Fremantle winning close games against top-four teams on the road. Adelaide having a shot at going from 15th to the minor premiership. Sometimes we wonder why we even bother with tipping…
This is The Run Home, where Foxfooty.com.au analyses every club’s remaining fixture and tries to predict how the rest of the year will play out.
FOX FOOTY, available on Kayo Sports, is the only place to watch every match of every round in the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership Season LIVE in 4K, with no ad-breaks during play. New to Kayo? Get your first month for just $1. Limited-time offer.
Which teams could take advantage of an easy draw to climb the ladder, and which clubs could tumble down the table based on a tough run of games? See our predicted final ladder below.
IMAGINE WHAT YOU COULD BE BUYING INSTEAD. Set a deposit limit. For Free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
How does The Run Home work?
We’re trying to predict who makes the eight, but it’s more complicated than just running a ladder predictor.
The below projections predict each game on a percentage chance basis, and then use those percentages to give each team a projected win total.
For example, we might say two teams have a 50 per cent chance each of winning a very even game. So they’d each get 0.5 projected wins for their total. But if it’s an almost certain blowout, it might be 90-10, so the favourite gets 0.9 projected wins. That’s why almost all teams have a projection that’s not a round number.
It’s all about probability, and it’s more accurate than trying to simply tip wins and losses, because no-one can tip nine every round.
It also means the predicted win totals are naturally conservative at the top, and optimistic at the bottom – and it’s hard for teams to catch up to sides who are multiple wins ahead of them (which is a fair reflection of reality). If you’re able to win a bunch of 50-50s, you’ll make these projections look silly, but that’s not something anyone can accurately predict anyway.
At least one team will end up much higher or lower than we’re predicting. But think of the projected win totals as the average result if you played the season out 100 times.
Panel debates May’s fate after big hit | 04:27
PROJECTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS
First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Collingwod vs Geelong at the MCG
First Elimination Final (5th hosts 8th): Gold Coast Suns vs Hawthorn at People First Stadium
Second Elimination Final (6th hosts 7th): GWS Giants vs Fremantle at ENGIE Stadium
Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions at Adelaide Oval
PROJECTED FINAL LADDER
1. Collingwood (17.4 projected wins)
2. Adelaide Crows (16.25)
3. Brisbane Lions (16.1)
4. Geelong (15.8)
5. Gold Coast Suns (14.95)
6. GWS Giants (14.8)
7. Fremantle (14.75)
8. Hawthorn (14.4)
9. Western Bulldogs (13.9)
10. Sydney Swans (11.85)
11. Port Adelaide (9.95)
12. Carlton (9.5)
13. Melbourne (8.3)
14. St Kilda (7.85)
15. Essendon (6.95)
16. North Melbourne (6.35)
17. Richmond (6)
18. West Coast Eagles (1.9)
Key Talking Points
– FLAGMANTLE!?
– If we did a straight ladder predictor right now, we would have all nine contenders reaching at least 14 wins, and Hawthorn finishing 9th on percentage. But it’s more complicated than that;
– The Hawks have an extra win in the bank, and a better percentage than GWS and Fremantle, but a harder run than both of them. So they’re the most likely team to get stuck on 14 and miss out IF everyone gets there;
– But the Bulldogs were clearly the losers of the weekend. They’re two wins behind everyone but Gold Coast, who have a game in hand and plenty of winnable games to come. We still think the Dogs can get to 14 wins and knock someone else out, but they have to beat at least one contender (GWS or Freo) to do it. Luke Beveridge said they need to win their last five games to be certain of playing finals and he’s right about that;
– Collingwood has just one hand on the minor premiership now, not two. Adelaide can snatch it off them by winning their last five games, which includes a Round 23 meeting with the Pies in Adelaide, while Brisbane is clearly good enough to finish on top but has a much harder draw. And Geelong should really finish on a 5-0 run, which would give them 17 wins with a great percentage… these four should be the top four unless something crazy happens.
– Sorry, Sydney. No.
Foxfooty.com.au analyses The Run Home after Round 19.Source: FOX SPORTS
Below, all 18 clubs are listed and analysed in the current ladder order.
Remaining fixture difficulty is calculated using the average percentage of remaining opponents. This naturally advantages teams with a strong percentage themselves (because they can’t play themselves) and vice versa, and does not take into account the location of the game, but is a basic metric of how tough a fixture is.
1. COLLINGWOOD (14-4, 133.7%)
Remaining games
Round 20: Richmond at the MCG
Round 21: Brisbane Lions at the MCG
Round 22: Hawthorn at the MCG
Round 23: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval
Round 24: Melbourne at the MCG
Remaining fixture difficulty: 8th-hardest
And suddenly the Sydney 2024 vibes are very real. We’re still backing the Magpies to hold on for the minor premiership but even if they win four of five, if they lose to Brisbane or Adelaide, they can miss out on top spot. They would probably need to lose to both to miss a top-two finish but the fact that’s even plausible is pretty remarkable. Sometimes close games just don’t go your way…
Fox Footy’s projection: 17.4 wins, finishing 1st
Potential 2026 No.1 pick chooses Blues | 02:27
2. BRISBANE LIONS (13-4-1, 116.6%)
Remaining games
Round 20: Gold Coast Suns at People First Stadium
Round 21: Collingwood at the MCG
Round 22: Sydney Swans at the Gabba
Round 23: Fremantle at Optus Stadium
Round 24: Hawthorn at the Gabba
Remaining fixture difficulty: 3rd-hardest
No-one has ever missed the eight with 13 and a half wins; we’re not saying the Lions are totally safe because this is a weird year, but they’ve won four straight since they had those two weird games where goalkicking cost them the win and everyone got worried. Heck, goalkicking played a factor on Friday night, too; the Bulldogs shouldn’t have been that close. But another four points means the Lions are almost certain to avoid the disastrous scenario where their tricky fixture ends up ruining their season (which was entirely possible when they were 9-1-4!). They’ll play finals from here, because they’ll find at least one more win, and now it’s just about beating a few good teams to clinch the double chance. They probably would’ve preferred Collingwood beating Fremantle – staying above the teams below them is more important than catching the one team above them – but the minor premiership is certainly gettable if they play to the best of their abilities. Winning three of five should be enough for a top-four finish, especially if they beat Gold Coast next week.
Fox Footy’s projection: 16.1 wins, finishing 3rd
‘Would’ve been a travesty if we’d lost’ | 07:33
3. ADELAIDE CROWS (13-5, 139.6%)
Remaining games
Round 20: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Round 21: Hawthorn at Adelaide Oval
Round 22: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium
Round 23: Collingwood at Adelaide Oval
Round 24: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium
Remaining fixture difficulty: 5th-easiest
A nice bit of revenge against the Suns, and a huge step towards clinching a top-four spot, with the Crows now effectively three games ahead of Gold Coast and two games ahead of Geelong, Hawthorn, GWS and Fremantle. (To simplify it, let’s give the Suns their Round 24 win over Essendon now, and say the Crows are two wins ahead of everyone with five games left.) That mean unless something disastrous happens in those games against the bottom two, the Crows just need to win two of their remaining three games in Adelaide to guarantee the double chance. Even winning one, and reaching 16 wins with their percentage, should end up being enough. And Freo’s upset of Collingwood means the minor premiership is gettable now too; if all results go as expected, that Round 23 game should decide it! From bottom four to top four, and maybe from 15th to 1st… what a season.
Fox Footy’s projection: 16.25 wins, finishing 2nd
Cop that Ken! Ginni hits the plane celly | 00:28
4. GEELONG (12-6, 128.2%)
Remaining games
Round 20: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium
Round 21: Port Adelaide at GMHBA Stadium
Round 22: Essendon at GMHBA Stadium
Round 23: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Round 24: Richmond at the MCG
Remaining fixture difficulty: Easiest
The Cats simply have to keep taking care of business and hope the teams above them stumble. They might’ve preferred that Gold Coast had beaten Adelaide, even though it wouldn’t have changed Geelong’s projected position; we would’ve just had the Suns third and the Crows fifth. But it will be harder to catch Adelaide than it would’ve been to catch a victorious Gold Coast given the virtual two-game lead owned by Matthew Nicks’ men. Anyway; as long as the Cats beat the teams they should beat, they’ll make the top four. Their percentage is strong and the other teams on 12 wins are more likely to drop games. But they still need help to do any better than fourth and live up to the potential we’ve seen in their very best performances this season.
Fox Footy’s projection: 15.8 wins, finishing 4th
Scott pleased with Cats control | 07:14
5. HAWTHORN (12-6, 119%)
Remaining games
Round 20: Carlton at the MCG
Round 21: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval
Round 22: Collingwood at the MCG
Round 23: Melbourne at the MCG
Round 24: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Remaining fixture difficulty: 2nd-hardest
Despite kicking away late for a solid win over Port Adelaide, it wasn’t a great weekend for the Hawks, because of Fremantle’s upset over Collingwood. Their percentage lead over the Dockers won’t matter if the Dockers win one more game than they do, and we think that’s reasonably likely. So unless the Hawks can beat one of the top three teams at their home ground, they’re the most likely side to get stuck on 14 wins… which means the Bulldogs could still catch and pass them. Don’t be fooled by them being fifth on the ladder; we think the Hawks are fighting for a spot in the eight with whichever team loses the Round 21 Dogs-Giants game. A nervous month awaits.
Fox Footy’s projection: 14.4 wins, finishing 8th
Mitchell hints at potential changes… | 09:33
6. GWS GIANTS (12-6, 116%)
Remaining games
Round 20: Sydney Swans at ENGIE Stadium
Round 21: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium
Round 22: North Melbourne at Manuka Oval
Round 23: Gold Coast Suns at People First Stadium
Round 24: St Kilda at ENGIE Stadium
Remaining fixture difficulty: 7th-easiest
A better team would’ve punished them on Thursday night, and to be honest the Giants should’ve boosted their percentage way more against a mostly-VFL team that forgot which posts were the goal ones. Still a comfortable win but they wouldn’t want a similarly slow start against a higher-quality side. Two of those appear over the next fortnight, in arguably the Giants’ two most-important remaining home and away games. Beating Sydney and the Bulldogs would propel the orange team into the top-four conversation; lose both, and they’re left still needing to win their last three to clinch a spot in September. Overall an OK weekend for the Giants but they would’ve preferred Fremantle had lost along with the Dogs. Round 21 is massive.
Fox Footy’s projection: 14.8 wins, finishing 6th
Giants used Dons injuries as motivation | 11:02
7. FREMANTLE (12-6, 108.9%)
Remaining games
Round 20: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium
Round 21: Carlton at Optus Stadium
Round 22: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Round 23: Brisbane Lions at Optus Stadium
Round 24: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium
Remaining fixture difficulty: 9th-easiest
The prancing pony might’ve just led Fremantle into the finals. They needed to pinch one of their three games left against the contenders to feel better about their finals chances… and they only went and pulled a Collingwood against Collingwood. (Guess they need to train harder for those close ones.) Now the Dockers just need to get the job done against three bottom-eight opponents to likely clinch a spot in September, because 15 wins will be enough unless something absolutely absurd happens. And perhaps more importantly for their season, they now have the confidence gained from a ridiculous comeback against the flag favourites at the MCG in their back pocket. They’re not safe yet but that’s the biggest result for the finals race we’ve seen in weeks, wow.
Fox Footy’s projection: 14.75 wins, finishing 7th
‘Grity’ & ‘brave’ Freo win over Pies | 12:27
8. GOLD COAST SUNS (11-6, 115.5%)
Remaining games
Round 20: Brisbane Lions at People First Stadium
Round 21: Richmond at People First Stadium
Round 22: Carlton at Marvel Stadium
Round 23: GWS Giants at People First Stadium
Round 24 Part 1: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Round 24 Part 2: Essendon at People First Stadium
Remaining fixture difficulty: 4th-easiest
We figured Sunday wasn’t likely to go the Suns’ way but that was even worse than we feared; both the result in Adelaide, and the two results in Victoria. Not only is Gold Coast much less likely to make the top four with Geelong and Fremantle victorious, but they copped a big blow to their percentage which could hurt them in the race for spots in the lower half of the eight. With four games left against the bottom eight remaining, plus two tricky but winnable home games, we’re pretty sure the Suns will play finals but there is at least a bit of doubt now. We can certainly imagine a scenario where they lose to the Lions and Giants, and go into Round 24 actually needing to win both games just to guarantee themselves a spot in September. Beating Brisbane would be massive in terms of easing the pressure.
Fox Footy’s projection: 14.95 wins, finishing 5th
Dubious 50? Ump quizzed over Cerra call | 00:43
9. WESTERN BULLDOGS (10-8, 127.4%)
Remaining games
Round 20: Essendon at Marvel Stadium
Round 21: GWS Giants at Marvel Stadium
Round 22: Melbourne at the MCG
Round 23: West Coast Eagles at Marvel Stadium
Round 24: Fremantle at Marvel Stadium
Remaining fixture difficulty: 3rd-easiest
On Friday night, when Luke Beveridge said the Bulldogs need to win all five of their remaining games to play finals, we thought he was wrong. But he must’ve known Fremantle was going to beat Collingwood, because now they really might. This was an awful weekend for the Dogs who now genuinely need 14 wins, and possibly 15, to make the eight. The Dockers were the most catchable of the teams above them, but now Freo might already be on 15 wins by the time they meet in Round 24. They could still pass Freo on percentage in that scenario but they need an easier target; now we’re looking at Hawthorn as the most likely team to get stuck on 14 wins with them. Otherwise it’s the Giants, because they play them head-to-head, or maybe the Suns if you squint… those two face off in Round 23 so perhaps the loser of that one is gettable? Worst-case scenario if the Dogs lose one of their next four, they could be eliminated before Round 24 begins. That’s probably unlikely but Freo’s win makes it a live possibility.
Fox Footy’s projection: 13.9 wins, finishing 9th
Bevo reflects on another top 8 loss | 08:08
10. SYDNEY SWANS (9-9, 96.5%)
Remaining games
Round 20: GWS Giants at ENGIE Stadium
Round 21: Essendon at the SCG
Round 22: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Round 23: Geelong at the SCG
Round 24: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium
Remaining fixture difficulty: 6th-easiest
They’re not catching any of the 12-win teams unless something ridiculous happens. And they’re still basically three games behind the Suns, and two games behind the Dogs, because of percentage. It isn’t happening.
Fox Footy’s projection: 11.85 wins, finishing 10th
Cox lauds Heeney after STELLAR showing | 06:03
WON’T OR CAN’T PLAY FINALS
11. PORT ADELAIDE (8-10, 88%)
Remaining games
Round 20: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval
Round 21: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium
Round 22: Fremantle at Adelaide Oval
Round 23: Carlton at Marvel Stadium
Round 24: Gold Coast Suns at Adelaide Oval
Remaining fixture difficulty: Hardest
Fox Footy’s projection: 9.95 wins, finishing 11th
Hinkley applauds Ginni’s ‘payback cele’ | 03:30
12. CARLTON (7-11, 94.6%)
Remaining games
Round 20: Hawthorn at the MCG
Round 21: Fremantle at Optus Stadium
Round 22: Gold Coast Suns at Marvel Stadium
Round 23: Port Adelaide at Marvel Stadium
Round 24: Essendon at the MCG
Remaining fixture difficulty: 8th-easiest
Fox Footy’s projection: 9.5 wins, finishing 12th
Voss: Young guns ‘energised’ the team | 11:36
13. MELBOURNE (6-12, 89.7%)
Remaining games
Round 20: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium
Round 21: West Coast Eagles at Marvel Stadium
Round 22: Western Bulldogs at the MCG
Round 23: Hawthorn at the MCG
Round 24: Collingwood at the MCG
Remaining fixture difficulty: 9th-hardest
Fox Footy’s projection: 8.3 wins, finishing 13th
Goodwin rattled by ‘unacceptable’ loss | 10:25
14. ESSENDON (6-11, 75%)
Remaining games
Round 20: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium
Round 21: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Round 22: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium
Round 23: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium
Round 24 Part 1: Carlton at the MCG
Round 24 Part 2: Gold Coast Suns at People First Stadium
Remaining fixture difficulty: 5th-hardest
Fox Footy’s projection: 6.95 wins, finishing 15th
Scott praises ex-Don Stringer after loss | 12:54
15. ST KILDA (5-13, 85.3%)
Remaining games
Round 20: Melbourne at Marvel Stadium
Round 21: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium
Round 22: Richmond at the MCG
Round 23: Essendon at Marvel Stadium
Round 24: GWS Giants at ENGIE Stadium
Remaining fixture difficulty: 2nd-easiest
Fox Footy’s projection: 7.85 wins, finishing 14th
Ross pleased with Saints’ ‘good intent’ | 05:56
16. RICHMOND (5-13, 68.5%)
Remaining games
Round 20: Collingwood at the MCG
Round 21: Gold Coast Suns at People First Stadium
Round 22: St Kilda at the MCG
Round 23: North Melbourne at Ninja Stadium
Round 24: Geelong at the MCG
Remaining fixture difficulty: 6th-hardest
Fox Footy’s projection: 6 wins, finishing 17th
Yze’s young Tigers win second straight | 08:52
17. NORTH MELBOURNE (4-13-1, 76.1%)
Remaining games
Round 20: Geelong at Marvel Stadium
Round 21: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium
Round 22: GWS Giants at Manuka Oval
Round 23: Richmond at Ninja Stadium
Round 24: Adelaide Crows at Marvel Stadium
Remaining fixture difficulty: 7th-hardest
Fox Footy’s projection: 6.35 wins, finishing 16th
“Hurting deep in some souls” | 07:25
18. WEST COAST EAGLES (1-17, 63.6%)
Remaining games
Round 20: Fremantle at Optus Stadium
Round 21: Melbourne at Marvel Stadium
Round 22: Adelaide Crows at Optus Stadium
Round 23: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium
Round 24: Sydney Swans at Optus Stadium
Remaining fixture difficulty: 4th-hardest
Fox Footy’s projection: 1.9 wins, finishing 18th