Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here. And remember, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
BNZ trimmed some key term deposit rates today. We review where these levels now stand, and what could lie ahead. GoLend reduced their key rate to 7.15%. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

AUCKLAND DWELLING COMPLETIONS BOTTOM OUT
New dwelling completions in Auckland are still declining but the bottom of the slump in the Queen City could be within sight. The 1208 new homes completed in Auckland in June was down -8.6% year-on-year.

SMALL RISE IN CONSUMER SPENDING
Consumer spending again nudged above year ago levels in August, but lower interest rates and an increasing tourism rebound may finally see that trend lift higher in the coming spring and summer months, says Worldline NZ. Their August data released today shows consumer spending through all Core Retail merchants reached $3.8 bln, which is up +2.0% on year ago levels. (their data adjusts for merchants coming and going from their network.)

DAIRY PRICES DROP SHARPLY
At the overnight dairy auction, prices slumped more than -4.3% in US dollar terms. The situation was ‘saved’ somewhat by the sharpish recent fall in the NZD, so in local currency terms it was ‘only’ down -3.5%. Both the milk powders retreated sharply, with SMP down -5.8% and WMP down -5.3%. Most other milk fat commodities fell too with the notable exception of cheddar cheese which was up +3.6%.

LOW DEMAND – BUT HIGHER PRICES
Favourable logistics issues have seen exported logs rise in price unexpectedly, offsetting ‘very subdued’ domestic market demand from the general ‘malaise’ in the local economy. The August log market report is here.

FALLING NZD JUICES COMMODITY PRICE RISES
The ANZ World Commodity Price Index rose +0.7% in August from July. All components of the Index rose, except aluminium. The Index had been drifting lower since May due to falling dairy prices, but this trend reversed in August. Over the past year the index has risen +9.3%, supported by higher dairy and meat prices. The NZD Commodity Price Index rose +2.1% month-on-month, with the NZD weakening over the month. For the year the NZD index rose +14.5%.

NZX50 TURNS LOWER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was down -0.4% in a negative Wednesday session. But it is up +1.7% over the past working five days. It also up +0.2% year-to-date. And it is now up +4.3% from a year ago. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is unchanged again today so far. SkyTV, Kathmandu, Fletcher and Goodman Property Trust rise while A2 Milk, Ebos,Auckland Airport & Summerset lead the falls.

EXPANDING FASTER
Australian economic activity grew +0.6% in Q2-2025, accelerating from an upwardly revised +0.3% in Q1 and better than analyst expectations of +0.5%. Year on year Australian GDP was up +1.8%, above forecasts of +1.6% and the fastest pace since Q3 2023.

GROWING MOMENTUM
In China, the RatingDog (ex-Caixin) services PMI for August expanded faster than July and to a good level, better than expected and the fastest expansion in their services sector since May 2024. New orders grew at the strongest pace since May 2024, supported by a stronger rise in new export business, which increased at the fastest rate in six months. Like yesterday’s RatingDog factory PMI, this survey as also better than the official services PMI.

“WE SHOULD BE FREE, BUT HE SHOULDN’T”
In a short comment is support of an article that ran on Newsroom, Mike Joy has incurred the wrath of Fed Farmers who have called for him to be sanctioned. Fed Farmers seems to like free speech so long as it isn’t directed at them. The Free Speech Union is a fierce defender of “any speech” especially right-leaning speech. It will be interesting – and telling – whether the FSU jumps to Joy’s defence in this case. Fed Farmers’ double standards are just revealing their insecurity about the effect their members may be having on the environment.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are will probably be little-changed today at the short end but notable higher for longer durations. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate unchanged at 3.00% on Tuesday. The last time this rate was at 3% was in July 2022. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +6 bps at 4.42%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.77%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up another +6 bps at 4.50%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed by one business day now, and was up +5 bps at 4.42% at the end of Tuesday trade. The UST 10yr yield is up +3 bps from yesterday, now at 4.28%.

EQUITIES TURN NEGATIVE LED BY WALL STREET
The local equity market is softer in Wednesday trade, down -0.4% in a reversal of recent trends. The ASX200 however is down -1.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down -0.3%. Hong Kong unchanged with Shanghai down -0.4%. Singapore has opened down -0.3%. Wall Street is back from holiday and fell -0.7% earlier in their Tuesday trade.

OIL FIRM
The oil price in the US is now just under US$65.50/bbl and up +50 USc and the international Brent price is over US$69/bbl.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There are many more trades today but the price is back up +$1 at $57. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025 and heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD UP AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$42 from yesterday at US$3536/oz and near a new record high again

NZD SLIPS AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from this time yesterday, now at 58.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -25 bps at 89.8 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at just over 66.1 and down another -20 bps.

BITCOIN FIRMS
The bitcoin price is now at US$111,406 and up +1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just under +/- 1.4%.

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