WASHINGTON (TNND) — Israelis are preparing to vote in a high-stakes parliamentary election on October 27 that could determine whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains in power — and influence the country’s approach to the United States, Iran and regional security.
President Donald Trump endorsed Netanyahu on October 18, just nine days before the election, calling the Israeli leader a strong partner in confronting Iran. Trump also warned that if Netanyahu were replaced, the United States could be left to confront Iran without the same level of Israeli leadership.
But the endorsement comes as Netanyahu faces a difficult political contest in light of the Israel-Hamas war. Recent polling has suggested that his governing coalition could fall short of the 61 seats needed to command a majority in Israel’s 120-member parliament, known as the Knesset. The opposition, meanwhile, also faces challenges in assembling a governing majority.
How Israel’s election works
Unlike the U.S., Israel doesn’t directly elect its prime minister. Voters cast ballots for political parties, which receive seats in the Knesset based on their share of the national vote. Parties then negotiate to form a coalition government capable of securing at least 61 seats.
That system means Netanyahu’s Likud party does not necessarily need to win the most seats for him to remain prime minister. What matters is whether he and his allies can assemble a majority coalition. Smaller parties can play an influential role in determining which leader ultimately forms the next government.
Netanyahu’s long tenure faces a test
Netanyahu is Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, having held the office across multiple periods since 1996. His leadership has been defined by a focus on national security and a close relationship with Republican leaders in Washington.
However, his government has faced intense scrutiny over the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, the wars that followed, and questions about political accountability and domestic policy. The election is widely viewed as a referendum on his leadership and handling of the country’s security.
Netanyahu’s main challengers are seeking to capitalize on dissatisfaction with his government, though the opposition remains divided among several parties. The outcome could depend heavily on coalition negotiations after votes are counted.
What the election could mean for the U.S. and Iran
Trump’s endorsement underscores the importance his administration places on Netanyahu as a partner in confronting Iran. The two leaders have publicly emphasized their shared security objectives, although their approaches to regional conflicts and diplomacy have not always been identical.
The election could influence how closely Israel’s next government aligns with Washington on Iran, military strategy and other Middle East issues. A new prime minister or a different coalition could shift priorities or the tone of negotiations, but it would not automatically end the longstanding U.S.-Israel strategic partnership.
Iran is also not the only issue facing Israeli voters. Security following the October 7 attack, the wars involving Israel, economic pressures, military-service exemptions and domestic political divisions are all part of the broader election debate.
Ultimately, the result will determine who has the political support to govern Israel. It will not, by itself, determine the future of the U.S.-Israel alliance or the course of the confrontation with Iran. Those outcomes will depend on decisions made by both governments after the election.