Russia’s offensive in Ukraine has effectively gone into reverse in recent weeks, with Moscow losing more territory than it has captured since the beginning of September while its personnel losses continue to climb, according to an October 22 assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
ISW estimates that since September 1, Russian forces have lost a net 241 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory—meaning Ukrainian gains have exceeded Russian advances by that amount.
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The pace of Russia’s territorial progress has also slowed sharply compared with 2025. During 2026, Russian forces have advanced at an average rate of only about 0.25 square kilometers per day.
At the same time, Ukrainian forces have increasingly regained the initiative on several sections of the front.
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One of the most significant recent examples was Operation Vivaldi on the Lyman axis. Ukrainian forces recaptured more than 270 square kilometers of territory during the operation and disrupted Russian plans to threaten Ukraine’s so-called Fortress Belt in the Donetsk region.
Russia’s manpower situation is also deteriorating. ISW noted that monthly personnel losses are rising while recruitment is struggling to keep pace.
Since the beginning of October 2026, Russia has already lost nearly 37,000 troops, according to Ukrainian estimates cited in the assessment. For comparison, Russia’s personnel losses during the entire month of October 2025 totaled 31,270.
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ISW assessed that the Kremlin could face increasing pressure in the coming months if Ukraine continues to seize the initiative and disrupt Russian offensive plans.
If current trends persist, Russian commanders may push more aggressively for some form of additional mobilization as battlefield losses increasingly outpace Moscow’s ability to replace personnel.
The broader picture, according to ISW, is that Russia is continuing to expend large numbers of troops without producing corresponding territorial gains—a trend that could become increasingly difficult for Moscow to sustain if Ukraine maintains its recent momentum.
Earlier, Ukrainian forces traveled more than 15 kilometers through underground infrastructure before emerging behind Russian positions during Operation VELES, a counteroffensive operation on the Kupiansk axis coordinated by the 2nd Khartiia Corps of Ukraine’s National Guard.
