Developments in the government and opposition camps

The parties forming the governing coalition centered on Netanyahu’s Likud appear likely to enter the election with largely the same personnel and political messaging. Following Likud’s internal primaries, the candidate list shaped by Netanyahu was submitted to the election authorities. The coalition’s ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ), are also expected to contest the election with their existing leadership and parliamentary teams. The only significant change within the coalition is that Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) and the Religious Zionist Party, which ran together on a single list in the previous election, will contest this election separately.

Despite Netanyahu’s insistence that the two parties should once again form an alliance in order to prevent the right-wing vote from being divided, Jewish Power leader Itamar Ben-Gvir rejected the request and announced that his party would run independently. Having lost hope of reaching an agreement with Ben-Gvir, Religious Zionist Party leader Bezalel Smotrich decided to form an alliance with Zehut, the party founded by former Likud lawmaker Moshe Feiglin, after polls indicated that the Religious Zionist Party would fail to cross the electoral threshold if it ran alone.

The main movement ahead of the election, however, has taken place within the opposition camp.

The first major development was the announcement by former minister and prime minister Naftali Bennett that he would return to active politics after previously declaring that he had ended his political career. Bennett first established the Bennett 2026 party and then announced that he would enter the election in alliance with Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party under the name Beyahad (Together).

The experience Bennett and Lapid gained from their previous coalition government appears to have given them a significant level of public support, and they quickly reached Netanyahu’s level in opinion polls.

The Bennett momentum, however, began to fade when former military chief of staff and Blue and White lawmaker Gadi Eisenkot resigned from his party and established the Yashar (Straight/Justice) Party. Eisenkot’s background as a former military officer, the absence of corruption allegations against him, and his more centrist political positioning compared with Bennett helped him gain public support, and he soon moved ahead of Netanyahu in opinion polls.

Another important opposition figure is Yisrael Beiteinu, led by Avigdor Lieberman and traditionally supported largely by Jews who immigrated from Russia. Lieberman previously formed alliances with Netanyahu but positioned his party against him from 2018 onward. In the most recent elections, Yisrael Beiteinu joined the anti-Netanyahu bloc and supported the change government. The party, which will also contest this election independently, has announced that it will support Eisenkot for prime minister.

On the left side of the opposition is the Democrats Party led by Yair Golan, formed through the merger of the Labor Party and Meretz. Seeking to prevent further erosion of Israel’s left-wing vote, Golan has positioned his party against Netanyahu and announced that it would support a potential Eisenkot government.

The most controversial group within the opposition camp has been the Arab parties. The Ra’am, Hadash, Ta’al and Balad parties previously ran together under the Joint List and won 13 seats. It had been estimated that if they united again in this election, they could win at least 15 seats. In this context, Hadash and Ta’al reached an agreement and sought to persuade Ra’am to join their alliance.

Meanwhile, Ra’am, led by Mansour Abbas, recruited Yoaz Segalovitz, a lawmaker from Yesh Atid, signaling that it intended to appeal not only to Arab voters but also to Jewish voters.

However, the Central Elections Committee’s announcement on September 24 that the Joint List and Ra’am, as well as Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh and Hadash lawmaker Ofer Cassif, had been barred from participating in the election changed the entire electoral dynamic.

At a time when neither the Netanyahu bloc nor the Eisenkot-led opposition bloc was expected to reach the 61 seats required to form a government in the 120-seat Knesset, Arab parties were widely expected to determine the outcome. The Central Elections Committee’s decision therefore required the various calculations surrounding government formation to be reconsidered from scratch.

Nevertheless, Arab parties are expected to appeal the committee’s disqualification decisions to the Supreme Court, while the court is also expected to overturn some of the bans, with possible exceptions involving certain individuals.

Even so, it is argued that such restrictive decisions targeting Arab parties could benefit Netanyahu. If Arab voters stay away from the polls in protest, Netanyahu could gain an advantage. In previous elections, there have also been instances in which measures were allegedly taken to discourage Arab voters from participating or prevent them from freely exercising their right to vote, with Netanyahu benefiting from the resulting circumstances.