With UFC Fight Night scheduled for Saturday night at Rogers Place, the series will start in Edmonton on Thursday before sending the Oilers out for a one-game road trip to Utah for the rematch. Even without UFC, the trip’s logistics don’t make much sense. The Mammoth played at home to Toronto earlier this week, and the Oilers flew past Utah on the way home from Los Angeles. Nonetheless, the Oilers will probably get a couple of nights of sleep in their own beds after the first extended road trip of the season.
The Oilers went 2-0-1 and outscored Utah 16-11 across their three regular season meetings last season. The Mammoth are off to a hot start this season, leading a stacked Central Division at the time of writing. Fans can look forward to some high-quality, exciting hockey to end their week and start their weekend.Who comes out of the lineup if Zach Hyman returns?Oilers fans got some promising news earlier this week, with Zach Hyman’s return seeming imminent. He wasn’t ready after morning skate in LA, but Oilers coach Mike Babcock said he’s day-to-day, which has fans hoping to see Hyman in the two games vs. Utah.Hyman’s return to the lineup will spark some changes for the Oilers, forcing someone who was part of the current five-game win streak to the press box. Many think that Isaac Howard will come out of the lineup and potentially head down to Bakersfield if Hyman returns. Howard’s speed has been noticeable, and he has put up a couple of assists in the six games so far this season. While he’s done enough to stay in the lineup on many NHL teams this season, the Oilers’ depth may force him to Bakersfield for some further reps for now.
Other options to sit are Josh Samanski or Trent Frederic. Both saw limited minutes against the Kings, and Samanski also saw only six minutes against the Sharks on Sunday. Both have been serviceable players for the Oilers, but Hyman is a definite upgrade.
Hyman’s insertion into the lineup will shake up at least a couple of lines as he will see time in the top six. With how they’ve been rolling to start the year, it’s hard to see the Oilers breaking up the top line, meaning Hyman likely will slide in alongside Jason Dicksinson and Kasperi Kapanen on the second line. This probably means Filip Hallander will move down, either alongside Owen Michaels and Alex Formenton or to the fourth line. The Michaels line held up well on the California trip, but adding Hallander to the wing with Alex Formenton and Michaels adds a bit more skill to the third line. Assuming Isaac Howard is indeed the casualty of the Hyman return, Mathieu Joseph’s domino would slide down to the fourth line, adding some grit and physicality.
Who will the Mammoth match up against the Oilers’ sizzling top line?The Oilers’ top line is on a tear. Night after night, they have driven the play, accounted for the lion’s share of the offence, and are the main reason for the team’s excellent start to the season. Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Vasily Podkolzin provide a matchup nightmare for any team, and it will be interesting to see who Utah elects to give the assignment to.
The Mammoth’s top defensive line has been Anders Lee, Barret Hayton, and Kailer Yamamoto over the past few games, posting the lowest expected goals per hour, shot attempts against per 60 minutes, and best expected goal share of any of their lines. Look for Utah to try and match this unit up with the Oilers’ top unit whenever possible. This will be much more challenging in the first game of the home-and-home, with the Oilers controlling the last change. The Mammoth’s top-six is made to score and likely doesn’t match up well against the Oilers’ big guns, so the Oilers may try to exploit that with their own matchups. Saturday’s game will provide a much better opportunity for more favourable matchups for the Mammoth, although, with the run that McDavid, Draisaitl and Podkolzin have been on, it might not matter much who is on the ice against them. If Utah struggles to contain this unit, they may move back to a combination used earlier in the season of Hayton, Lawson Crouse, and Jack McBain, going for a complete shutdown unit. Again, this might not make a world of difference.
The Mammoth deploy their forward lines much more evenly than the Oilers. How will this affect matchups in the home vs. away game?
Utah has to be happy with their forward depth to start the season, with all 13 forwards who have been in the lineup having multiple points. Their ice time dispersion reflects this. In their most recent matchup against the Toronto Maple Leafs, all their forwards hit double digits in ice time, and no one eclipsed 20 minutes played. Utah did have a lead for the majority of the game, which makes spreading ice time easier, but still, talk about rolling the lines over. This approach keeps their top players fresh and makes matchups difficult for the opposition. Whether or not they try to play the matchup game with the Oilers’ top unit, the remainder of the lineup is likely to see multiple combinations of players throughout both games. Not being stuck to specific matchups also makes the Mammoth a formidable road opponent.
Will the Oilers be able to cool off Utah’s red-hot power play?
The Mammoth currently are second in the NHL on the power play, running at a 34.5% conversion rate. Their top unit of Nick Schmaltz, Logan Cooley, Clayton Keller, Dylan Guenther, and Mikhail Sergachev are all weapons. Guenther and Cooley have lethal shots, while Keller and Schmaltz possess speed and playmaking ability. Sergachev provides another option for a shot and anchors the point. The Oilers’ penalty kill has been better over the last few games, erasing the last five penalties against Anaheim, killing off the only opportunity against San Jose, and finishing perfect on four tries against the Kings. Utah’s unit will provide their new system with an excellent test. Minimizing time shorthanded will be key for the Oilers and, when they do go down a man, their pressure and tenacity will need to outlast the skill and playmaking ability that the Mammoth have. Strong goaltending has also made a difference in the more recent PK success, but the Mammoth can put the puck past any goaltender, regardless of how well they’re playing.
Can the Oilers take advantage of a weak third defence pair for the Mammoth?
While the Mammoth earn praise for how they disperse their ice time amongst forwards, the defence is a different story. The third pairing of Andrew Peeke and Dmitri Simashev haven’t earned coach Andre Tourigny’s trust in the same way that their bottom-six forwards have and average below 15 minutes per game. Especially in the first game of the two-game set, the Oilers will have an opportunity to match up top players or get an edge for one of the other lines when Peeke and Simashev are on the ice. With the extra ice that the top two pairs see for the Mammoth and multiple games in short order, the Oilers will have an opportunity to wear them down with some physicality and shifts spent defending. It’s still early in the season, so players shouldn’t feel the effects quite as much as if these games were played in April. However, not passing up hits, cycling, and forcing the Mammoth to defend will be keys to victory for the Oilers.
The Oilers are guilty of top-heavy ice time for their defencemen as well, to an even larger extent than the Mammoth, so the same opportunity to exploit a weaker bottom pairing exists for Utah. As has been the case with the forward lines for the Oilers, the top-end defencemen have done more than enough to offset any shortcomings from the bottom pair. The Oilers will definitely look to spread the ice time out a bit more as players settle into their roles for the season, particularly in the first matchup as they control last change. We may see larger minutes for the top two pairs on Saturday to ensure an ideal pairing is out to try and smother Utah’s offensive stars.
PRESENTED BY jetSet
Get the convenience of on-airport parking at off-airport prices with jetSet Parking. Choose selfPark for easy, affordable parking or valetPark for added convenience. Park close to the terminal, book ahead and take one more thing off your travel checklist.
Visit jetsetparking.com/yeg and use promo code “NATION” for 20% off, book by November 16th for travel by December 15th.