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A new Politico poll found that most Americans would not be more likely to vote Republican even if President Donald Trump ended the Iran war or cut gas prices by $1 a gallon before November.
The survey of 2,001 U.S. adults, conducted online Oct. 3-5 by independent firm PF Global, found 29% would be more likely to back Republicans if gas fell by $1. Just 28% said the same about an end to the war with Iran, which the U.S. and Israel launched in February, while a third said ending it would have no real impact and 20% said it would make them less likely to vote Republican.
Politico reported an overall margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points, with wider margins for smaller groups, but did not detail how results were weighted.
The voters Republicans most need barely budged.
A $1 drop in gas prices would make 10% of Democratic midterm voters and 10% of undecided voters more likely to vote Republican, and an announced end to the war would move 10% and 9%, respectively.
Most undecided voters, 57% on gas and 55% on the war, said they did not know how either development would affect their vote.
Many respondents also doubted Trump could deliver. Just over a quarter said he could cut gas prices by $1 a gallon by Election Day, and 27% each said he could end the war or significantly lower grocery prices. Among Trump’s own 2024 voters, fewer than half (43%) said he could pull off the gas cut.
Those doubts reflect real-world obstacles, Politico noted. In a Thursday post cited by Reuters, Trump said the U.S. would not attack Iran before the Nov. 3 midterms, citing “productive discussions” with Tehran, though the wire service noted he has not laid out a detailed plan for exiting the war.
Energy experts have warned gas prices would take months to return to prewar levels even if fighting stopped, Politico reported.
“Trump is saying himself that the war with Iran won’t end before the elections,” Republican strategist Doug Heye told Politico.
Mike Noble, founder of the Arizona-based polling firm Noble Predictive Insights, said: “I think a lot of the die is already cast.”
“The ship has sailed on any external event changing the dynamics of the election,” one GOP operative working on competitive races told Politico on condition of anonymity.
White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said in a statement to Politico that “President Trump is the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party.”
A Republican Party spokesperson accused Politico of “cherry-picking data” and faulted the survey for asking Democrats about voting Republican, though every respondent got the same questions.
The poll also found more Americans expect Democrats than Republicans to win control of both the House and Senate in November, partly because more say they will vote Democratic.
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