‘He’s Not Making Sense’: How Trump Has Alienated Voters for the G.O.P.
Signs are emerging that dispirited Republican voters may stay home in November, bringing a Democratic surge without many conversions.
If Democrats make big gains in the midterm elections in four weeks, it may not only be because their most loyal voters come out in force, or because their candidates have converted Republican voters to their cause.
Instead, the Democrats’ dream blue wave could come from Republicans who sour on President Trump and stay home. It already has a name: the red undertow.
Across the country, signs are emerging of an enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans, even among those who consider themselves likely to vote. A stretch of rural southwest Michigan — long a Republican stronghold — illustrates the point, with more signs for blueberries and eggs than for political candidates. Volunteers are not showing up to door-knock. And many voters say they are tuning this election out.
“People are tired,” Al Pscholka, a Republican and a former member of the Michigan House of Representatives, said of Mr. Trump. “The whole divider-in-chief thing, it’s gotten to the point where it’s just exhausting.”
New York Times
Red undertow was popularized by Charlie Cook, who is on to something.
Barring a surprise elsewhere, I think Rs only have a real shot in two Harris-won seats: Toss-up Lawler (R, NY-17) and Leans R Fitzpatrick (R, PA-1)
lowest number of “crossover” districts won this century has been 3 (including in the last election). History: pic.twitter.com/drnPq6YZ41
— Kyle Kondik (@kkondik) October 8, 2026
Trump voters are not pumped about voting in the midterms, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds
Summary
48% of 2024 Harris voters are very enthusiastic about voting, versus 30% of Trump voters
Harris backers were likelier to say they are almost certain to vote, 76% versus 63%
Men back Democrats over Republicans 43% to 39% in hypothetical congressional races
A new Pew Research Center poll shows Trump’s approval rating dropping to *30%.*
That’s the first quality poll this term to show him dropping that low.
(Previous low was 31% in a recent AP-NORC poll.) pic.twitter.com/8kaBkEPvGv
— Aaron Blake (@AaronBlake) October 8, 2026
Young men who carried Trump to victory are mad. Vance is trying to win them back.
Convincing young men to show up for Republicans in November won’t be easy, and even administration allies are skeptical Vice President JD Vance can stanch the bleeding
Of all the voters the GOP needs to coax to the polls in November, young men are among the most crucial.
They swung sharply toward President Donald Trump in 2024, but like other parts of the president’s coalition, some have since grown frustrated over the war and the cost of living.
But the Trump administration and its allies also see them as among the most persuadable — a group whose political and cultural instincts remain broadly aligned with MAGA.
Enter JD Vance…
Convincing this cohort won’t be easy, and even administration allies are skeptical Vance can stanch the bleeding. They fear that young men may be a lost cause in 2026 — their anger with the Iran war a proxy for overall frustrations that the country has long focused too much on foreign policy and not enough on improving their lives at home.
With Moskowitz (D, FL-25) going to Leans D, our best guess at GOP net gains from redistricting is now just 2-5 seats, with the range b/c of Toss-up Dems Castor (FL-14), Davis (NC-1), and Kaptur (OH-9).
— Kyle Kondik (@kkondik) October 8, 2026
GOP is at risk of significant state legislative losses, Post analysis finds
Democrats have a rare chance to boost their state presences after years of Republican gains.
Most national attention in this year’s midterm elections is focused on congressional and governors’ races.
But Democrats are also making a strong push to win power in state legislatures across the country, forcing Republicans to play defense in a terrain they have dominated in recent years.
Democrats are on offense. They could break up full Republican control in as many as six states and win unified control in as many as seven of their own, a Washington Post analysis found.
Republicans are on their heels, with the chance to disrupt full Democratic control in only two states and pick up full control in as many as five states.
Dems’ One Big Midterm Weakness Isn’t Looking So Bad Anymore
Record hauls are easing the party’s cash crunch, even as fundraisers warn against declaring victory.
AS THEY WATCHED their midterm standing worsen in recent months, Republicans soothed their anxiety by noting the massive cash advantage they enjoyed over Democrats.
That may be changing.
Various Democratic operatives and fundraisers have told me that the party’s financial standing has improved dramatically over the past few weeks as Democrats’ prospects of winning have brightened. House Majority PAC, the top Democratic super PAC charged with winning back the lower chamber, and its affiliated organizations raised $230 million in the third quarter of 2026—their best quarter ever. Senate Majority PAC and its affiliated organizations announced that they also had the best third quarter in their history, raking in $202 million.
Campaign officials working on some of the most competitive Senate races this cycle told me that their candidates are on track to set new third-quarter fundraising records (we’ll get a clearer picture of those numbers next week: FEC reports are due on October 15). Other officials at Democratic-aligned groups told me that they’ve already raised record amounts. One such group, 314 Action, a political action committee that supports candidates with scientific backgrounds, has raised $25 million this cycle.
We’re all tired of the chaos and corruption in Washington.
If you’re a Kansas Republican ready to fix our broken politics, I’d be honored to have your vote. pic.twitter.com/4JuKcDgohf
— Adam Hamilton (@Hamilton4Kansas) October 7, 2026
Democrats spy a red-state opening. There may not be enough cash for it.
As the Senate map pushes into deep-red states, Democrats worry their money won’t reach far enough to make some of them legitimate battlegrounds.
Democrats’ eyes may be bigger than their wallets.
Democrats across a slate of deep-red states are clamoring for more cash to fight for Senate seats that suddenly seem within reach, with polling showing them competitive across a swath of normally impregnable territory from Kansas to Florida and South Carolina to Mississippi prompting a sudden bump in late-stage spending from outside groups. The party’s main campaign groups have already begun spending in Texas, another state they once downplayed that’s come seriously into play.
Maybe in a change election, it’s not about the money. it’s about candidate quality (see South Carolina and Kansas and Texas and…)
Jonathan Tamari/Bloomberg:
Why Pennsylvania Will Serve as an Early Election Day Bellwether
The country’s biggest swing state could reveal much about the midterms.
President Donald Trump is on a steep decline in Pennsylvania, according to new polling, while Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro is climbing ahead of a nearly-certain White House run in 2028.
Their trajectories could ripple far beyond their own political fortunes. Pennsylvania hosts four critical House races this year — enough to give Democrats a majority — and Trump’s struggles (combined with Shapiro’s surging reelection run) are making it even harder for Republicans to hang on.
“The path to flipping all four competitive seats in Pennsylvania is growing stronger by the day,” argued Eli Cousin, a spokesman for Democrats’ House campaign arm.
Here’s your lightning round:
BREAKING: President Trump says the White House considers anyone who uses the term “Artificial Intelligence” the enemy. pic.twitter.com/wX9Ln9fcQW
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 8, 2026
Reminds me of:
And there were debates. The Maine debate was fascinating:
At the first break in the 2nd Collins-Jackson debate, 40 minutes in, the price of heating oil has been the dominant issue and the one they consistently come back to.
— Alex Seitz-Wald (@aseitzwald) October 9, 2026
Troy Jackson and Susan Collins debating is fascinating.
Collins is much better at articulating specific policy positions, but Jackson keeps delivering very punchy one-liners. It’s a fun dynamic. https://t.co/SPF7OYosEb
— Ellis Bates (@ElliscbIV) October 9, 2026
And there was Georgia:
And Michigan:
Tonight Mike Rogers got a question about Medicaid cuts and turned it into an answer about the Muslim Brotherhood
Kinda captures the whole debate — and really the whole campaign — right there pic.twitter.com/NfXWznaOTv
— Jonathan Cohn (@CitizenCohn) October 9, 2026
Overall:
Added, 2 late breaking polls:
58% of Maine voters say the Collins has supported President Trump “too much,” a tough number for her and a majority (51%) give her an unfavorable rating. Among independents, 52% say Collins is “too conservative. 52% say her “30 year tenure in the senate” is mostly a bad thing. Not a good cycle for career politicians. Trump gets a 63% negative job rating in the state.
John Anzalone
👀 NEW Siena poll in NY-21 (Retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik’s district):
Blake Gendebien (D) 46%
Anthony Constantino (R) 42%
Undecided 8%
Sponsored by local news outlets NBC5 (WPTZ), Times-Union & WAMC, conducted by Siena from Sept 30-Oct 6 among 496 Likely Voters, MOE +/- 4.6%.
— Nathaniel Reed (@ReedReports) October 9, 2026
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