With three weeks to go until Election Day, the Senate battlefield is getting bigger. MS NOW is moving Kansas to “lean Republican” and Minnesota to “lean Democratic,” pulling two seats that once looked more secure into competitive territory.
Kansas
Kansas joined our list of races to watch last month, when we categorized it as “likely Republican.” While we still give the GOP the edge in defending this seat, several factors have moved it into a more competitive category: lean Republican.
For one, polling continues to show Democrat Adam Hamilton neck and neck with incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall. As we explained a few weeks ago, the national environment looks bleak enough for the GOP that even a state as red as Kansas could be decided by single digits this year. Hamilton, a well-known United Methodist pastor, appears to be a strong nominee, while Marshall has been fending off questions about his past medical billing practices and, as MS NOW recently reported, his campaign finances. Even so, it is striking that polls have shown Hamilton tied or even slightly ahead of Marshall in a state Trump won by 16 points.
The polls do warrant some caution, however. Voters who backed Trump in 2024 are more likely to be undecided than those who supported Kamala Harris — a pattern visible in recent New York Times/Siena and YouGov polls. If those undecided voters ultimately break toward Marshall, in line with their past votes, he has room to gain a few points.
The polls also show a fair amount of ticket-splitting, with Republican gubernatorial candidate Ty Masterson running ahead of Marshall. But the bigger question is how many voters will actually back a Republican for governor and Democrat for Senate in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator in nearly a century. And while midterm polling has been fairly accurate on average in recent cycles, polls in individual states often miss by several points. It is not hard to imagine that pollsters are once again struggling to reach reliably Republican voters.
Voter registration trends offer Democrats another somewhat encouraging sign. Statewide, registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats, 45% to 26%. But recent months have suggested some energy on the Democratic side: Democrats outpaced Republicans in new registrations by a 2-to-1 margin in August and September, according to the Kansas Secretary of State’s office. While the new registrants are just a drop in the bucket compared to Republicans’ overall advantage, it is a markedly different pattern than in 2022, when Republicans outpaced Democrats during the same period. Kansas also has a sizable pool of unaffiliated voters, who are likely to play a big role in determining the final margin. Polls suggest they favor Hamilton.
Finally, Republicans and their affiliated groups are acting like Kansas is truly competitive. Vice President JD Vance visited the state last month to rally support, and the Senate Leadership Fund PAC started spending big on this race in late September. It now has more than $10 million in ad time reserved, according to AdImpact. That may reflect an abundance of caution, since wave elections often bring surprise upsets that benefit the party out of power. Either way, it is remarkable that Republicans feel the need to shore up support in a seat like this one at all.
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Kabir Khanna, Ph.D., is Director of Elections & Analytics at MS NOW. He oversees elections and public opinion coverage, guiding the newsroom on interpreting data and accurately reporting on it across platforms.
Gabe Borelli is data analytics manager on MS NOW’s Elections team. His expertise is grounded in public opinion and political science research. In his role, he analyzes survey and demographic data to identify polling trends, explain voting patterns, and provide context for elections and political coverage across MS NOW’s broadcast and digital platforms.
Shawna Thomas is the MS NOW political director. Previously, she was the executive producer of “CBS Mornings,” managed VICE News’ Washington bureau and was the senior producer of “Meet the Press.”
Hunter Woodall covers politics for MS NOW. He’s reported on politics and presidential campaigns for The Associated Press and CBS News and reported on Congress for The Minnesota Star Tribune.