I really wasn’t surprised by Trumps recent move to limit Starshield (military version of Starlink) nor his move to buy Russian diesel. I’m only surprised it took this long for him to do it. The Marco Rubio faction of the administration have had more sway than I figured keeping the US on the side of Ukraine over the past two years. And enough of the career military and intelligence staff have probably had enough pull to delay this day. But the day has arrived so let’s break it down.
First, the diesel deal. As many have already pointed out, the amount of diesel is not enough to affect global or US prices particularly in time for the election. So this aspect is not worth talking about more.
The more troubling part which I have heard less about is the possibility that Russia will be allowed to purchase oil equipment from US companies. While it won’t stop the damage Ukraine is doing to Russian oil production, it will mean Ukraine’s efforts will be diluted making its goals take longer to reach. This will cost lives and gives Russia time to find counters (either direct counters to the anti-fuel campaign or a different means to attack Ukraine). This purchase of oil equipment will also sadly fly mostly under the radar unless a news organization dedicates time to seeing if it is happening. So I don’t expect to hear more about it unless Ukraine itself devotes resources to getting the word out if US companies supply more oil infrastructure to Russia.
Trump’s goal is not so much the reduction in oil price but the ability to blame someone else for oil prices. It’s not clear to me how effective that will be. Those who pay attention will know it to be a lie. Those who would fall for this excuse will just as easily fall for some other excuse. So it’s a lot of pain and suffering for Ukraine just so Trump can make an excuse. But we all knew this man was demented.
The throttling of Starshield to force Ukraine to stop attacking Russian oil infrastructure is nasty yet expected. That it most effects defensive measures for Ukraine is particularly heinous. But this is also something Ukraine has been preparing for. They’ve been stabbed by Musk cutting out Starlink before and they’ve been stabbed by the US now multiple times. They were still using it, so it is not nothing to Ukraine (clear from the need for it for anti-missile defense) but it is also something that is not actually a complete surprise. Perhaps the immediate timing and the manner it was done, but Ukraine knew full well it was always a possibility. So the biggest impact will be in the short term as they are forced to make the switch to other means sooner than they preferred. But lives will be lost due to the callousness of Trump.
I think the biggest impact of the sum total of this will be in recalibrating Ukraine’s risk calculations with regards to taking certain actions. The long term impact of Russia getting needed repair supplies for their oil infrastructure may push Ukraine to take more short and medium term risks to end the war sooner. In particular is the risk calculus with regards to launching a new offensive. As we saw from 2023, launching a major offensive comes with massive risks. Ukraine will not engage in one unless they feel it is worth that risk. Russia having a better long term prognosis would push them towards taking that risk to end the war before Russia’s oil infrastructure could be repaired and protected. And even if the repairs only slow the damage, that means damage done to Ukraine. So if it means 3 more years of war, instead of 1 more year of war, it increases the likelihood of Ukraine attempting something to end the war sooner.
And on that score, the recent Lyman minor offensive shows us the progress Ukraine has been making in returning vehicles and maneuver to the battlefield. If local drone supremacy can be achieved in a given section of the battlefield, and that includes shutting down enemy drones by whatever means, then a breakthrough could be created and exploited. I’ve written before that I think that big target now includes Crimea but I won’t go into the details of why. Just know that somewhere out in the internet 22Trucks is screaming at me and would list out all the good reasons I’m probably wrong. And I would agree with him if this was 10 years ago, or even 2 years ago. But if Ukraine has figured out how to suppress Russian drones in a sufficiently large area of operations, there also exists now a means for Ukraine to invade Crimea at a much lower risk to them than a conventional amphibious operation would entail. As I won’t go into details on that, I concede victory to anyone in the comments calling me crazy for suggesting it. (And 22Trucks is (probably) correct as well out on Bluesky).
But to come back to Starshield; This was anticipated by Ukraine and prepared for the best they could in the time allotted. The rest of Europe is also clear on US reliability and seems to be acting accordingly. It is a tragedy and heinous betrayal, but also expected by anyone who has assessed Trump with a clear vision. It will hurt Ukraine but not mortally so. They will overcome this as they have so much else and will eventually prevail. I hope and pray for it to be soon. But victory will come to Ukraine some day.
Slava Ukraini
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