Two Democratic strongholds in Texas, Harris and Dallas counties, posted record first-day early-voting numbers, an encouraging sign for Democrats in parts of the state they cannot afford to lose. However, there were also promising signs for Republicans, with the GOP stronghold of Denton County smashing its own record, underscoring high voter enthusiasm on both sides.
Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico has emerged as a contender to win the seat, with recent polls showing him narrowly ahead of Republican rival Ken Paxton. In the gubernatorial contest, GOP Governor Greg Abbott is in a tight race with Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa, who has narrowed the gap to about 2 points according to polling aggregator RealClearPolling.
A Democrat has not won a statewide race in Texas in 32 years.
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The prospect of Texas turning blue has alarmed Republicans over which party controls the Senate for President Donald Trump’s final two years in office. Trump carried the state by almost 14 points in the 2024 election, but his approval rating has slipped in Texas and across the country amid concerns about the economy, high gas prices and the Iran war.
Cal Jillson, a professor of political science at Texas’ Southern Methodist University, told Newsweek that while reports of high turnout on the first day of early voting have come from both Democrat and Republican counties, “everything we know about this election cycle suggest that Democrats are more enthusiastic and more eager to cast votes than Republicans.”
The numbers “certainly will suggest to Republican party officials and voters that Democrats are energized,” he said. “The question is whether that knowledge leads to a Republican countermobilization. Both sides know that more Democrats traditionally take advantage of early voting while more Republicans wait to vote on election day. Democrats need to build up an early lead that can survive an election day Republican surge.”
Republicans will be looking for strong turnout in rural Texas and GOP-leaning suburban counties to counter Democratic strength in the state’s major urban centers. Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick and conservative commentator Mark Levin urged rural and suburban voters to get out and vote, during Monday’s episode of Patrick’s podcast.
Newsweek contacted the Talarico and Paxton campaigns for comment via emails sent outside regular office hours on Tuesday.
Entering the November 3 election day, Republicans hold a 218-214 edge in the House and 53-47 Senate majority.
What Day 1 of Early Voting Showed
In Harris County, which includes Houston, election officials reported that the county had broken its record for turnout on the first day of early voting in a midterm election.
The Harris County Elections Department reported on X that by 3:30 p.m. Monday, more than 70,000 voters had been processed, surpassing the previous record of 63,188 set in 2018, with 3.5 hours remaining.
However, Harris County also has significantly more registered voters than it did in 2018.
Processing 70,000 voters represents an increase of about 10.8 percent over the 2018 record. By comparison, the county’s number of registered voters has risen 14.7 percent, from 2,357,199 in 2018 to 2,702,952 this year, according to county data.
Meanwhile, Dallas County broke its record for the first-day of early voting of any election. Judge Clay Jenkins reported on X that the county had 76,069 voters on the first day of early voting on Monday, surpassing the previous record set in 2020, when 60,573 voted. That represents a 25.6 percent jump.
The number of registered voters in Dallas County rose from 1,398,469 in 2020 to 1,463,708 this year, a 4.7 percent rise.
Turnout in El Paso County on the first day of early voting was the second highest on record for a midterm election.
The county, which has historically been a Democratic stronghold, received 22,412 votes on the first day of early voting, according to El Paso Matters. The record for a midterm was set in the 2018 midterm election, which saw 24,449 votes on the first day of early voting.
Harris and Dallas counties are the state’s two most populous countries and routinely provide Democratic candidates with some of their largest margins. El Paso, while heavily Democratic, has historically struggled with comparatively weaker turnout than other major Democratic strongholds.
Costas Panagopoulos, a professor of political science at Northeastern University, told Newsweek: “These numbers imply an advantage for Democrats going into Election Day, but these gains are not insurmountable. The 2018 figures in El Paso reflect just how much caution is needed. Early turnout then was even higher than it is now, and Beto O’Rourke still lost statewide. Both parties and their candidates would be wise to keep the pedal to the metal through Election Day and not take anything for granted.”
Republican stronghold counties also reported increases in turnout on the first day of early voting.
Denton County smashed its previous record. It reported 34,700 votes cast on the first day of early voting, up more than 80 percent from its 2018 record of 19,044. The number of registered voters there rose 29.5 percent in that time, from 497,490 in 2018 to 644,341 this year.
Collin County reported more than 34,500 ballots were cast on the first day of early voting, an increase of about 3.5 percent from 33,350 in 2018. The number of egistered voters there rose almost 30 percent since then, from 579,893 in 2018 to 752,502 this year, according to county data.
Republicans Rally Rural Texas To Vote
On his podcast on Monday, Lt. Gov. Patrick said Republicans could win in Texas if enough rural and suburban voters come out to vote to offset Democratic voters.
“It’s up to rural America um to save the country,” he said.
“It’s up to rural America and it’s up to all those Republicans who live in blue congressional districts to rise up and say, my vote counts too. I may only be 30 percent of the district, but when you add up all the suburban and urban with the rural, that’s how we’ve been winning and that’s how we have to win again.”
Conservative influencer Levin has argued the state’s elections could play a pivotal role in determining the future balance of power in Washington, reflecting broader concerns that demographic changes and Democratic organizing efforts could gradually erode the GOP’s longstanding dominance in Texas.
“Get your family, get your friends. This is what I say on radio. This is what I believe in. Well, we’re going to lose a country because they’re going to outvote us,” Levin told voters.
Republican concerns that Democrats could flip Texas has led to more than $158 million in outside spending by Republican leadership in the race and calls for rural and suburban voters to turn out. Trump has already visited the state three times over the course of a month to rally voters behind Paxton, and is set to return during early voting this week.
Patrick told listeners he worried about divide and apathy among conservatives heading into the midterms, which he suggested put Texas at the center of a battle against “the socialist left.”
“One of the issues I’m dealing with is people don’t believe it,” he said. “You know, I hear it all the time ‘Dan you and Abbott re gonna win, don’t worry about it.’ They’re not taking this threat to the Constitution and threat to everything they have and everything they’ll ever have.
“I don’t know if enough Republicans across the country and even in Texas are taking this seriously enough because I hear some Republicans say, ‘well I don’t like that person or that issue.'”
Texas Newspapers Back James Talarico
Over the weekend, The Dallas Morning News became the latest newspaper to endorse Talarico for Senate.
The newspaper’s editorial board said it had supported Republican John Cornyn in every race he ran for Senate, but was now backing Talarico over Paxton.
Noting Paxton’s lengthy history of scandals, the board wrote that Texans have a choice “between a man who is unfit for office based on a long history of corruption and a man of integrity who is well prepared for higher office and who has demonstrated a degree of political independence uncommon in our era of blind partisanship.”
Paxton has shown the state that he is “not only dishonest; he’s a puppet,” it added. “Agree or disagree with Talarico, all the evidence is that he’s an honest and independent man. Even if there are times when we disagree with him, don’t Texans deserve an honest and independent man as senator?”
Talarico has also been endorsed by three major Texas newspapers: the Houston Chronicle, Austin American-Statesman and San Antonio Express-News.
Those endorsements echo the support Democrat Beto O’Rourke received during his unsuccessful 2018 Senate challenge to Republican Ted Cruz.
James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton: What Latest Polls Show
Talarico has led most polls since Paxton clinched the nomination, usually inside the margin of error. The RealClearPolitics average of polls has him leading by 2.2 points—48.5 percent to Paxton’s 46.3 percent—as of Tuesday.
The most recent survey in that average, a CBS News/YouGov poll of 1,458 likely voters conducted from October 8 to 16, had Talarico up 51 percent to 49 percent. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for likely voters.
A University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs poll of 2,000 likely voters, conducted October 10 to 14, found Talarico ahead, 48 percent to Paxton’s 46 percent. Libertarian Ted Brown drew 3 percent of support, while another 3 percent were undecided. The survey has a a margin of error of plus or minus 2.19 percentage points.
Paxton has led in only one of the six most recent public surveys.
An InsiderAdvantage poll of 1,200 likely voters between October 13 and 14, showed Paxton with a narrow lead, 49 percent to Talarico’s 48 percent.
Marist’s poll of 1,196 likely voters, conducted October 8 to 11, put Talarico at 47 percent and Paxton at 45 percent. A Quantus Insights poll of 839 likely voters between October 9 and 10 found the candidates tied at 47 percent.
Greg Abbott vs. Gina Hinojosa: What Latest Polls Show
Abbott is ahead in most recent polls, but by margins far thinner than the ones he is used to. The RealClearPolitics average of polls has the incumbent ahead by 3.4 points as of Tuesday, 48.7 percent to Hinojosa’s 45.3 percent.
The latest CBS News/YouGov poll, conducted among 1,460 likely voters between October 8 and 16, gives Abbott a slight lead over Hinojosa, 52 percent to 48 percent.
A University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs poll, which surveyed 2,000 likely voters between October 10 and 14, found Abbott ahead by three points, 49 percent to Hinojosa’s 46 percent.
A Marist University poll of 1,196 likely voters, conducted October 8 to 11, had Abbott ahead by four points, 49 percent to 45 percent. A ReconMR/Siena Research Institute poll of 617 likely voters, conducted October 5 to 8, had Abbott up by 1 point, 48 percent to 47 percent.
Hinojosa came out narrowly ahead in two others. A University of Texas/YouGov poll of 861 likely voters, conducted September 25 to October 5, had Hinojosa at 49 percent and Abbott at 48 percent. Meanwhile, a GBAO poll conducted for the Hinojosa campaign had her ahead 47 percent to 45 percent.
Update 10/20/26, 8:38 a.m. ET: Analysis from Texas’ Southern Methodist University’s Cal Jillson was added.
Update 10/20/26, 9:27 a.m. ET: Analysis by Northeastern University’s Costas Panagopoulos was added.