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With two weeks left, the season seems to be panning out nicely for the Melbourne Storm to lift the trophy for the first time in five years.
Penrith have dropped two on the trot and are all but certain to miss out on the top four, Canterbury are in a mini slump, the Warriors are missing a few of their key players, likewise Brisbane.
The Raiders shape as the Storm’s major obstacle but there are question marks over Canberra’s big-game experience.
All the while, the Storm keep racking up wins without star half Jahrome Hughes and even with Harry Grant suspended for the final fortnight, he was probably going to be rested for one of those two matches anyway.
Here’s how the teams stack up after Round 25.Â
1. Raiders (Last week 1): History says that they have overachieved and are unlikely to do any damage in the finals.
But who says they can’t be a team of destiny? The way in which they avoided defeat by a Mudgee goalpost and then ran the ball the length of the field on Friday night suggests they have more than a puncher’s chance in the finals.
2. Storm (2): They are humming along beautifully. And it’s a pretty good problem to have when you lose a player the calibre of Harry Grant but you get Jahrome Hughes back in return.
Their 20-14 triumph over the Bulldogs was all class and the Roosters are in for a tough time this Friday night at AAMI Park.
3. Broncos (6): They get a few bumps up the pecking order this week after smashing Newcastle. Not that beating the Knights is much to write home about.
Reece Walsh passes. (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
But with the Panthers, Roosters and Bulldogs slipping up, Brisbane are starting to round into form for the finals.
4. Panthers (3): They have lost twice in a row in extra time so they’re not too far off the pace.
But the fact that they have dropped to seventh now on the ladder with only two rounds left means that they are set be playing sudden-death footy from the get-go in the finals and no team has won from that starting point in 30 years.
5. Roosters (4): You could say that they lost to Parramatta because Sam Walker went off early with a concussion, but they already looked like a team that was off their game at that stage.
And with their halfback unable to suit up against the Storm, there’s still no guarantee they will even make the playoffs.
6. Bulldogs (5): They were much better in losing to the Storm than the previous week against the Roosters.
The Dogs have been pretty average over the past couple of months, winning just four of their past nine and as much as they simply had to take the opportunity to sign Lachie Galvin when he came on the market (to their “surprise), the mid-season disruption to their spine stymied the momentum they had built up in the first half of the year.
7. Sharks (7): Had the bye last week and get the next closest thing when they host Newcastle this Sunday before a crunch match looms in the final round against the Bulldogs.
8. Warriors (10): They have shown signs of life in the past couple of weeks in getting over the Titans and Dragons, but that formline does not amount to a whole lot.
They need to polish off Parramatta and Manly before the finals to show that they are the real deal.
9. Eels (11): They were ultra impressive in upsetting the Roosters on Saturday night.
And if Mitchell Moses had played most of the season, they could even be threatening for the finals.
10. Rabbitohs (13): The 40-0 flogging of the Dragons was their third win on the trot with two of the smallest players in the NRL in Jye Gray and Ashton Ward stepping their way through, around and under much bigger opponents.
They even get a week to rest their weary feet before locking horns with the Roosters in the final round.
11. Sea Eagles (14): After four straight losses, they have managed to remain in the playoff hunt by belting the Dolphins
It was a nice way to bring up Daly Cherry-Evans’ 350th game but they have still been one of the big disappointments of 2025 despite a heavy injury toll.
12. Tigers (11): Just when you thought they were a chance of one of the most unlikely playoff runs of all time they coughed up a 12-point lead at home against the lowly Cowboys and their season vanishes into thin air.
They are still an immature team in tight situations and they only have themselves to blame for throwing that one away.
13. Dolphins (10): They are paddling upstream and although there’s a fair chance the Roosters will open the door for them to take eighth spot, they still have to beat the Titans and Raiders to snare a maiden finals berth and only one of those results seems a possibility.
14. Cowboys (15): They get a slight bump up the rankings by virtue of their late blitz to sink the Tigers at Leichhardt.
The eternal frustration that is Scott Drinkwater was on full display with his defence costing a couple of tries but he engineered the three-try surge at the end for the Cowboys to restore some lost pride.
15. Dragons (12): They had plenty of injuries but Shane Flanagan was rightly filthy after their 40-point drubbing at the hands of South Sydney.
Expect them to bounce back big time against Manly this Saturday at Koagarah.
16. Knights (16): They took the fight to the Broncos for 60 minutes at Newcastle on Sunday but once the tide turned the floodgates opened and they were lucky not to have 50 points put on them.
17. Titans (17): They also held their gloves up against the Warriors at Cbus Super Stadium on Saturday although it felt like a home game for the visitors who had every Kiwi expat in South East Queensland cheering them.
Dessie’s bunch are still a chance of dodging the spoon if they can jag an upset over the Dolphins or the Tigers.