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The list of things going poorly for Donald Trump is long, but high gas prices are arguably at the top. Thanks largely to his war of choice in Iran, the president who pledged “gasoline below $2 a gallon” has instead delivered a national average that currently stands at $4.37. Diesel costs, which recently topped $6 per gallon and are driving up prices for everyone, have especially strained farmers, truckers, and other core Trump constituencies.

Voters seem to have noticed. The New York Times and Siena University, political polling’s most respected dynamic duo, recently surveyed likely voters in five red states where Democrats are putting up a strong showing. In each, voters disliked Trump’s handling of gas prices more than any other issue. The polls also showed Democrats running for Senate and governor tied or leading in four of the five states, including Texas, Ohio, and Alaska.

Gas prices have caused headaches for presidents before, and their spikes and ebbs correlate closely with presidential job approval. That fact seems to have triggered a Trumpian scramble to tame prices before Election Day, while also inviting Iranian counter-efforts to keep them high.

Even presidents have limited means to manipulate gas prices, but that hasn’t stopped this one from trying. Over the summer, after Trump’s ceasefire with Iran collapsed, the U.S. Navy redoubled its efforts to help tankers transit the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for Middle Eastern oil that Iran blockaded. The president has also tugged levers closer to home. To increase supply, he has released millions of barrels from the U.S.’s emergency petroleum stockpile, draining the reserve to its lowest level in 44 years. Last week, his threats to suspend diesel exports to U.S. allies reportedly forced a group of wealthy countries to agree to release 100 million barrels from their own stockpiles. Lowering gas prices may also have motivated a deal Trump announced over the summer that effectively lets the U.S. seize a portion of Venezuela’s oil reserves.

Some of Trump’s efforts seem to be working, at least on the margins. Oil shipments through the strait have risen, nearly reaching their prewar levels last month. Some polls show Trump’s job approval numbers recovering from all-time lows after prices at the pump dropped by a few cents. And given how much attention voters pay to gas, it’s plausible that even small improvements could save vulnerable Republican candidates. Some red states with competitive midterm races have also temporarily reduced gas taxes, including Texas and Ohio.

But in gas prices as in war, the enemy also gets a say (and in this case, Iran gets a say in both). Iranian attacks on shipping have ramped up over the past week. The Houthis, an Iran-aligned Yemeni militia, have started targeting refineries in Saudi Arabia, a U.S. ally that produces about 11 percent of global oil supply. And Trump seems no closer to permanently ending the war, making a sustained drop in gas prices unlikely for now.

It’s a depressing political reality that the clearest driver of Americans’ unhappiness isn’t the Trump family’s naked corruption or immigration agents shooting people in the streets, but rather the cost of refueling one’s car. Yet recent elections have shown just how sensitive voters are to price increases (just ask Joe Biden and Kamala Harris). And after winning the White House back in part over higher prices, Trump’s decision to smash the bright red “make gas more expensive” button may have handed Democrats the biggest electoral gift they could’ve hoped for.

An illustrated reader looks at their phone on the couch.

Tolga Akdoğan

I can’t promise you lower gas prices, but my colleagues have put together some fun evening reads that might at least help lower your blood pressure:


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Are the Polls Wrong Again? Or Is the Blue Wave a Blue Tsunami? We Took a Closer Look.


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Democrats Are Struggling to Beat Susan Collins. You Can (Still) Blame One Man.


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How Trump Can—and Cannot—Still Mess With the Midterms

Listen to the pop-country godmother: If you’re enjoying the country-crossover renaissance exemplified by Ella Langley’s chart-topping song “Choosin’ Texas,” you’re in for a treat: Langley’s mentor, Miranda Lambert, has a new album out. Slate music critic Carl Wilson raves that Crisco is a “nostalgic pleasure cruise through pop-country styles of the past.”

Watch an unhinged new thriller: Verity, starring Anne Hathaway, Dakota Johnson, and Josh Hartnett, brings Colleen Hoover’s most bonkers book to the big screen. Rebecca Onion digs into the movie’s many twists and turns, culminating in “the psychological-thriller equivalent of a plot quadruple axel.”

Remember a beloved Aussie adventurer: Steve Irwin (aka the Crocodile Hunter) charmed viewers with his reptile-wrestling antics and his deep reverence for the natural world. For the 20th anniversary of Irwin’s untimely death, Ivana Rihter reflects on the conservationist’s legacy.

Contemplate a bizarre fashion trend: Why is this Meta executive dressing like he deals weed? Steffi Cao investigates a billionaire’s scruffy makeover, and explores why Silicon Valley’s power players are styling themselves to appear harmless.

And with that, you’ve officially made it through the first day of what promises to be another long news week (aren’t they all, these days?). See you back here tomorrow! 

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