Reform takes shock 15-point lead over Labour as Farage dreams of winning power

Reform UK has surged to a shock 15 points lead over Labour in the latest exclusive polling for The i Paper.

With just 20 per cent of voters now saying they would vote Labour, compared to 35 per cent for Reform, Nigel Farage would be standing on the steps of No 10 Downing Street with a landslide 400 seats if an election were held today.

It is the largest lead recorded by Reform since BMG began polling for The i Paper in April 2022.

New FeatureIn ShortQuick Stories. Same trusted journalism.

While a general election is still four years away and much could happen before then, the polling is still described as “catastrophic” for Labour which is struggling to grip the small boats issue.

Perhaps more immediately worrying for the party is the revelation that more voters trust Farage’s party to resolve small boats crossings than Labour, by a huge 41 per cent to 14 per cent.

Grim reading for Badenoch

The polling is also grim reading for Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch. The Conservatives trail behind both Reform and Labour with just 17 per cent saying they would vote for the party – a fall of 7 per cent since the general election.

Badenoch’s party is also third when voters are asked who they trust most to resolve small boats crossings – with just 8 per cent of voters having faith in the party.

The polling was carried out this week, after Nigel Farage laid out his plans to deport 600,000 migrants over five years if Reform came to power. Asked if they thought this was likely to be achievable 39 per cent of voters thought it was, compared to 29 per cent who didn’t.

Pollsters said that unless these figures began to change then “pressure for a shift in strategy, and even Prime Minister, will only intensify”.

Endorsement for Farage’s small boats plans

The results will be viewed by Farage as a ringing endorsement of his small boats plans, unveiled earlier this week, which would see the UK tear up its obligations under the European Convention of Human Rights and forcibly detain thousands of migrants in the UK.

It follows recent polls by YouGov, which had Reform 8 points ahead of Labour earlier this week, and Opinium Research last month that had Reform ahead by 7 points.

Reform’s lead marks the highest share of the vote the party has secured in BMG’s polling, and is an increase of three percentage points on last month’s results, giving further vindication for Farage’s decision to hammer his message on immigration over the summer months.

In a further boost for the veteran Brexiteer, the polling shows that Farage’s own satisfaction ratings have hit their highest level, with 37 per cent of voters saying they are satisfied with his performance, as opposed to 32 per cent who are dissatisfied, giving a net rating of +5 per cent.

This compares to ratings on Sir Keir Starmer’s performance hitting an all-time low, with 60 per cent saying they are dissatisfied with the Prime Minister’s actions to date, as opposed to just 19 per cent who are satisfied – a net dissatisfaction rating of -41 per cent. It means Starmer is as unpopular as Rishi Sunak was before the election last year.

Badenoch is on minus 9.

Reform boosted by Tory disaffection

Reform’s gains have been fuelled by disaffected Tory voters, with the Conservatives continuing to haemorrhage support since the 2024 general election. Some 30 per cent of those now backing Reform voted Conservative last year, while 15 per cent backed Labour.

And in further deeply troubling findings for the Government, voters believe that Farage’s party is best placed to tackle over half of the most pressing issues facing the country at the moment, particularly immigration.

According to the findings, 34 per cent of voters say Reform is most trusted to tackle rising levels of immigration, as opposed to just 15 per cent saying Labour is best placed and 10 per cent naming the Tories.

It follows a torrid summer for Labour and Keir Starmer over immigration, in which the number of migrants crossing the Channel since they came to power surpassed 50,000.

A court judgement ordering them to empty an asylum hotel in Essex has thrust the issue of hotel use to the top of the agenda and sparked more protests at hotels.

And even though the Court of Appeal on Friday overturned the decision in a comprehensive ruling, Labour were still on the back foot as opponents accused them of favouring asylum seekers rights’ over that of citizens.

Previous parties’ failures boosting Reform

Jack Curry, pollster at BMG, said frustration over the failure of successive governments to clamp down on the small boats crisis is “clearly fuelling support for Reform”.

Robert Struthers, head of polling at BMG, said that British politics is “being shaken to its core by the Reform surge”.

“Leadership ratings tell their own story,” Struthers said. “Nigel Farage’s net rating of +5 may not appear remarkable on its own, but it contrasts sharply with Keir Starmer’s figures which have dropped to a new low at -41. He’s now as unpopular as Sunak was before the election last year.

“The next election may still be some way off, but there’s no doubt these numbers are catastrophic for Labour. Unless things change, pressure for a shift in strategy and even Prime Minister will only intensify.”

Jack Curry, pollster at BMG added: “There is a striking consensus among the British public when it comes to the issue of small boats. The public sees no real difference between the current Labour Government and the previous Conservative government. Both are viewed as equally ineffective.

“That frustration is clearly fuelling support for Reform. When it comes to what people actually want done, the mood music is for a tougher approach. There’s strong support for protectionist measures like more border enforcement, stricter penalties and offshore processing. That’s especially true among Reform and Conservative voters.”

Labour’s plan

Labour argues that it has a plan to stop the use of asylum hotels by 2029, but that it should be done in a “controlled and orderly way”.

They also point to the backlog they inherited from the Conservatives, claiming it is 18 per cent lower than June 2024. Labour say that from over 400 asylum hotels open in summer 2023 – which cost an estimated £9m a day – there are now just over 200, and are aiming to have them all closed by the end of this Parliament, having already brought costs down to £5.5m a day.

In response to the Epping Court ruling on Friday, Home Office minister Angela Eagle said: “We inherited a chaotic asylum accommodation system costing billions.

“This government will close all hotels by the end of this Parliament and we appealed this judgment so hotels like the Bell can be exited in a controlled and orderly way.

“It will take some time to fix the broken system we inherited, but the British public deserve nothing less, and we will not stop until the job is done.”

BMG Research interviewed a representative sample of 1,504 GB adults online between 26-28 August 2025. BMG Research is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.