One of the strangest finals races ever has set up a mouth-watering top eight where anyone can beat anyone.

After all, when the team that finished 8th had the sort of record that usually gets you into the top four, you know you’ve got eight genuine contenders.

But there’s still a pecking order when it comes to the premiership race – through certain match-ups, certain bracket advantages, and certain X-factors.

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Ahead of week one of the finals, we rank the eight contenders in our Finals Power Rankings!

1. GEELONG, 2. BRISBANE LIONS

If we had to pick the team we trusted most this finals series, it would not be Geelong. It would be Brisbane.

But the Cats have two advantages over their qualifying final opponent which mean they have to sit first in this ranking.

The first is that they’re playing at home on Friday night. Well, not at home, because it’s not in Geelong, but in their home state against an interstate opponent. The Lions have played the MCG well for the last two seasons, but the Cats play it more often, which matters.

The second advantage, and probably the most important, is their injury list. Because the Cats don’t have one.

The only player unavailable due to injury on the entire Geelong senior list is Toby Conway, who continues to battle foot issues. (They may solve that, and its long-term impact on their ruck plans, in the trade period by getting Rowan Marshall.) So they don’t have an injury list, they have an injury… line.

In contrast the Lions have four players who’d either be in the best 23, or just outside it, ruled out with season-long injuries plus Eric Hipwood who’s unlikely to be ready until a preliminary final. They were also without Jarrod Berry and Lachie Neale last week, and while both men should be back for Friday night, they haven’t had a clean run into September.

Baz opens up on mental health battle | 03:39

Speaking of clean runs into September… y’all heard about the Cats’ fixture over the last six weeks?

There’s one school of thought that playing a weak run of opponents heading into the finals is a bad thing, but there’s no real evidence of that. Plenty of teams that have had tough runs have done well, but many others that had to scratch and claw their way into September and looked like the form team suddenly hit the wall.

Think back to Sydney 2017, who started 0-6 but won 15 of their next 17 games, and went into an away semi-final as hot favourites… and got thrashed by the Cats. Basically, ‘momentum’ means something until it doesn’t. It’s an explanation of what has happened, not necessarily proof of what will happen.

The Cats also had a pretty easy run into September in 2022, facing five non-finalists plus the eighth-placed Bulldogs in their final six weeks, and that certainly didn’t hurt their flag chances. If anything we trust Chris Scott and his experienced coaching staff to use an easier portion of the fixture to perfection, getting their guys ready to peak at the pointy end.

Remember, the Cats only had an easy run to end the year because they had a hard run to start it. Nine of their first 17 games were against top-eight teams, with the Cats winning five.

Admittedly two of those losses were to Brisbane, but the Cats have never been better positioned to flip that run of form around. They lost last year’s prelim to the Lions, too, but remember that Max Holmes went off hurt in that game.

We have a few little niggling questions over the Lions, too. Their percentage is weirdly low, suggesting they haven’t been as dominant as they should’ve been given their record, and their defence is clearly worse than most of the other contenders – only Fremantle and GWS have conceded more points this year. Plus it’s hard to forget that frankly awful loss to Gold Coast which was barely a month ago.

But the premier is most likely to come from the Second Qualifying Final. The winner will have a home prelim, and the loser will be firmly favoured in their home semi against either Fremantle or Gold Coast.

And doesn’t it feel like we’re due a Grand Final that’s a rematch of an earlier Qualifying Final? We haven’t had one since 2018, when West Coast did the double over Collingwood.

We would tip the Cats to beat the Lions right now, but would tip the Lions to win if they rematched in a Grand Final.

Cameron named All-Australian captain! | 03:43

3. ADELAIDE CROWS

The part of the Crows’ historic rise from 15th to 1st that most people aren’t mentioning is that finishing 15th last year is part of the reason they finished 1st.

It would be unfair to say Adelaide had an easy draw, becuse they played three top-eight teams twice (Collingwood, Gold Coast and Hawthorn). But playing West Coast and North Melbourne twice, plus Port Adelaide being much worse than usual, gave them a heck of a headstart.

It meant that despite the Crows going 5-5 against the top eight, they were able to finish on top of the ladder, recording an AFL-best 13 wins against the bottom 10. Only they, Collingwood and the Bulldogs went unbeaten against non-finalists.

This isn’t anything new; Richmond in 2017 and Collingwood in 2018 used bottom-six draws to leap into the Grand Final. But those teams had a more recent history of success, in regards to playing finals footy – less so with the Pies, admittedly.

And history is the main thing keeping us from tipping the minor premiers from becoming major premiers. The Crows have done all they can to set themselves up for the flag, with two finals to come at Adelaide Oval, where they went 12-1 this season.

History says you don’t win the flag in your breakthrough year. You might come close, like the 2018 Magpies. You might even finish top two, like the 2019 Lions. But you don’t actually win the thing.

Crows ponder their Rankine replacement | 02:18

Just four teams have gone from missing finals one year to winning the premiership the next in the top-eight era – Melbourne 2021, Richmond 2017, Geelong 2007 and Adelaide 1997.

All of them had at least played finals within the past four seasons, and all bar Richmond had made a prelim within that time period. They had some finals experience.

The best comparison points might be the teams who had the record rise before the Crows went from 15th to 1st – Collingwood 2022 and Brisbane 2019, who each rose 13 spots on the ladder.

In each of their finals returns, they exited painfully. The Pies lost two games by a kick, and the Lions went out in straight sets, including an underrated epic semi-final against the Giants.

We just get ‘preliminary final loss that sets them up for future success’ vibes from the Crows. It matches past teams in their position.

That’s not to say they aren’t good enough to win it now; they’re about to go into a qualifying final as favourites. But they would likely get Brisbane or Geelong in a prelim final after that; the two most finals-tested sides in the race. And remember, they should’ve lost to the Lions at home earlier this year, and they did lose to the Cats at home.

It would hurt to lose that game, and make Izak Rankine’s deserved punishment even more impactful. But this team is gonna be good for a while, so they’ll bounce back and win one in time, just like the Pies did a year later, and just like the Lions eventually did.

Garner injured in Record-Breaking win | 01:23

4. COLLINGWOOD

They’re a pretty strong fourth, because we could very easily see them earning a home prelim in a few nights’ time, but have to be fourth nonetheless.

Collingwood 2025 joined the likes of Melbourne 2022 and Sydney 2024… and to an extent, Collingwood 2023… in being the dominant team at mid-season who then fell back towards the pack.

It worked out fine in 2023, of course. And the Swans made the Grand Final last year. It just so happens that this year’s Magpies, in an incredibly competitive season, fell all the way down into fourth – and would’ve fallen further had Port Adelaide not upset Gold Coast.

These Magpies were never a clear, dominant, runaway leader despite what the ladder suggested but they’re also much better than losing five of six games before their final-round win over Melbourne suggests.

Close game luck worked against them this year. The Magpies lost to Geelong, Gold Coast, Fremantle and Adelaide by a combined 13 points – flip just one result and they’re hosting a qualifying final instead.

And you can very fairly point to injuries as the reason they slipped at the end of the season, too. They could easily turn back into the team that sat 14-2.

Nick Daicos wins AFL players’ MVP 2025 | 04:13

But they could also fall victim to a pretty tough finals bracket. We know they can beat Adelaide in Adelaide; they were almost certainly the better team on the night, with very few teams in footy history ever losing with a +34 inside 50 differential. Play the same way on Thursday night and they should be hosting a prelim.

However should they lose to the Crows they’ll cop either GWS, who smashed them in Opening Round, or Hawthorn, who smashed them just a few weeks ago.

No team has won a flag from fourth this century – likely due to a combination of a harder qualifying final, then either a tougher semi-final opponent (since 8th rarely beats 5th) or a prelim opponent who probably finished higher on the ladder than you.

Despite losing to Gold Coast and Fremantle recently, if we were the Magpies, we’d much rather be on the other side of the bracket with the Suns or Dockers as our looming semi-final opponent.

But they aren’t. And so there’s a very real chance of a straight sets exit here, which would be pretty disastrous when you consider this list is built to win right now. That’s not to say they’re gonna be bad next year, but you don’t usually get better a year later when you’re running out the oldest team in V/AFL history. (Geelong did it in the 2022 Grand Final then missed the eight in 2023.)

The window won’t exactly be closed in 2026, but it’s wide open in 2025, so they need to take the chance that’s available to them.

Campbell hits post in heartbreaking miss | 00:41

5. HAWTHORN

We reckon the Hawks come into the finals in pretty good form.

Sure, they were fortunate the Lions didn’t kick straight in Round 24, but Sam Mitchell’s men have had a pretty strong six weeks with some very impressive results which they ended up needing to play finals – most notably smashing Collingwood. Don’t forget the very brave defeat to Adelaide in Adelaide, either.

But brave defeats were the reason they finished 8th. The Hawks have the worst record of the finalists against the rest of the top eight – 3-7, though with a very competitive percentage of 93% which speaks to how solid they’ve been.

They’ve had two bad losses all year; the really weird Gather Round game, where Port Adelaide seemed to take advantage of the emotions and made things uncompetitive by halftime, and a 51-point thumping against the Pies… which they avenged 10 rounds later with a 64-point demolition.

They lost to Geelong, Gold Coast, Brisbane, Fremantle and Adelaide by a combined 52 points, and the latter four games were all played interstate. They were live chances of winning all five of them.

Combine all of that with their record – 15-8, 120.9% – and the Hawks are the best 8th-placed finalist ever. That exact same record would’ve had them third on the ladder last year, above the eventual premiers.

Last year we predicted pre-finals that Brisbane would win the flag because we thought the bottom half of the eight was stronger than the top half. That’s not the case this year with the exception of Hawthorn, who we think are about as good as the top-four sides right now.

So if any team is ever going to make a deep run from 8th, it should be this one. And then you have to consider their potential path to glory.

The Giants are good, but not great, at home – St Kilda and Richmond almost beat them there this year, and Fremantle actually did. It’s a coin-flip game at worst.

Then if things go to plan, the Hawks could get Collingwood in an MCG semi-final, and we all saw how that match-up went a month ago. Entirely winnable.

Then they could get another MCG final, against Geelong. Their game earlier this year was a belter and we don’t think either fanbase would feel comfortable about that match-up. The Cats would be favoured, but perhaps off the double break (bye week plus qualifying final win), the Hawks could get the jump? Again, winnable.

This is the best-case scenario but it’s also entirely realistic. And just think about this year’s finals race – it’s been incredibly even for months. The Hawks happened to finish 8th but the bracket is favourable all things considered; they would have probably been worse off finishing 7th if it meant copping Fremantle away and potentially Brisbane away in a semi-final.

The 8th-placed team has won one elimination final in seven seasons – when 2020’s ‘Dirty Pies’ pipped West Coast by a point and were embarrassed by Geelong in the semi-final. The position, unsurprisingly, does not have a strong finals track record.

This would be the type of year where that script gets flipped.

Cyril steals the show with MONSTER torp! | 01:00

6. GWS GIANTS

Our big question about the Giants is whether they’re consistent enough to win four finals in a row.

They come into September with the AFL’s best record and percentage against the top eight – 6-3 and 109.7% – though their best win was all the way back on March 9, in Opening Round against Collingwood, which is so long ago it means very little.

Upsetting Geelong (twice) and Brisbane, plus beating Gold Coast twice, got them into a home final and they looked brilliant in the process. If that version of the Giants shows up four times in a row they will win the flag – they’re the last team in this ranking we think can realistically win the premiership.

But they didn’t always show up when it mattered. They lost to the Bulldogs by 88 points. They randomly lost to Port Adelaide. They got comfortably beaten at home by a Fremantle side still finding itself. And even in some of their wins they were weirdly unimpressive – the St Kilda game in Round 24, or the great escape against Richmond.

It just feels like the Giants will produce one of those stinkers at some point in September and see their season ended. And drawing Hawthorn, who always play them close, in their elimination final is pretty bad luck compared to the alternatives. (They always beat Gold Coast, and despite the mid-season result, we would’ve backed them against Fremantle.)

Maybe we’re wrong; they’ve certainly been better since the bye, including genuine improvement in the midfield to where it’s no longer a clear and obvious weakness that can be exploited. They’re getting healthier just in time for the finals, too.

They would probably need to beat three top-four teams to win the flag – Adelaide or Collingwood away, then Brisbane or Geelong away, then a Grand Final likely against one of that quartet – which feels like a bit too much. But we’ve counted them out a few times this year already so they know how to prove us wrong.

Will Hogan return for Elimination Final? | 02:13

7. FREMANTLE

Yeah, yeah, we know, we’re just hating on the Dockers again.

That worked pretty well for them going into Round 24, though. They masterfully turned doubts in their ability to beat the Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium – an entirely reasonable and fair suggestion by the wider footy community! – into a ‘nobody believes in us’ narrative which helped power their finals-clinching win.

But when we look at Fremantle, we see a clear comparison with the Collingwood side of 2022.

All through that year, we doubted the Magpies because they kept sneaking past teams in thrillers. All those close wins weren’t sustainable, we said. They have the worst percentage in the top eight and they’re not as good as their win-loss record, we said.

But then they got better. They played their best two games of the season in narrow losses to eventual Grand Finalists Geelong and Sydney – there’s that close game luck turning – and were either the best team of 2023 or at least in the conversation, eventually claiming the flag.

We suspect Dockers fans would happily accept a painful 2025 finals exit if it guaranteed them the 2026 premiership, and with how young and talented their list is, there’s every reason to believe they should be at the pointy end next year.

But right now, the Dockers just aren’t as good as their record suggests. Just like the 2022 Magpies, they won 16 games with the top eight’s worst percentage, except this year because the ladder is so top-heavy they only finished 6th and not 4th.

The stat you’ve seen around recently is that the Dockers went 7-3 against the top nine. Very good. Two of those wins were over the Bulldogs, mind you. (We rate the Bulldogs but everyone else thinks they’re frauds.)

Against the actual top eight they went 5-3, with a percentage of 89.4, the worst percentage of any top-eight team in those games. That’s heavily influenced by two massive losses to Geelong and Brisbane… the two teams they could possibly face in their semi-final.

We’re not saying the Dockers are bad. They’re definitely good – at their best, very good! But you can’t just say “they’ve won 12 of their last 14 games” and use that as analysis; you have to look deeper.

Looking deeper tells you this year’s Dockers aren’t one of the true premiership contenders… but like the 2022 Magpies, they have the potential within them to go up a notch once September arrives.

So while it would really surprise us if Freo made a prelim, we can’t rule it out, either.

Suns celebrate history ahead of final | 02:25

8. GOLD COAST SUNS

Saying they’re just happy to be here would be unfair, but losing that game to Port Adelaide was a major swing in the Suns’ chances of doing anything in their maiden finals campaign.

It’s pretty simple – instead of finishing fourth, and getting a free shot at Adelaide in a qualifying final before a likely home semi-final… they get a do-or-die trip west to face Fremantle.

And even though we don’t rate the Dockers super high, this is the sort of test the Suns have never been able to pass. They’ve only won three games at Optus Stadium – all of them over terrible versions of West Coast over the last few seasons.

Plus, they’ve lost three straight against the Dockers themselves, including at home earlier this season… another ‘shoulda-won’ game that helped cost Gold Coast the double chance.

There is a path to a prelim here, as narrow as it appears. The average margin in those three most recent losses to the Dockers was 14 points; they’re at least keeping it close, so let’s say the Suns pull the upset. Then let’s say Geelong beats Brisbane in their qualifying final.

All of a sudden we’ve got a Pineapple Grapple semi-final… and Gold Coast just thrashed Brisbane by 11 goals a month ago! We know they can beat Brisbane!

From there, you’re either getting Adelaide or Collingwood in a qualifying final, and surely the Suns’ season would not progress past that point.

But we know the Suns’ best footy is good enough to compete with anyone’s. That’s the beauty of this season; the narrow finals race has given us a top eight where anyone can beat anyone on their day. There is no one result in any of the potential September match-ups that would absolutely shock us.

This could be – should be – a really, really fun finals series.

Noble on ‘really special night’ for Suns | 05:59