GOP Representative Elise Stefanik’s seat in the House of Representatives is at risk of flipping to Democrats as she exits Congress, despite the district voting for President Donald Trump by about 20 points in the 2024 presidential election, according to two new polls showing a tight race.
Stefanik is not seeking reelection in New York’s 21st Congressional District, based around the rural North Country region. The race to succeed her between Republican Anthony Constantino and Democrat Blake Gendebien has become more competitive ahead of the November 3 midterms for a seat that forecasters say favors Republicans.
Gendebien held a 4-point lead in a new Siena University poll conducted from September 30 to October 6. Forty-six percent of respondents said they would vote for the Democratic candidate, while Constantino’s support stood at 42 percent in the poll of 496 respondents.
Read More on Politics
Harvey Schantz, a professor of political science at the State University of New York, Plattsburgh, told Newsweek that this is a “Republican leaning district,” but that without an incumbent, it is “susceptible to the impact of the national tide.”
“At this point, if the polls are to be believed, the outcome of the election is uncertain, meaning that Gendebien has a path to victory,” he said. “Gendebien’s chances are tied to both district and national factors. The candidate has to get his supporters to turnout and avoid campaign mistakes, while at the same time hoping that the national trend turns against the Republicans.”
That poll also had independent Christopher Schmidt, a write-in candidate, with 5 percent support. It carried an overall margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
And an internal poll released by the Gendebien campaign shows Constantino with a narrow 3-point lead.
That Impact Research poll of 500 likely voters from September 29 to October 4 showed Constantino with 48 percent and Gendebien with 45 percent support. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points and was first reported by The Watertown Daily Times.
Trump easily won the district by just over 20 points in the 2024 election and Stefanik won by more than 24 points. The district was thought to be a significant uphill climb for Democrats in 2026.
Stefanik flipped the seat from Democrats in 2014 and has easily won reelection campaigns. The seat was more competitive in the 2000s and early 2010s but has steadily drifted rightward over the past decade.
What Campaigns Are Saying
Alex DeGrasse, senior adviser to the Constantino Campaign, pushed back on the Siena poll in a statement to Newsweek, writing that it “included a write-in, conservative candidate, but did not include a far-left write-in candidate, intentionally skewering results for on-ballot Democrats.”
“They show Blakeman underperforming by minimum 5 points compared to independent polling, and internal polling from both Gendebien and Constantino. If these numbers were accurate, national Democrats would spending here, but they are not. Gendebien has said publicly, his campaign is close to broke,” DeGrasse wrote.
Gendebien wrote in a statement on Friday that he is “running to lower costs, protect rural healthcare, and clean up Washington,” while he said Constantino is “running a reality show.”
“Republicans, independents, and Democrats are coming along because they’re tired of the circus,” he wrote.
Independents Boost Gendebien as Democrats Eye Race
Gendebien’s narrow lead was boosted by independents in the Siena poll.
He led in the critical voting bloc by 21 points, 51 percent to 30 percent. He also received a majority of backing from Democrats, 85 percent to 10 percent, and chipped away at Republican voters Republicans, winning 21 percent of them to Constantino’s 65 percent, according to the poll.
The Democratic candidate had a stronger favorability rating in the poll, with 46 percent of respondents saying they view him positively and 29 percent viewing him negatively. Meanwhile, 52 percent of respondents said they view Constantino unfavorably, compared to 39 percent who view him favorably.
The poll comes just days after the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) announced they are adding the seat to their “Red to Blue” program, a sign that it views the seat as a possible flip in November.
DCCC Chair Representative Suzan DelBene wrote in a statement that Gendebien “has spent his life serving the North Country as a small business owner and community leader, and he’s exactly the kind of independent, pragmatic voice NY-21 families deserve in Congress.”
Forecasters still expect Constantino to have an advantage.
Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as Likely Republican, meaning it’s seen as being potentially competitive, but the GOP is still favored to hold onto the seat.
Some recent polling has delivered troubling signs to Democrats about New York, which saw the greatest rightward shift in 2024, ahead of the midterms.
Democrats led Republicans on the generic congressional ballot by only 13 points, 55 percent to 42 percent, in a new Marist University poll of 1,361 New York registered voters released this week. It was conducted from October 1 to 4 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
What Earlier Polls Show
Earlier independent polling provided mixed signals on whether the race will become competitive.
A J.L. Partners poll from August 15 to 17 showed Constantino up by a more robust 13 points, 53 percent to 40 percent, among 500 likely voters. First reported by The New York Post, the poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
But a SurveyUSA poll from August 4 to 8 gave Gendebien an edge, 43 percent to 39 percent among 612 likely voters.
A district that backed Trump by 20 points is seen as a heavy lift for Democrats, but they hope to expand the electoral battleground as Trump’s nationwide approval rating has fallen.
Although the district has become more conservative, it does have a history of voting for Democrats. Former President Barack Obama carried NY-21 in both of his presidential bids, and Democratic Congressman Bill Owens represented it until 2015.
Prediction Markets Favor Constantino
Constantino is also up in prediction markets. The Republican candidate had a 72 percent chance on Kalshi and a 71 percent chance on Polymarket as of Friday. That does mark a slight shift compared to one week earlier, when he had an 83 percent chance on Kalshi and an 84 percent chance on Polymarket.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates.
Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
What Happens Next
Polls will be closely watched in New York’s 21st District and other potentially competitive races ahead of the 2026 midterms. It’s not viewed as a must-win or even a top priority for Democrats, but the district could be a test of how far the so-called “blue wave” may reach.
Early voting in New York will take place from October 24 through November 1, according to the New York State Board of Elections.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Geoffrey Rowland.