Daily Natural Gas
Natural gas prices are hovering just below key resistance at the 50-day moving average of $3.200 and a short-term pivot at $3.238. A confirmed breakout above $3.238 could trigger an acceleration toward $3.579, a level with few obstacles in between. However, recent gains from $2.695 to $3.198 appear largely driven by short-covering, not fresh buying interest. This suggests the market may need a pullback into a stronger support zone before any sustainable rally.
On the downside, support lies in the retracement zone between $2.947 and $2.887. A move into this range, followed by renewed buying, could result in a secondary higher bottom—potentially positioning the market for a retest and breakout above $3.238. If $2.887 fails, however, look for a sharp decline back toward the $2.695–$2.647 major support area.
Weather Outlook Supports Limited Near-Term Demand
Short-term weather forecasts project low demand for the next three days, with high pressure dominating the North and extreme heat in the South. Demand is expected to rise to moderate levels afterward. While this isn’t a bullish demand setup, it may be enough to support prices if technical support holds and new buyers step in.
Market Forecast: Cautiously Bullish with a Key Support Test Ahead
Natural gas remains technically neutral but sets up for a potential bullish breakout if it pulls back to $2.947–$2.887 and attracts fresh buying. If support holds, a challenge of $3.238 remains on the table. A break below $2.887, however, would flip the outlook bearish quickly. Traders should watch for price action around these key levels before positioning.