Rep. John McGuire drew national attention when he unseated two-term 5th Congressional District Rep. Bob Good in the August 2024 Republican primary.

Now, McGuire faces former Democratic Congressman Tom Perriello, as well as an independent candidate, Cooke Harvey. 

The 5th District has historically been a Republican stronghold, but one that Perriello has represented in the past. It comprises more than 20 mostly rural counties, but includes small cities like Charlottesville, Lynchburg and Danville. The district’s constituency also includes many college students. 

There’s little doubt about McGuire’s allegiance to President Donald Trump.

“McGuire is probably one of the most pro-Trump Republican congressmen in the country, and that’s saying something,” said Rich Meagher, politics professor at Randolph-Macon College and host of VPM podcast RVA’s Got Issues.

“I wrote a letter to President Trump last week asking them to have a state of emergency on refinery-permitting to go from five years to five days,” McGuire said at a media event in Lynchburg in early October. 

McGuire blamed high fuel costs on regulations that slow capacity. “Let’s get some refineries open, and if we get the fuel costs down, what that will do is that’ll bring our products at Food Lion and help families.”

McGuire also criticized the cap-and-trade system that are aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and encouraging more environmentally friendly alternatives. 

“What these cap-and-trade policies at the federal level and at the state level do is they punish you for using gas or diesel because they want to have solar, wind and green policies.”

Meagher said the wide gamut of voters make the 5th District an interesting one to watch. “It is a big mix, and I think that’s one of the reasons why it’s become a district that’s more in play than I think a lot of folks thought,” Meagher said. 

“There’s this potential to activate a bunch of Democratic voters in the city, particularly these college students [in Charlottesville, Lynchburg and Farmville].” 

At a separate event, a public forum held by the Albemarle-Charlottesville branch of the NAACP in early October, Perriello said he’s running in contrast to McGuire, who said he did not attend the forum due to scheduling restrictions. 

“I have heard from voters a very clear message: they want to fire John McGuire because they want to get costs down, they want to get paychecks up, and they want to get corruption out,” said Perriello.

He disagreed with McGuire’s assessment of what’s causing high gas and diesel prices. Perriello pointed to the war in Iran as the cause. 

“We need to reduce those costs by ending this war that never should have been started in the first place, and ending these tariff authorities that the president is using to enrich himself while making the rest of us poor,” said Perriello.

He also drew attention to his prior experience representing the 5th District from 2009 to 2011.

At the forum, Cooke Harvey, the race’s independent candidate, said he’s running to “provide a choice for people like me who feel like there isn’t a choice on the ballot anymore.”

“This vote, if you vote for an independent or any third party candidate, you’re sending a message to say the status quo for the past 30 years cannot be anymore,” said Harvey.

Both Harvey and Perriello agreed that this election should be focused on the war in Iran, and concerns about artificial intelligence. Harvey also emphasized that it was time to balance the national budget.

The apprehension about the Iran war is a change for Harvey, who initially said he said he was behind the war, but changed his mind as it has continued. 

“You rally when you need to rally to support and to be secure in yourself and your property and then when you realize that the evidence is not there, we need to take to the streets and hold people accountable,” said Harvey.

For Meagher, the race could be a bellwether for the midterms.

“If this becomes a Democratic flip, that does suggest a disaster for the Republicans,” he said. 

Read more 2026 coverage from the Virginia Elections Collaborative.