Forecasting a storms intensity however remains more challenging. Small changes in atmospheric conditions can have a large impact on whether a storm strengthens or weakens.
A 2024 study, external suggested the two main drivers to this uncertainty are changes in wind speed and direction through the atmosphere, known as vertical wind shear, and atmospheric moisture.
Vertical wind shear tends to rip storms apart, preventing intensification or even causing a storm to weaken. Moisture in the atmosphere provides the energy to build clouds to great heights and enables storms to “spin up”.
The most unpredictable storms occur when there is a moderate amount of wind shear and moisture in the atmosphere.
Improvements in computing power and new technologies to gather data hope to make these “high uncertainty” storms easier to forecast.
Whilst a weather event can now be a forecasting success it is still possible for it to be a communications failure, as demonstrated by Hurricane Sandy in 2012, which hit the east coast of the US.
A review found the forecasts issued, including surge forecasts, were remarkably accurate, but were not communicated in ways that made it easy for officials and the public to understand.
Sandy killed 159 people, including 44 in New York City, many from coastal flooding, never having expected such a storm could reach so far north.
Dr Leanne Archer of the University of Bristol believes that forecasting is only one part of the disaster management cycle.
She says, “It is vital that efforts continue to improve early warning systems, risk mapping, evacuation plans, scientific research and governance structures to ensure that places are prepared to act when the next hurricane season arrives.
“There is a still a considerable challenge where the forecast science is clear and yet the warnings do not meet the right people at the right time.”