By Lori Turnbull

August 28, 2025

As Labour Day looms, the imminent return of the House of Commons on September 15th means Canadians will see a new political dynamic: the question period face-off between Prime Minister Mark Carney and a Pierre Poilievre fighting for his political life.

That Poilievre is a polarizing figure is not news. The 46-year-old career politician made his reputation as a slash-and-burn political streetfighter whose tactics have always upstaged his policy prescriptions.

But the widespread assumption was that, following both the national election results and Poilievre’s loss of his own riding in April, he would reassess that approach. Instead, Poilievre’s public outings since his expected byelection win in the safe Alberta Tory seat of Battle-River Crowfoot last week have revealed the opposite. Indeed, in one news conference, Poilievre called the Prime Minister a “walking talking broken promise” and said that he was “worse than Trudeau.” Expect a slew of attack ads with a similar refrain.

Though he won the leadership of the Conservative Party handily in 2022, capturing 68% of the vote on the first ballot, Poilievre has not been as successful in connecting broadly with the Canadian public (and with women voters in particular).

Back in October of 2024, when the Conservatives held a 21-point lead over the Liberals, an Abacus Data poll found that there were still more people who held a negative impression of Poilievre than a positive one. Now that the 2025 election has come and gone, and the Conservatives remain the Official Opposition, an Angus Reid poll finds that while 68% of Conservative voters support Poilievre, 54% of those who thought about voting Conservative but ultimately decided against it want to see him replaced. Poilievre’s viability as leader depends on convincing the latter of these voter groups to give him another look.

Even if his negativity burns bridges with some people, Pierre Poilievre will do his level best to convince voters to give Carney a failing grade.

The conventional wisdom following Poilievre’s double election losses in April — including among longtime Tory strategists who criticized Poilievre campaign guru Jenni Byrne for not adjusting his tone for a new Liberal opponent voters were not as hostile toward — was that Poilievre’s combative style had long worn out its welcome with voters.

To remain Conservative leader, much less fulfill his quest to be the prime minister, Poilievre needs to expand his appeal beyond the MAGA-adjacent Conservative base. He needs to get back to a place where he is appealing to the centre of the political spectrum; the people who are looking to cast a common-sense ballot. He needs to build on his support in seat-rich Ontario and on the east and west coasts. While the base will tolerate and even encourage his negative messaging, it’s not the way to build bridges with other voters.

Back when Justin Trudeau and Chrystia Freeland were running the country, it was much easier for Poilievre to differentiate himself and offer a real choice. As Trudeau’s personal popularity fell and the Liberal government’s approval ratings went with it, all Poilievre had to do was show up with a reasonable set of proposals around immigration, housing, and fiscal management and many voters outside the Conservative base were willing to give him a shot, even with his angry energy.

But now that Carney is proposing pipelines, infrastructure funding, increased defence spending, and a streamlined public service, moderate Conservative voters can find a home without having to grudgingly support Poilievre. He needs to convince the public that he would somehow do a better job of these things than Carney would, which, given Carney’s economic and monetary policy experience both in Canada and abroad, is a tough sell. This is why we hear him take issue not so much with what Carney is doing but instead with how long it takes him to do it. To be fair, depending on how things go, this could turn out to be an effective strategy.

In the meantime, there is every reason to think that Poilievre’s combative style will continue, not only because it helps to raise money, but because it’s a way of trying to break down public trust in Carney who, according to the latest  Spark* poll (August 14-18) 66% of Canadians have a positive view of; 47% say the same thing about Poilievre.

Again, if Poilievre largely agrees with what the government is doing, he is more likely to attack Carney on integrity, competence, and effectiveness. And, even if his negativity burns bridges with some people, Pierre Poilievre will do his level best to convince voters to give Carney a failing grade.

Policy Contributing Writer Lori Turnbull is a Senior Advisor at the Institute on Governance.