form of cash.
“Over 20 million seniors on Medicare will soon be receiving a deposit of nearly $100 directly into their bank accounts,” he announced on Truth Social. “You’ll get your money almost immediately.”
The Trump administration also began sending out $500 checks to about 950,000 Obamacare enrollees at the beginning of this month, with Trump again repeating his much bigger promise of $5,000 checks to adult Americans if Republicans sweep the midterms.
President Trump walks on stage during a campaign rally in Vandalia, Ohio, on Oct. 3. (Brendan Smilowski/AFP via Getty Images) · BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI via Getty Images
“Presumably the primary activity of the Office of Management and Budget is currently to scour every account in every agency to find loose change that can be sent out prior to the midterm elections,” Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum and a longtime Republican economic aide, quipped in response to the flurry of promises.
“Let’s see what they find this week,” he wrote in a note on Monday.
Voters are skeptical of the plans
In poll after poll, the issue is gaining little traction with key persuadable voters.
A recent Economist/YouGov survey found that only 21% of registered voters felt that Trump would definitely or probably follow through on his $5,000 check promise, against 57% who doubted he would actually deliver.
Another NBC opinion poll last month asked voters whether a midterm candidate supporting the plan would make them more or less likely to support that candidate. Just 21% of respondents said it would make them more likely, compared with 46% who said it would make them less likely; 33% said it would make no difference.
The Marquette Law Poll of Wisconsin found that 70% of residents of the Badger State oppose the checks altogether, and 59% said they would hurt the economy.
The checks have also become a focus for Trump opponents, with a protester outside a recent presidential stop in Texas holding a sign that read “$5,000 doesn’t buy my vote.”
A woman protests as President Trump visits the Peterbilt Motors truck plant on Oct. 1 in Denton, Texas. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images) · Kevin Dietsch via Getty Images
In spite of the skepticism, the president has mentioned the issue at every recent campaign appearance — from Ohio to Alabama to Oklahoma — as well as in different video posts on Truth Social
“We’re going to just close it out by saying I will issue a Trump dividend of $5,000 to every adult citizen in America if the Republicans win,” Trump told the crowd on Saturday in Vandalia, Ohio.
The total payout would cost an estimated $1.2 trillion. Trump added another costly promise at that event when he said he would also make temporary provisions for no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and a rebate for Social Security payments permanent.
The president has more rallies scheduled in the coming days in Grand Island, Neb., San Antonio, Texas, and Syracuse, N.Y.
Many promises for checks during Trump’s 21 months in office
Trump first unveiled his $5,000 check promise this summer at a Republican convention in Texas. It was the latest in a series of similar promises he’s floated since taking office in 2025.
Trump discussed plans for a “DOGE dividend” in early 2025 with a similar $5,000 figure. Last November, he floated $2,000 for all Americans from the “trillions” in tariff revenue.
Both plans were quietly scrapped.
President Trump and Elon Musk are seen at the White House on Sept. 29. The two men had previously promised a “DOGE dividend” before quietly scrapping the plans. (Tierney L. Cross/Pool/For The Washington Post via Getty Images) · The Washington Post via Getty Images
Trump delivered on a pledge to send a $1,776 “Warrior Dividend” to US service members — but the scope was less sweeping. The IRS described the payments as a “supplemental basic allowance for housing payments” for service members, with the paycheck bump made primarily to active-duty members in lower pay grades.
Trump has also repeatedly said that $5,000 checks would be “very easy” despite a deteriorating fiscal situation.
The gross US national debt recently surpassed $40 trillion and has jumped about $4 trillion since Trump’s inauguration in 2025. The government fiscal year just wrapped up with an estimated $2 trillion annual deficit.
The budget hawks at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget note that, “as we close the books on Fiscal Year 2026, the country’s future fiscal outlook is even more dismal.”
Ben Werschkul is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
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