As Essendon plummets ever lower, one expert believes just 13 current Bombers can be part of their next great team.
Plus the Saturday night showdown that exposed one rebuild that’s firing and another that’s failing, and much more.
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THE KEY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FAILING AND FIRING REBUILDS
It was billed as the ‘Battle of the Rebuilds” but if Saturday’s result is anything to go by, Richmond are miles ahead of a worrisome West Coast.
The Tigers demolished the Eagles in a one-sided encounter at Optus Stadium, raising plenty of questions over where West Coast’s list actually sits.
It was young Eagle Harley Reid playing a lone hand in the 49-point loss, leaving Fox Footy’s David King to question where his back-up is coming from.
Elliot Yeo hasn’t featured all year due to injury – but remains signed until the end of 2027, while Tim Kelly hasn’t been able to find his best – in and out of the side as a result of form.
King said it was crucial rebuilding sides had veteran bodies to call on in high-pressure situations, particularly in the midfield.
In Saturday night’s win, the Tigers were led admirably by senior ball-getters Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper — who combined for 63 disposals, 15 clearances and five goals — while on the other side of the coin, second-year prodigy Reid had minimal support.
“I think this is a good discussion to have, because you’ve got to keep some senior core players at your club and in your lineup when you go through a full rebuild like this,” King said.
“Hopper and Taranto are able to lead the way in the midfield, and not throw all the weight (on the youngsters). We’re looking at Harley Reid — who’s supporting Harley Reid at the moment?
“He’s just a young kid trying to find his way as well. They just don’t have the senior bodies at the moment.
“Richmond has got (Nick) Vlastuin down back, (Nathan) Broad … they’ve got enough senior core players to just steady the ship at the right times.”
Yze’s young Tigers win second straight | 08:52
Even Eagles coach Andrew McQualter conceded he needed to find someone to provide the support Reid needs.
“We’re aware we’ve got a 20-year-old carrying our midfield,” he said.
“It’s not an easy position for him – we’re going to work hard to give him help.”
While the Eagles are now all-but resigned to their second wooden spoon in three years, the Tigers are riding high off the back of a fifth win – and their first back to back victory in more than two years.
“Back-to-back. That’s five wins for the year, and there were a few pundits out there who said they wouldn’t win a game,” Jack Riewoldt said on Fox Footy’s Super Saturday Live.
“So, that’s five more than Mark Bickley, I reckon, said that they wouldn’t win a game this year. I kept the receipt, don’t worry.
“I think, to travel and win away from home is a big step in the right direction for Adem Yze and his coaching group and his playing group.
“(They’re) showing a little bit without one of their spearheads in Tom Lynch.”
“Hurting deep in some souls” | 07:25
Saturday night represented the first occasion since 2023 that Richmond has gone over 100 points.
And that means all signs are pointing to a promising rebuild.
“West Coast, you’d have to say, have been 3/10. And I think, Richmond, for where they’ve come from, they’re probably an 8/10. It’s been remarkable what they’ve been able to put in place so quickly,” King said of the current rebuild status of each side.
“And to see these young players get their opportunity — he hasn’t hidden them away, the coach, he’s put them in the front-line action, which has been terrific — and I think for all Richmond fans, they’ve had a dip for about 18 months and they’re back into it again; it’s amazing.
“This is a full-club rebuild, so well done.”
WILL THESE 13 BOMBERS BE AROUND WHEN THEY’RE FINALLY IN FLAG MIX?
How far is Essendon from true premiership contention? And if contention is, say, three to five years away, which of the club’s current players will still be around when that time finally arrives?
Dual North Melbourne premiership player David King assessed Essendon’s current list and made his verdict in comparison with the number of Melbourne players who played in Paul Roos’ 10-win 2016 side — his third and final year in charge — and survived to play in the Simon Goodwin-led flag in 2021.
Nine Demons players played for at least another five seasons after 2016 to taste the ultimate success: Angus Brayshaw, Max Gawn, James Harmes, Tom McDonald, Christian Salem, Clayton Oliver, Jack Viney, Christian Petracca and Alex Neal-Bullen.
Conversely, King believes there are 13 current Bombers who’ll still be rolling around in 2028-30 when an Essendon premiership triumph is a genuine possibility.
“The big question … When you look at Essendon and their lineup, not just (against GWS) but their list, how many would (still) be there in that three-to-five-year window?” King posed on Fox Footy on Thursday night.
“I’ve come up with (13 names) … these guys could survive through that period and give them an opportunity to thrive (in the future).
“(Zach) Merrett, Nic Martin, (Andrew) McGrath, (Sam) Durham, (Jordan) Ridley, (Archie) Roberts, (Zach) Reid, (Isaac) Kako, (Nate) Caddy, (Jye) Caldwell, (Mason) Redman — (Lewis) Hayes I’ve put in there; I’m a fan of Hayes — and (Ben) McKay.
“Some of those guys will be at the end of their tether (in another three-to-five years), and you hope they maintain form and a bit of health.
“But that’s a long way in front of (Melbourne’s) nine. A dozen that could do it now; they’ve just got to fill the edges, for me.”
How many Dons stay for their next flag? | 01:00
The oldest of that crop is skipper Merrett, who will have turned 30 years old by the start of next season, while the youngest is 19-year-old Kako.
Merrett and Durham are presently the club’s best inside ball-winners, and it’s understandable to think they’d still be a part of its core on-ball rotation a few years into the future.
But in terms of key senior player omissions, it’s debatable as to whether Sam Draper — a considerable possibility of departing the club this year — Kyle Langford, Darcy Parish, Nick Bryan and Harrison Jones will still be rolling around for the Bombers.
Langford will be up there in age in five years, Parish has had more than a few soft-tissue issues in his career, while you’d have to think Bryan and Jones are borderline.
The Age reported on Sunday up to nine list changes were expected this off-season with the likes of Dylan Shiel and Todd Goldstein tipped to depart.
Before nabbing Caddy and Kako, early drafting had been a considerable concern for the Bombers, with King’s list excluding former first-round picks Ben Hobbs, Nik Cox, Elijah Tsatas and Archie Perkins.
Instead, more of the Bombers’ draft gems have come from later in proceedings, such as the rookie and mid-season intakes.
Archie Roberts, a fourth-round pick in 2023, has been a promising revelation off half-back and should be in the prime of his career in three to five years, while Hayes was the No.25 choice in 2022 and shapes as a long-term key-position pillar.
Luamon Lual was Pick 39 and Vigo Visentini a rookie draftee in 2023, while Angus Clarke and Zak Johnson — second and fifth-round picks, respectively, last year — look like handy acquisitions. Durham and Massimo D’Ambrosio were mid-year pickups in years gone by.
Essendon has been utterly ravaged by injury this year, with 16 unavailable names sitting on the club’s injury list. It announced on Friday that high-performance boss Sean Murphy’s contract wouldn’t be renewed for next season.
The crisis has seen the Bombers blood a record-equalling 13 debutants this season, including fielding all four of their mid-season draftees in Thursday night’s loss to GWS — Archer May (Pick 6), Lachie Blakiston (Pick 13), Oskar Smartt (Pick 17), and Liam McMahon (Pick 18) — amid a seven-game losing streak.
Scott praises ex-Don Stringer after loss | 12:54
FREO DOES IT AGAIN… THE THING EVERYONE SAID THEY COULDN’T DO
Last season, when the Dockers fell apart and everyone was looking for a diagnosis, many stumbled upon that old favourite – ‘they can’t win close games’.
And to be fair, last season, the Dockers didn’t win close games. Other than the one-point win over Sydney, in which the Swans’ Logan McDonald missed after the siren, they went 1-5 with a draw in games decided by two goals or less.
Most notably, in their four losses to end the season, Fremantle lost by 1 point, 11 points, 9 points and 20 points. So it was easy to say ‘well, they can’t win the close ones, not like some teams… you know, like Collingwood!’.
Ahem. Sunday afternoon, anyone?
The kings of the close game, Collingwood, allowed Fremantle to storm back from nearly four goals down and pinch a one-point thriller at the MCG. Basically, the roles were reversed. Fremantle did a Collingwood and Collingwood did a Fremantle.
And in fact, they’ve switched roles all season. The Dockers are 5-3 in games decided by two goals or less and, specifically, they keep beating top teams in close games – add Collingwood by 1 to a list including Gold Coast by 11, Hawthorn by 13, the Bulldogs by 16 and Adelaide by 18.
Is this the best version of Freo? | 02:34
Meanwhile the Magpies are 3-3 in close games – regressing to the mean – with losses to Fremantle by 1, Geelong by 3 and Gold Coast by 6.
In fact Craig McRae’s men have now lost three of their last four games decided by a kick.
So have they lost their skills? Lost their magic? Lost their way? Nope. They’ve just lost a few close games. It happens.
“Managing those moments will be forever something we need to do. And you know, if the scoreboardsis an indication we haven’t managed it well enough,” McRae said post-game.
“I think we’ve lost three close games this year, won against the Cats and those two. Have we lost our spark? You’d hope not. But reality is, we’ll keep getting better at it. I thought last week, when we went into the had to win the game phase, it looked pretty good for us. Come from a big margin down, and we hit the front. So I think that’s still there.
“And the desperation and excitement for late in the game, you have a look at some of those contests where, you know, the ball’s spilling out. I thought we did a lot of the things right.
“I’d argue defensively, we didn’t do the same. Rather learn these lessons now.”
After being an absurd outlier across the 2022-23 seasons, the Magpies have played 17 close games across 2024-25. They’ve won nine of them. They are behaving like a normal team.
Just like the Dockers are. They’ve won a couple more close games than they’ve lost this year, but it’s close enough to even that they’re not an outlier. And almost every team will finish roughly close to even across every season.
So this is just a reminder not to jump at shadows, or to desperately try and find a narrative that doesn’t exist. We see a series of results and we want an explanation because we’re humans, and we love finding patterns even when they don’t exist; sometimes, things just happen.
‘Grity’ & ‘brave’ Freo win over Pies | 12:27
DOGS CONCERNS OVER ‘STARS AT THE TOP’… THEN WHAT?
Marcus Bontempelli. Ed Richards. Sam Darcy. Tom Liberatore. Tim English. Bailey Dale.
The Dogs have some of, if not the, most elite top-end talent in the AFL. But is it the Dogs’ second-tier, and more specially, their youth, that’s currently holding them back from being a bona fide premiership contender?
Friday night’s loss to Brisbane saw the Dogs fell to 1-8 against top eight teams this season in a record widely seen as their biggest flaw despite being viewed by some as a premiership dark horse.
It’s not like Luke Beveridge’s side has been embarrassed by the best teams. But until the Dogs can show it can beat them, it’s hard to take them too seriously in the premiership race.
They still need to qualify for finals yet, with the potential for the 10-8 Dogs to be two games outside the top eight by the end of the round, pending on other results.
But for all their starpower, it takes a full contribution across the board to get success amid concerns around the experience of the depth players in Beveridge’s side.
“They’ve been a top eight team for a lot of the year … (but) there’s a bit of work to do,” Collingwood great Nathan Buckley said of the Dogs on Friday night.
“The scoreboard shows that there’s not much of a gap, but it’s a big jump from where they are, to where they want to be — a top four team.
“They’ve still got a lot of young blokes running around; they had nine under 50 games (on Friday night).
“They’ve got the stars at the top, but they’ve still got a lot of players in that team that are going to take some time. And they may not be the ones that take them forward to become a top four team.”
Bevo reflects on another top 8 loss | 08:08
Lachie Bramble, Sam Davidson, Ryley Sanders, Joel Freijah, James O’Donnell, Luke Cleary, Riley Garcia, Lachie McNeil and Caleb Poulter were the Dogs with under 50 games experience to take the field against Brisbane.
Dual All-Australian Leigh Montagna last week put a line through the Dogs’ flag hopes, but was optimistic about their 2026 prospects given the glut of youth being exposed to AFL level compared to other contenders.
While getting experience into young players doesn’t guarantee they’ll improve — both as individuals and as a collective — the Dogs are in many ways on two timelines.
Sure, that holds the Dogs in good stead long term, but it’s perhaps why it’s hard to fully invest in them this year, compared to other teams with core groups who have played a stack of games together.
The Dogs still have their own core of stars, but the players around them on the edges have changed dramatically over the last couple of years as part of a recalibration of the list.
“It’s small margins. (The Dogs lost to Adelaide by) 11 points last week, 10 points this week — sometimes it comes down to moments in the game and in fourth quarters. With inexperience, it’s sometimes hard to manage the game for 120 minutes,” four-time premiership Hawk Jordan Lewis added.
Buckley had faith that Beveridge had all the tools to get the best out of this side in his bid to guide he club to a second premiership.
“Sitting in his (Beveridge’s) chair though, the competitive and never-give-in attitude — that’s an absolute prerequisite to become the team that you want to be,” the ex-Magpies coach said.
“And to bridge whatever gap there is between where you are and the best team; if you’re not the best team.”