The New York Times (NYT) reported on the 25th that the risk of the United States and Iran entering a full-scale war again has grown.
U.S. President Donald Trump /Courtesy of AFP=Yonhap
According to the NYT, concern has been raised within the Donald Trump administration that Iran has entered the “advanced stages” of a plan targeting U.S. officials.
Earlier, on the 23rd, U.S. media reported that the Director General of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) briefed key Trump administration figures, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, saying, “We have received information that Iran has significantly intensified its efforts to target American personnel.”
In this regard, a senior European official warned that, if the U.S. intelligence community’s assessment is true, a large-scale war could be triggered. The NYT said that even some officials questioned why sensitive classified information was disclosed when the Trump administration was in no position to publicly present evidence of a specific attack plan.
The fact that President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu each face elections that could determine the fate of their administrations is also complicating the calculus on both sides. Analysts said Netanyahu could carry out a final strike that a successor would hesitate to attempt even if he loses the election, and Trump could likewise seek to showcase that his authority as commander in chief remains intact.
Trump is aware that there is strong aversion to war even among his most ardent supporters, but he may seek to demonstrate that his authority as commander in chief remains intact.
The NYT noted that, as seen in the past during the Cuban missile crisis and the decision to invade Iraq, incomplete or incorrect information and misunderstandings of the other side’s intentions can lead to disastrous results.
Trump has reportedly been leaning, in private, toward additional strikes targeting Iran. An official familiar with the matter said U.S. Central Command has expanded its bombing target list to include key economic facilities such as Iran’s energy infrastructure.
In Iran as well, there is a prevailing conviction that the United States and Israel are preparing new attacks as a final offensive to force the country to submit. Iran recently warned that “there is no red line,” and that if U.S. attacks resume, undersea communication cables running through the Gulf could become targets.
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