AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein, Pool
Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) is in a surprisingly tough re-election battle for a state that has elected Republicans to the U.S. Senate for nearly a century, and a newly released Democratic internal poll bluntly highlights some of the reasons why.
Marshall is partly being dragged down by President Donald Trump’s poor polling and other headwinds against the GOP in this midterm election year, but there are several factors unique to his race.
Last month, The New York Times published an extensive review of Marshall’s medical career. The senator spent more than 25 years as an obstetrician-gynecologist and, according to court records, had sued more than 700 of his own patients over unpaid medical bills, resulting in 81 who were arrested.
The Times report sparked outrage, as many of Marshall’s patients were financially struggling and lived in a rural area.
Adam Hamilton, a pastor and the Democratic nominee, has emphasized in his campaign messaging economic issues and sought to position himself as a moderate.
CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten said this week that he was seeing a “mathematical perfect storm” of Trump and Marshall’s favorability issues and Hamilton’s appeal that “may be the equation that gets Kansas its first Democratic senator in 94 years.” On Tuesday, the Cook Political Report shifted the Kansas Senate race from Lean Republican to Toss Up.
Recent polling has shown Hamilton with a single-digit but steady lead, and a new internal poll released by the Hamilton campaign illustrates the challenges for Marshall to hang on to his seat.
The poll was conducted by GBAO between Sept. 30 and Oct. 4 among 600 likely voters in Kansas and had a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.
When asked who they supported in the Senate race, 46% said Hamilton, 41% Marshall, and 7% Libertarian candidate David Graham.
“The polling is clear: the more Kansans have gotten to know the candidates, the more Hamilton’s position improves, and the more Marshall’s weakens,” the polling memo argued.
Hamilton was “widely known,” the pollster continued, but still had positive favorability numbers (38% favorable, 29% unfavorable). In contrast, Marshall “is disliked by half of the electorate (33% favorable, 50% unfavorable), with
over four in ten Kansans “very unfavorable” (41%).”
“Even a fifth of Republicans (21%) are unfavorable toward Marshall,” the pollster wrote.
One major issue for Marshall was the report about him suing his own patients, with the pollster attributing the senator’s falling numbers to that news “breaking through” and a recent “disastrous debate performance”:
[A]lmost three times as many say what they’ve heard about Marshall recently has made them less favorable than more favorable (42% less favorable vs. 15% more favorable). Open-ended responses about Marshall reinforce that many have heard about him suing his patients.
By comparison, more say what they’ve heard about Hamilton has made them more favorable toward him (28%) than less (23%).
It was an open-ended question, however, where the poll respondents’ disgust over the lawsuit story really showed. The voters who said the news made them feel less favorable towards Marshall were asked what they had “seen, heard, or read about Roger Marshall over the last few weeks,” and the pollster quoted multiple brutal responses:
“He sent people to prison for medical debt. He was shouted down at a public speaking event.”
“He arrests people for $50.”
“I read an article in national news about him suing patients and some getting arrested over as little as $50. Most all were young mothers or pregnant women.”
“That he sends delinquent patients to jail. That he does whatever Trump tells him to do.”
“That he had his [redacted] handed to him at the State Fair, and maybe if he would listen to the people he represents, he would know how angry they are with him.”
“I didn’t think it was possible for me to think less of that horrible woman-hating, intellectually lazy fool, but seeing that he mercilessly attacked 700 patients with lawsuits, sheriffs, and 18% collections interest is disgusting.”
“Total scumbag, fake Kansan, sued those innocent people, ruining the lives of our neighbors.”
“Bro is literally robbing poor women.”
“Collecting bills from a poor woman who apparently gave birth and then had her arrested for nonpayment. People should pay their bills, but some people are simply unable to. And he is charging something like 16% on the balance, which is ridiculous. I just do not think he is the right person for the position. I do not think he is [sic] done a good job for Kansas or provided the support that Kansas needs.”
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