Jeff Bartos, US envoy to the UN on management and reform, far right, with fellow American diplomats, leaving the UN Security Council closed-door meeting to vote in the latest straw poll in the process to choose the next secretary-general, Oct. 7, 2026. The fifth poll once again revealed no consensus on a candidate. JOHN PENNEY/PASSBLUE
The fifth straw poll of the United Nations Security Council, conducted on Oct. 7, reveals no apparent candidate for UN secretary-general to lead the organization for the next five years, starting on Jan. 1, 2027.
Rebeca Grynspan, nominated by her country Costa Rica, retained her lead in the race, but she dipped to 9 “encourage” votes on Oct. 7 from 10 encourage in the most-recent poll, on Sept. 29. Opposition to her candidacy doubled (6 “discourage”) as well, according to the results of the Wednesday straw poll seen by PassBlue.
The number of “no opinion” for Grynspan, a former Costa Rican vice president and a top UN official, dropped from 2 to 0 in the lastest voting.
The Oct. 7 polling was held soon after the one on Sept. 29, just after the UN General Assembly high-level week ended. The Council’s thinking to hold a poll on Sept. 29, immediately after world leaders had congregated in New York City in large numbers, was to give the seven UN secretary-general candidates opportunities to campaign amid the gathering.
Wednesday’s voting was also meant to determine whether Grynspan’s lead on Sept. 29 (when she had 10 encourage) had gained more momentum and whether consensus was consolidating around her further. But the Oct. 7 poll suggested that more support for her was not a given.
Overall, “discourage” ballots can indicate a veto by a permanent member, or P5: Britain, China, France, Russia and US. Several Council diplomats told PassBlue that the next straw poll is scheduled for Oct. 16 and may be color-coded, so ballots differentiating the P5’s preferences from the other 10 members will be used, but countries’ specific choices will not be clear.
Sylvain Fournel, a French diplomat, leaving the UN Security Council after it held a secret straw poll in the selection process, Oct. 7, 2026. JOHN PENNEY/PASSBLUE
For the first time since the selection process officially started on July 30, Rafael Grossi, nominated by Argentina and the first candidate to publicly declare his intentions to run for the UN’s top job, polled second in the race with six encourage, seven discourage and two no opinion.
But in the Sept. 29 straw poll, he obtained eight encourage and seven discourage and zero no opinion, so his overall standing is still debatable. His numbers have been slightly inconsistent throughout the informal polling process.
Surprising drop
Most dramatically, the coin flipped for Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett of Guyana, who recorded her worst results in the five straw polls so far. On Oct. 7, she received five encourage, nine discourage and one no opinion. By comparison, in the first poll, on July 30, 2026, she garnered nine encourage (her highest results yet), two discourage and four no opinion. In the next three straw polls, she got eight encourage votes each time.
Robert Wood, a former US ambassador to the UN and retired diplomat, tweeted on Oct. 7 about the results: “With Birkett facing a certain veto, it is now a Grossi-Grynspan contest. . . . “
When PassBlue asked Wood to elaborate, he said: “I base my remarks on recent conversations I have had with a number of diplomats at the UN, which have as well been echoed by media reporting. Birkett’s poor performance today likely reflects growing concern governments have about her ability to be impartial and effective as UN secretary general.”
Not one of the other four candidates has made major advances across the series of straw polls and with the Oct. 7 results, they are trending downward: On Oct. 7, Macky Sall of Senegal got five encourage; María Fernanda Espinosa (an Ecuadorean endorsed by Antigua and Barbuda) got three encourage; Olara Otunnu of Uganda drew three encourage; and Ivonne A-Baki (an Ecuadorean backed by Tonga) got zero encourage.