NOAA produced the forecast for December through February. They have based most of the forecast on the very strong El Niño currently in progress and expected to continue through winter.
It’s a pretty short and interesting winter forecast for Michigan. It’s clearly a warmer-than-normal and drier-than-normal winter forecast for Michigan.
Temperature forecast for December through FebruaryNOAA
The forecast above gives all of Michigan a 50 percent to 60 percent chance of warmer than normal temperatures. There are three categories of temperature deviation- above normal, below normal and “equal chances.” An equal chances forecast doesn’t really give you any useable forecast, but it would break down to a 33 percent chance of above, below and near normal temperatures. If we get a 60 percent chance of warmer than normal temperatures, it takes 27 percent of the chance of colder than normal temperatures. So you might like, or not like, the other perspective that there is only a six percent chance it will be colder than normal.
The winter “warmth” is based on what typically has happened in a strong to very strong El Niño, but note there have only been four strong El Niños since 1950.
But it seems very reasonable that the warm water just southwest of the U.S. will spew mild air into the western U.S. and then to the Great Lakes.
Realistically this means the southern half of Lower Michigan could have many days cracking the freezing mark this winter.
The active storm track is expected to run along the southern U.S. and up the eastern seaboard. Michigan is placed in a slight chance it will be drier than normal.
Precipitation forecast for December through FebruaryNOAA
If the long-term forecast verifies, it will be what we Michiganders consider an “easy winter” or a “light winter.” For winter-lovers, there will still be winter, just not as much as we normally expect.
Stay updated with winter storms heading toward Michigan at MLive.com/weather.