About a week after U.S. President Donald Trump unexpectedly said he and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had agreed to end U.S. military aid to Israel by the end of this year, ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth have learned new details of the emerging security memorandum of understanding. The bottom line: American military assistance to Israel will not end immediately. Instead, the total direct military aid package is expected to be cut roughly in half by limiting it to five years after 2028 rather than 10, after which it is planned to end entirely. At the same time, U.S. funding for joint air and missile defense development is expected to rise from the current $500 million annually to an amount that has yet to be determined.
The goal is to finalize a new agreement by the end of this year, before the new Congress takes office in January. Negotiations are being conducted by teams from both countries, with representatives working on behalf of Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the American side and officials from Israel’s Defense Ministry and its embassy in Washington on the Israeli side.
(Photo: Jewel Samad/Pool Photo via AP, ALEX WONG / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / AFP)
The Israeli teams were stunned by Trump’s announcement that aid would end by the close of 2026 and did not understand what he meant. A senior Israeli official assessed that Trump made the statement largely for domestic political reasons, in an effort to help Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers in Michigan against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, a sharp critic of Israel. The effort did not help: El-Sayed defeated Rogers and became the first Muslim elected to the U.S. Senate.
Trump had told Fox News on Election Day: “We were giving them $4 billion. We are, but it gets cut off at the end of the year.” He also said Netanyahu had raised the idea of ending the aid, arguing that Israel had become a successful country that no longer needed it.
But the emerging arrangement does not envision an immediate halt. Instead, U.S. military assistance would be phased out over five years after the current agreement expires in 2028. Under the existing model, Israel receives $3.3 billion annually in Foreign Military Financing for 10 years, or $33 billion in total. The emerging agreement would provide a similar annual level for only five years, amounting to roughly $16.5 billion, before direct military assistance ends. The current agreement remains in force through 2028.
What does US military aid include?
Of the $3.8 billion Israel receives annually under the current agreement, $3.3 billion is allocated through Foreign Military Financing, or FMF. The money is used to purchase weapons, military equipment, fighter jets, helicopters and munitions produced by U.S. defense companies. Israel was previously permitted to convert part of the funding into shekels for purchases from Israeli defense firms, though that provision has been gradually phased out.
The remaining $500 million a year is allocated to joint missile-defense cooperation, funding research, development and production of active defense systems including Iron Dome, David’s Sling and Arrow. Under the emerging agreement, that amount is expected to increase as the threat from drones and missiles grows, requiring additional joint research and development that officials say would benefit both countries.
Trump’s announcement
(Video: Fox News)
A senior Israeli official familiar with the negotiations said some members of Congress oppose reducing assistance to Israel for a straightforward economic reason: much of the money is ultimately spent in their own states and supports American defense manufacturers. After Netanyahu publicly expressed his desire to eventually end U.S. military aid, senators approached Israeli officials and asked whether Israel understood the consequences.
“We are moving here from a model of aid to a model of partnership,” the senior Israeli official said. “It is important to remember that most of the security assistance remains in America and contributes to the American economy. Cutting it would also hurt American industries and require adjustments.”
The emerging agreement is intended to be finalized before the end of 2026, while the current Congress is still in office. Israeli officials believe it can secure political backing before the new Congress takes office, but the larger concern is what happens afterward. A bilateral MOU does not itself require Senate ratification, but Congress must appropriate the aid funding each year.
Israeli officials fear the incoming Congress could place obstacles in the way or delay military assistance through 2028 under the existing MOU and later under the new framework expected to take effect after 2028. That could pose a significant challenge because the funding packages still depend on annual congressional appropriations.
Israel will have to take that political reality into account, and officials believe the composition of its next government could matter. New faces in the government could make it significantly easier to secure congressional backing, they say. But Democratic officials warn that if Netanyahu remains the face of Israel, securing continued military assistance could become far more difficult.