Elections, but no doctrine shift
Israel’s upcoming elections next week may bring a new leader, but Reuters and other analysts say the strategic constants will not shift, with Iran remaining the principal rival and military force remaining the preferred instrument.
Avi Bouchinski, a former Netanyahu adviser, said, “If Netanyahu is elected, he will do everything he thinks he wants to do… He will continue expanding settlements,” and he added that “Wars against Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah will continue.”
Netanyahu told Sunday that Israel must prioritize “deterrence, offense, and delivering them ahead of containment and defense,” including conducting preemptive strikes to prevent emerging threats.
Ghassan K. Khreib, a Palestinian analyst, said there is “no likelihood of a fundamental shift in policy toward the Palestinians,” arguing that parties compete to show tougher stances while the “core of policy is no Palestinian state, yes to more settlement.”
A State Department spokesperson told Reuters that Washington will keep applying pressure on Tehran, affirming, “As long as Iran dedicates its energy revenues to financing attacks against our partners, supports terrorism worldwide, and engages in other destabilizing activities, we will use all tools available to hold this regime accountable.”
Tehran, context photograph from 2018-04-26Archive photo · 2018-04-26 · Ninara from Helsinki, Finland · CC BY-SA 3.0Warnings, blame, and timing
Israeli security officials warned the government against striking Iran at this time, KAN News reported Wednesday evening, saying an attack could be perceived as political interference in the elections. Yair Lapid challenged the need for immediate military action, saying, “Based on the information available to me, there is absolutely no reason to attack Iran or anywhere else before the elections,” and he added, “Elections in a democratic country are important and sacred, part of our strength.” Defense Minister Israel Katz lashed out at opposition leaders, saying, “Every attack on Israel and all future terrorist attacks, if God forbid there are any, will be the fault of Yair Lapid, Naftali Bennett, Yair Golan, and their friends in the opposition.”
What some reports left out
Israeli jets flew to Iran’s border as an exercise or provocation
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No pre-election strike2 of 7 outlets reported it · not in Modern Diplomacy and 4 more▾
Gadi Eisenkot responded that Katz was “preparing the ground for the next disaster and shifting blame in advance,” and he wrote on X that “Our army is strong, but our leadership is rotten and dangerous.” Lapid called Katz’s statement a “gift to Israel’s enemies,” and he said the government was “turning the Israel’s security into a circus.”
Plans for strikes after votes
The New York Times reported that the United States and Israel have drawn up specific plans for renewed strikes on Iran to be carried out after the American midterm elections, and the report said the militaries are preparing a short, intensive operation. The New York Times said the militaries stepped up exercises, with planes flying over Iraq to rehearse strike maneuvers, and it reported that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel this week to discuss new strikes. The likely targets, the report said, are Iran’s energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile and drone arsenal, while some officials said refineries would be spared so as not to push gasoline prices higher.
Netanyahu denied a Financial Times report that Trump halted an Israeli strike on Iran earlier this month, telling Channel 7, “That report is incorrect,” and he said he would not go into what was actually said in recent conversations with Trump over Iran. The Times of Israel reported that three people familiar with the matter said the Israel Defense Forces was ready to carry out strikes on the weekend of October 10, but Trump decided not to restart the conflict before the US midterms on November 3.
New York City, context photograph from 2021-09-20Archive photo · 2021-09-20 · Dllu · CC BY-SA 4.0