We’ve had more than a week to whet our appetites, but at last, the 2025 AFL finals series is upon us!
And in the most even season in many a year, one of Adelaide, Geelong, Brisbane, Collingwood, GWS, Fremantle, Gold Coast or Hawthorn will be walking away with the premiership cup.
We’re no closer now to working out who that will be than we were at the start of the season six months ago; and as it stands, every team has some serious issues to solve, questions to answer and conundrums to consider ahead of a bumper opening weekend of the finals.
Ahead of four bona fide blockbusters to start September, three of which loom as genuine line-ball contests, a year in which the list of contenders has never been longer looks set for the grandest of finales.
Here are five burning questions ahead of the semi finals.
Is eighth better than first right now?
Under the old final eight system from the 1990s, the first week of finals had first on the ladder play eighth. It was closer than you think – in six years, three games were decided by 13 points or less, with only one proper bloodbath.
But since the new system was implemented in 2000, just twice in 25 seasons before now have the planets aligned for the minor premiers to face the eighth-seed in a semi final – Port Adelaide and Essendon in 2003, and West Coast and the Western Bulldogs in 2006. Both encounters saw the underdogs soundly beaten.
History is most definitely on Adelaide’s side going into Friday night’s blockbuster. Not for 42 years under any finals system has a ladder-leader bowed out in straight sets. The Crows’ brilliant home-and-away form earned them the right to two home finals and the double chance, and gives them the perfect opportunity to make amends for failing to adapt to the heat of September against Collingwood last week.
It’s easy to get caught up in the momentum of elimination final winners and feel dubious about the chances of qualifying final losers, especially now that the pre-finals bye has made the finals kookier than ever when it comes to upsets. A season like this in which the eighth-placed Hawthorn won an impressive 15 games and could have finished top four had they not narrowly lost to Brisbane in the final round just complicates things further.
But it would be silly to write the Crows off. Their form at the end of the home-and-away season was outstanding, and they entered September as a worthy top seed, if not flag favourites. They have now had a taste of September, one that should hold them in good stead as they prepare to face the same challenge all over again.
Jordan Dawson put in a stinker against the Magpies. Riley Thilthorpe too botched key moments throughout the night. It’s doubtful the Hawks can rely on either All-Australian being so down two weeks in a row.
This time last year, the brown and gold army headed to Adelaide as veritable favourites in a do-or-die semi final against a Port Adelaide team humiliated the week prior. But the Power found another gear, produced the most brutal performance of 2024, and lived to fight another day.
This Crows team is much better than last year’s Power. They remain a better side than Hawthorn, no matter what the first week of the finals showed. They would do well to remember that.
Hawthorn celebrate beating Adelaide in 2024. (Photo by Morgan Hancock/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)
Who replaces Lachie Neale?
Losing a dual Brownlow Medallist and club captain for the final three weeks of the finals would be a death knell for just about every other team in the AFL.
For Brisbane, Lachie Neale’s calf injury is a bitter blow, but by no means an utter calamity. They have the depth to cover him – and recent experience in doing just that.
Without their champion for the final three weeks of the home-and-away season, the Lions upped the roles of their three other premier on-ballers in Hugh McCluggage, Josh Dunkley and Will Ashcroft, while also giving Zac Bailey and Cam Rayner extra midfield time to compensate.
He was terrible against Geelong in the qualifying final, but Bailey’s slashing end to the home-and-away season is what netted him a maiden All-Australian blazer, and his speed, poise and class when pushed into the midfield is a key point of difference for the Lions for the remainder of the season.
He’s a lever Chris Fagan didn’t pull when the Lions were hammered by Gold Coast in Round 20’s QClash – Bailey didn’t attend a single centre bounce, while Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson controlled proceedings from stoppages all day long. You can pretty much guarantee he’ll be deployed around the ball at the Gabba on Saturday night.
In many ways, Fagan and the reigning premiers face the exact same test Chris Scott’s Cats passed with flying colours last week – how to stop an opponent that dominated in a key aspect in recent home-and-away encounters.
Geelong denied Brisbane any speed of ball movement from half-back, cutting off their most plentiful scoring source from their last three wins over the Cats, with pressure, positioning, and a single-minded focus on what they wanted to achieve defensively.
Fagan must find a way, without his best clearance-winner, to shut down the Suns’ mighty midfield double punch, restrict the influence of Jarrod Witts, a clearly superior ruckman to the honest Darcy Fort, and prevent the Suns taking control of a territory battle that the Lions need to win to keep their season alive.
It’s an enormous challenge for the reigning champs. We’re about to find out just how much fire in the belly the Lions have left.
Lachie Neale will miss the rest of the finals series. (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
Can the Suns tag McCluggage?
Mullin’s masterclass on Friday night means taggers are back in vogue – and for Hugh McCluggage, that means for the rest of the finals series, the question of whether to run with him will be asked.
McCluggage has dominated the Suns in the recent past – even in their 66-point win back in Round 20, the Lions star had 28 disposals, seven clearances and a goal to be their clear best. As the Cats proved, stop him, and cut the heart of the Lions midfield – especially with Lachie Neale on the sidelines.
It means Alex Davies might be just as important as Rowell and Anderson to Saturday night’s QClash. Brought in for their last clash with the Lions specifically to keep tabs on Neale at stoppages, Davies did his job so brilliantly – 30 disposals and ten tackles while keeping Neale to just three clearances – that he hasn’t left the team, or the starting midfield, since.
A bigger body than Mullin, McCluggage’s elite endurance running will be tough to stop around the ground for Davies- but with enough support from teammates like what Mullin received in the qualifying final, there’s no reason a tighter tag than usual isn’t achievable.
The question is, does Damien Hardwick go for it, or does he back his outstanding midfield to beat the Lions head-to-head?
The gut says the latter – Caleb Serong and Andrew Brayshaw weren’t run with in the elimination final, and Anderson and Rowell won the day there. With no Neale, the Suns probably shade the midfield duel on paper at least – and it’s in that battle the fate of this match lies.
Who comes in … and out?
Neale aside, finals week 1 was mercifully light on major injuries for anyone – though post-weekend news of Calsher Dear’s hamstring strain is a blow to the Hawks. With no suspensions to worry about either, the Crows and Suns in particular can focus on picking their best available 23, however that might look.
Let’s start with the Crows. Izak Rankine remains suspended, though with season alive if they can recover to make the grand final. But with so much at stake, you’d have to think the dice will be rolled with Josh Rachele, especially given how impotent the Crows looked at ground level inside 50 against Collingwood.
It has been more than two months since Rachele suffered the knee injury against Melbourne that seemed a season-ender for the young goalsneak. Unlike Josh Weddle, the Crows haven’t been able to battle-test him in a reserves final – if picked, he’d go in cold, with no way of proving his match fitness. Could he be a sneaky substitute candidate to offer the Crows a spark in the final quarter of a tense final?
As for who goes out, Luke Pedlar’s three goals has locked him into the starting team, leaving four options: a like-for-like small forward swap for youngster Zac Taylor, ousting veteran qualifying final sub Brodie Smith, who made a key error with a blazed-away bomb late against the Pies, reshuffling the team by removing Mitch Hinge, who was subbed out after an ineffectual performance, or radically shaking up the forward line structure by dumping the out-of-form Darcy Fogarty. Rachele as sub for Smith would be my pick.
The Lions should have it simple: with their injury list all season-enders, Bruce Reville, who was stiffed to be dropped for the qualifying final in the first place, comes straight in for Neale. Sam Marshall probably stays as sub, while the only other debate is whether Oscar McInerney should be recalled for Darcy Fort – unlikely, given he was beaten in the ruck by Box Hill’s Ned Reeves’ in the Lions’ VFL semi final loss.
The Suns are surely unchanged – David Swallow’s wretched kick to cause a turnover that led to Freo’s go-ahead goal was mitigated by his ice-cool final minute set shot to win the game, and it’s doubtful anyone else on the list offers enough as sub for Damien Hardwick to change tacks now. Sam Clohesy and Will Graham are best 22 players out for weeks with long-term injuries, but selecting either would be an enormous risk at this stage of the season.
Dear’s injury, cruel as it is, prevents a difficult decision for Sam Mitchell, with Mitch Lewis almost certain to come straight back in after being dropped for the elimination final. It means no four-key forward structure for the second week running, but after it worked against the Giants it might not have been the rung to pull anyway. Henry Hustwaite in particular was dominant in Box Hill’s VFL semi final, while Luke Breust offers September experience, but Sam Butler would be stiff to go out after nailing a clutch final-quarter goal against GWS. The only other candidate to be left out is sub Changkuoth Jiath, who did some nice things after coming on and offers an injection of speed late in games. Lewis for Dear should be the only change.
Decisions, decisions …
Can the winners trouble the Pies and Cats?
Before the advent of the pre-finals bye, September beyond week one was just about a foregone conclusion.
Between 2000 and 2015, just five qualifying final losers of 32 went out in straight sets – three of them across 2014 and 2015, as it happens – while of 32 preliminary finals, only four were won by teams who took the scenic route there.
Things are different now – whether it’s the week off that has caused it or just finals getting weirder and more even over the years is up for debate, but in eight years of the pre-finals bye (excluding 2021, when there wasn’t one), six of 16 qualifying final losers have been bundled out in the semis, while seven qualifying final winners have been dusted in the prelims. Wacky times indeed.
That’s why, on paper at least, the two winners out of this weekend can head into dates with Geelong and Collingwood full of confidence that they can upset the two clear premiership frontrunners.
But it’s still hard to shake the feeling, so comprehensive and brilliant were the Cats and Pies’ qualifying final wins for vastly different reasons, that it’s going to be tougher this year than ever before to topple out our clear top two seeds. With Brisbane dealing with injuries galore, Adelaide looking vulnerable under the September heat, and Gold Coast and Hawthorn now facing brutally tough finals on the road before they can even think about what’s next, there are good reasons why none of the semi finalists seem capable of doing what the Lions did last year or the Western Bulldogs in 2016, and winning it all from the lower rungs of the eight.
In fact, here’s a tip bound to blow up in my face – I only give one of these four a chance of winning a prelim: the Hawks.
Either the Lions or Suns would need to deal with 90,000 fever-pitch Collingwood supporters at the MCG to win through to a grand final. For the latter, it would be nearly double the biggest crowd they’ve ever played in front of; while the Lions have a much weaker team, and the Pies clearly stronger, than their season-shaping triumph over them late in the home-and-away season. With the semi final set to be tremendously hard-fought, I’m sceptical either will have enough left in the tank.
Adelaide, too, would need to achieve something they’ve struggled with even during their run to the minor premiership, and beat a contender on the road. Without Izak Rankine, against a Cats team that conquered them at the Adelaide Oval in Gather Round, who they have just one win against since 2018, it’s surely too much to overcome.
The Hawks, though, are the only team of the four for whom victory would set up a ‘home’ preliminary final. You can bet they’d have more fans in the stands than the Cats in a rematch of the 2008 big dance – and countless other classics since then – and something tells me that rather than sap their energy, a famous win over the Crows on the road would inspire a group made for the big stage to even greater heights, just like the Bulldogs back in 2016.
The Hawks have the speed to nullify the Cats’ blistering run, the defence to combat Jeremy Cameron and co. far better than the Lions managed last Friday night, and for all the question marks on their midfield, Jai Newcombe has been the best man afield in all three of the finals he’s played in. As good as Oisin Mullin was to nullify Hugh McCluggage in the qualifying final, the Hawk’s raw strength presents another challenge altogether.
And here’s the clincher – every single Cats supporter, if not the players and coaches, would dread facing the Hawks in the penultimate round more than any other team.
The peculiarity is the Hawks are probably the unlikeliest semi-finalist to win this weekend. But if they do … oh boy.